Cheltenham Festival Day 3 Selections
Mares Novices’ Hurdle
Selection: Bambino Fever
No favourite has prevailed in this contest since 2018 and, having dominated the race in its early years with victories in the first five runnings, Willie Mullins has not managed better than third place in the last five renewals. That statistical trend may appear slightly discouraging on the surface, particularly given the expectations often attached to runners from the Mullins yard. However, trends can only tell part of the story and, in the case of BAMBINO FEVER, the individual profile of the horse gives her a big chance.
She emerged as one of the standout performers in bumpers last season, displaying a combination of pace, tactical speed and professionalism that set her apart. Her ability to travel strongly through races and quicken when required suggested she possessed the attributes necessary to make a smooth transition to hurdles. So far, that expectation has largely been borne out. Despite suffering defeat on her hurdling debut, she shaped like a mare still learning her craft rather than one lacking ability, jumping with enough fluency to suggest obstacles would ultimately play to her strengths.
That defeat came at the hands of Oldschool Outlaw, who must be afforded considerable respect after subsequently reinforcing the form with a decisive success in Grade 3 company. That performance indicated the Naas race was run to a strong standard and adds substance to the form line. Nevertheless, context is important when assessing Bambino Fever’s defeat. At the time, the Mullins yard was operating below its usual strike rate, which may partly explain why she was unable to fully capitalise on her ability that day.
With the stable now appearing to be back in stronger form and with the benefit of that initial hurdling experience behind her, there is every reason to expect further progression. If she continues to improve both technically and physically, Bambino Fever has the profile of a runner capable of reversing that earlier form and establishing herself as a leading contender in this field.
Mares’ Hurdle
Selection: Wodhooh
This race looks much simpler to assess now that Lossiemouth is not part of the field. Her absence removes the clear standout performer and in doing so leaves the race looking significantly weaker than it might have otherwise been. When you look through the remaining runners, Wodhooh immediately stands out as the one with the most convincing profile.
She is currently unbeaten, which is always an impressive record to bring into a race like this. Her performances so far have been consistently solid and she has never looked like a horse who is running out of ideas when challenged.One of the key pieces of form to consider is her run behind Lossiemouth at Aintree last season, where she pushed that top-class mare close. Considering how good Lossiemouth has proven to be, that performance now looks even stronger in hindsight. To get as close as she did to such a high-quality rival suggests that Wodhooh herself is a mare of considerable ability.
This season she has continued to progress and, importantly, she hasn’t put a foot wrong in any of her runs. That level of consistency is exactly what you want to see heading into a championship race. She appears straightforward, reliable, and capable of producing her best performance when it matters.I’m not particularly keen on Jade De Grugy coming back to hurdles after chasing. Switching disciplines like that can sometimes work, but it can also create uncertainty, and I’d rather side with the horse who has been doing everything right over hurdles all season. In my opinion Wodhooh sets the standard here. If she gets around without any mishaps and runs to the level she has shown so far, then I believe she will take a lot of beating. Quite simply, if everything goes smoothly for her, she wins.
Stayers’ Hurdle
Selection: Bob Olinger
I’m going to stick with the veteran Bob Olinger here, who returns as the defending champion after winning this race last season. Now an 11-year-old, he may not be the youngest horse in the field but he showed twelve months ago that he still retains plenty of ability. His victory in this race last year was extremely impressive, as he bolted up and comfortably saw off Teahupoo in what turned out to be a commanding performance.
Earlier this season he finished a steady second behind Teahupoo on his reappearance in the Christmas Hurdle. That run looked like a perfectly acceptable seasonal debut and suggested he still retains the level required to compete at the top level over staying hurdles. I get the impression that Henry de Bromhead has taken a patient approach with him this season, carefully managing his campaign with the aim of having him at peak fitness for this race once again.
De Bromhead has a strong record when it comes to preparing horses for the Cheltenham Festival, and it would be no surprise if Bob Olinger has been trained specifically with this defence in mind. Horses who have already proven themselves at the festival often return with a big run, particularly when their preparation has been geared around a single target.Ground conditions could also play a role in how this race unfolds. If the ground stays on the decent side, that should only enhance Bob Olinger’s chances. Teahupoo, who is likely to be one of his main rivals again, generally prefers softer conditions and tends to produce his very best form when the ground becomes testing. If those softer conditions do not materialise, it could level the playing field somewhat.
Looking at some of the other runners, there are also questions to answer. Kabral Du Mathan has shown ability but I’m not completely convinced he will truly stay this demanding trip. Honesty Policy also has plenty to prove after being beaten by Impose Toi on his first run of the season, and that leaves doubts about whether he is ready to compete at this level.
Overall it looks like an open renewal, but not necessarily the strongest one we’ve seen in recent years. Given that, I’m happy to stick with the proven course-and-distance winner and side with Bob Olinger once again.
Ryanair Chase
Selection: Fact To File
This is one of the more straightforward selections of the week for me. The performance from Fact To File at the Dublin Racing Festival was nothing short of sensational and marked him out as a horse of the very highest class. Watching that run, it genuinely looked like the performance of a potential Gold Cup winner in the making. Because of that level of ability, dropping back into the Ryanair Chase rather than stepping up into the Gold Cup looks like a much easier assignment for him. The Ryanair is still a very competitive Grade 1 race, but based on what we saw in Dublin he appears to have the class edge over most of his likely rivals.
His jumping was sharp, accurate throughout that performance, and that will be crucial around Cheltenham where mistakes can quickly cost you ground. If he jumps another clean round here and runs anywhere near the level he showed at the Dublin Racing Festival, then it’s very difficult to see him being beaten.
The addition of Jonbon, Banbridge and Impaire Et Passe does make his task a little more interesting as all three of those horses on their day can put up big performances but I'm still happy to stick with Fact To File here.
Pertemps Final Handicap Hurdle
Selection: Supremely West
Supremely West might look a little obvious now, but I’ve actually been with him since he secured his qualification for this race. The key piece of form that makes him so interesting is his run behind Ma Shantou. At the time Ma Shantou was rated 129, but he has since improved significantly and is now rated 154 and lining up in the Stayers’ Hurdle. That level of progression tells you just how strong that form line actually was.
What is particularly interesting is that despite several more runs since then, Supremely West still finds himself on a mark of just 135. That suggests he is potentially very well handicapped if he returns to the level hinted at earlier in the season. Sometimes horses can go through a few quieter runs while connections work towards a particular target, and that may well be the case here.His fifth-place finish on his second run at Cheltenham can probably be upgraded slightly as well. On that occasion he found himself on the wrong part of the track, which can make a big difference on the New Course depending on how the race unfolds. Despite that disadvantage he still ran with plenty of credit.
In his subsequent runs at Sandown and Haydock he was never really put into the race in a serious way, which again suggests those outings may have been more about maintaining his mark and keeping him fresh rather than trying to win. All of that points towards the Pertemps Final having been the long-term plan. The Skelton team are well known for targeting handicaps at the Cheltenham Festival and preparing their horses to peak on the day, they did so with Madara earlier in the week. They are experts at readying one for these races, and when they have a horse who looks potentially well treated it’s always worth paying attention. Given the strength of the form behind him and the way his campaign has been managed, I think Supremely West has been laid out for this race and could be very well handicapped when it matters.
Day 3 selections
Prices are with BetMGM
1:20 Bambino Fever 11/10
2:40 Wodhooh 8/11
3:20 Bob Olinger 7/1
4:00 Fact To File 10/11
4:40 Supremely West 10/3
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