Key Points
- Today’s betting tip is flying under the radar at a big price
- This horse has proven ability in a weak Champion Hurdle renewal
- His participation could directly impact the market favourite
It’s time to look ahead to the 2027 Cheltenham Festival again! I have already covered the
Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, the
Champion Chase, and the
Cheltenham Gold Cup, but now we move onto another of next year’s feature races, the Champion Hurdle.
If you’re new around here, allow me to introduce myself! I’m the resident horse racing expert at Betting.co.uk and I’ve been here since March 2025, so this will be my third time providing Cheltenham Festival tips. Of course, it’s not just antepost betting tips that I publish. I also produce a range of
free horse racing tips, as well as non-tipping content like horses and trainers to follow, educational guides, and big race trends.
Betting advice
- 2027 Champion Hurdle -
State Man
@ 20/1 -
0.5pt Each Way
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Lossiemouth is the one to beat but there is no value!
The 2026 Champion Hurdle winner - Lossiemouth, is the one they all have to beat again in 2027. However, the market hasn’t missed her obvious chase with her installed as the 2/1-5/2 favourite, with the rest of the market all at double or triple figure prices. In this scenario, you need to try and find value and I think I have done exactly that. In the rest of this article, I’ll break down my reasoning.
State Man is flying under the radar at a big price
As I worked my way through the Champion Hurdle antepost betting market, I was pretty shocked to see State Man priced at 20/1 with multiple bookmakers. Now I do appreciate he will be 10 years old when the race takes place, and he is returning this season following an injury. However, even when factoring that in, the price feels too big.
I’d argue that with the lack of depth, it would be harsh for him to be half the current price. If we knew for sure that he would come back anywhere near his best, I don’t think he would be any bigger than 5/1. I cannot help but think other than the usual recency bias has shaped the antepost betting. Because State Man hasn’t been seen on the track, he is being overlooked and underestimated here.
State Man has proven ability in a weak Champion Hurdle renewal
Many of the horses entered for the 2027 Champion Hurdle simply aren’t in the same league as State Man. He is a 12-time Grade 1 winner who often goes under the radar because he’s not flashy, he just gets the job done. Although the trends suggest that 10 is too old to win this race, this is far from being a vintage renewal and I don’t think we would even need to see the best version of State Man for him to win this.
Of State Man’s 12 Grade 1 victories, one of them was the 2024 Champion Hurdle. He would have won the 2025 renewal as well if he hadn’t fallen at the final hurdle in a drama-packed race. His CV also boasts three Irish Champion Hurdles at Leopardstown, and a further three Punchestown Champion Hurdles. As such, his ability level is there for all to see. With many others in this race is more a case of hoping they’ll progress into Champion Hurdle horses rather than being there already.
State Man’s participation could directly impact Lossiemouth
What could also make this race interesting is that State Man was the reason Lossiemouth didn’t run in the 2025 Champion Hurdle. Paul Townend was booked to ride State Man, and the Closutton camp couldn’t see Lossiemouth beating him. Rather than Lossiemouth ending up as just another runner in the race, they opted to go for the weaker Mares’ Hurdle instead.
Back in April, after Lossiemouth had won the Champion Hurdle, Willie Mullins was quoted as saying:
“[Paul]
would never have gotten off State Man to ride Lossiemouth any day of the week and told me that more than once over the last couple of years.”
Obviously Paul has every right to change his mind in the event that State Man regresses and/or Lossiemouth progresses. But if the State Man we know and love comes back next season, his obvious target would be the Champion Hurdle. That in turn would upset the punters, as Lossiemouth might be sent back to the Mares Hurdle! If the event that did happen, 20/1 for State Man would look outrageous!
Can State Man stop Lossiemouth?
In a weak-looking renewal of this prestigious race, I think 20/1 is quite an insulting price for State Man. But you do want value prices for antepost bets, which we’ve definitely got here, especially as he could easily go off at a fraction of that price on the day.
The negative is that he’s returning from an injury, so he will need to prove he is the same horse after a lengthy absence. Likewise, time is against him as he will be 10 years old in 2027. That said, he doesn’t need to be at his peak to finish in the top three in this company.
All facts considered, I feel State Man is a value bet at 20/1. Many of the other contenders may not develop into the calibre of horse required to win this race, whereas State Man is proven, and this race is his target.
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