5 horses to follow across the Cheltenham Showcase Meeting
This weekend marks the much-anticipated return of National Hunt racing to Cheltenham, and the Showcase Meeting traditionally provides our first real glimpse of emerging talent for the season ahead. It’s often a fixture that unearths future stars, horses who make their mark here in October before going on to shine at the spring festivals.
History shows just how informative this meeting can be. Jazzy Matty, for example, finished second at last year’s renewal before returning in March to capture the Grand Annual Chase at the Cheltenham Festival. Many others have followed a similar path, making this an early meeting well worth close attention.
With that in mind, I’ve got some
horse racing predictions, who could also be worth following as the season unfolds, along with the
best priced betting odds on this weekend's racing.
Betting Predictions on Friday at the Cheltenham Showcase
King of Kingsfield the One to Beat
1:50 2m (1m7f199y) (Old) Holland Cooper 'Chasing Excellence' Novices' Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2)
The horse to side with here is King of Kingsfield, representing the formidable Gordon Elliott yard. Since going chasing, this six-year-old has taken notable strides forward, winning three of his five starts over fences and looking a much-improved performer this season. His most recent victory came in a Grade 3 contest at Punchestown, where he produced a polished jumping display to comfortably see off the talented mare Birdie Or Bust, despite giving her 7lb. That effort marked another step up in class and suggested there could be more to come. Elliott’s decision to turn him out again just nine days later speaks volumes about the horse’s wellbeing, and with Jack Kennedy retaining the ride, King of Kingsfield looks primed to go close once again.
Of the main dangers, Country Mile and Alnilam reappear after contesting a competitive novice chase at Uttoxeter between them. The strength of that form remains open to question, and both may need to progress further to trouble the Elliott-trained horse. Country Mile, in particular, shapes as one who could find success just below graded level, with races such as the 2m4f Novices’ Handicap Chase at Cheltenham a realistic future target if they go up in trip or if they chose to stick at 2m he could well go the Jazzy Matty route and go for the Grand Annual as a novice. Should he continue to improve to grade 1 level, then something like the Manifesto Novices’ Chase at Aintree could come into the picture later in the season.
For now, however, King of Kingsfield sets the benchmark. With proven graded form, sharp recent fitness, and top connections behind him, he looks the one they all have to beat.
Horse to follow: King Of Kingsfield - Odds 9/4 with
SpreadEx
Un Sens A La Vie Can Continue His Promising Start
3:00 2m½f (2m87y) (Old) Oddschecker Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) (Registered As The Sharp Novices' Hurdle) (GBB Race) (Class 1)
The horse to keep onside tomorrow is Un Sens A La Vie, who created a strong impression when making a successful hurdling debut at Market Rasen. He jumped with fluency and professionalism throughout, bar a slight error at the final flight, but quickly regained his composure to put the race to bed in decisive fashion. It was the performance of a horse with plenty of raw ability and a bright future. There have been inevitable comparisons to Potters Charm, a horse from the same connections who enjoyed a productive campaign last season. If Un Sens A La Vie proves to be on a similar level, or even better, he looks more than capable of taking this next step. His blend of speed and stamina should make the 2m trip no issue, and given that he’s already a 3m point-to-point winner, he shapes as the type who could eventually develop into a Turners Novices’ Hurdle contender at the
Cheltenham Festival, should his progression continue as expected. A win here would likely see him step up in class for something like the Grade 1 Formby Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree, before a potential tilt at one of the spring festival grade 1's.
Among the dangers, for last years winning connections Fortune De Mer has clear potential but was far too keen on his hurdling debut. He’ll need to settle much better if he’s to fulfil his promise. At this stage, he looks the type who may thrive in a big-field handicap later in the season. Races such as the Lanzarote Hurdle at Kempton, or at the Cheltenham Festival, the Martin Pipe or Coral Cup, could suit if stepped up in trip. Should connections opt to keep him at 2m, the Greatwood or County Hurdle would be more realistic spring targets.
For now, though, Un Sens À La Vie looks a novice of genuine quality, progressive, talented, and well placed to make it two from two over hurdles.
Horse to follow: Un Sens A La Vie - Odds: 7/4 with SpeadEX
Dalston Lad the One to Watch in Competitive Novice Hurdle
4:10 2m4f (2m3f200y) (Old) Champions: Full Gallop Streaming On ITVX Novices' Hurdle (GBB Race) (Class 2)
This race was won last year by the aforementioned Potters Charm, who went on to establish himself as a high-class performer with victories at Grade 2 and Grade 1 level before taking his chance in the Turners Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival. This season’s renewal once again brings together a promising group of novices, several of whom could be bound for bigger stages later in the campaign.
One of the more interesting contenders is Arch Empire, trained by Gordon Elliott. He’s a horse who has shown plenty of ability in defeat, notably when finishing close behind Davy Crockett at Listowel, where a couple of untidy jumps arguably cost him a much closer finish. Similar mistakes proved costly again when chasing home Love Me Tender, so his jumping will need to sharpen up if he’s to land this competitive contest.
The one who makes most appeal, however, is Dalston Lad from the Dan Skelton yard. The stable has a fine record of introducing talented types at this meeting, Valgrand being a good example last season and Dalston Lad looks another who could make a big impression. A dual bumper winner, he wasn’t disgraced when down the field in the Champion Bumper, and connections have already suggested that he’ll improve significantly over longer trips. Speaking on The Final Flight Podcast, Harry Skelton noted that the gelding is likely to appreciate “two and a half miles, likely even three” in time, making this test with rain-softened ground on the cards an ideal starting point. Receiving weight from a few of his main rivals only strengthens his claims, and he’s one to take a chance on if schooling has gone well at home.
Should he deliver as expected, Dalston Lad could soon be stepping up in class, with races such as the Grade 1 Formby Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree and the Turners Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham potential long-term targets.
Horse to follow: Dalston Lad - Odds: 5/2 with SpreadEX
Betting Predictions on Saturday at the Cheltenham Showcase
Lisnemult Lad an Interesting Each-Way Proposition in Pertemps Qualifier
2:55 3m (2m7f208y) (Old) Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Pertemps Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race) (Class 2)
Last year’s renewal was won by The Wallpark for Gordon Elliott, a horse who went on to contest the Stayers’ Hurdle at Cheltenham, underlining how influential this race can be as an early pointer to the spring festivals. With the Pertemps Final again the likely long-term target for several of these runners, this contest often serves as a crucial first stepping stone.
One who makes plenty of appeal at an each-way price is Lisnemult Lad, who returns to hurdles off a mark of 134 and looks well treated on his best form. The booking of the talented Conor Stone-Walsh catches the eye claiming 3lbs, and the fact the gelding arrives here fresh after a break should be no negative. His most recent start came over fences, when finishing a fine second to Gentleman De Mee in the Topham Chase at Aintree, a strong piece of form by any measure. With a chase mark of 139, he effectively runs 8lb lower back over hurdles, which could prove significant if he’s ready to roll first time out.
Should Lisnemult Lad not manage to win, a top-four finish would still mark him down as a serious early contender for the Pertemps Final at Cheltenham in March. Connections may yet opt to send him back over fences later in the season, but a strong run here would confirm he’s on the right track for another big campaign.
Horse to follow: Lisnamult Lad - Odds 18/1 with
Betway
Welcome To Cartries Ready to Shine
4:05 3m1f (Old) William Hill Extra Places With Bog 'Chasing Excellence' Novices' Chase (GBB Race) (Class 2)
This race has a strong recent history of producing future stars, with several past runners going on to feature prominently, and even win, at the major spring festivals. It remains to be seen whether this year’s field will yield another National Hunt Chase contender for the Cheltenham Festival, but one runner who certainly fits that mould to win this race is Welcome To Cartries.
The Paul Nicholls-trained gelding makes his seasonal reappearance here and wears first-time cheekpieces, which could help sharpen him up on. Importantly, he comes into this fresh and looks every inch an out-and-out stayer, the type who should relish the 3m1f trip. The further he goes, the better he’s likely to be seen to effect.
As a hurdler, Welcome To Cartries showed more than enough promise to suggest a bright future over fences. Then switched to fences his effort behind Handstands in the Grade 2 Esher Novices’ Chase was particularly encouraging, and he followed that up with another solid run in Grade 1 company behind The Jukebox Man in the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase. The ground was on the lively side that day, which may not have suited him ideally, so Saturday’s expected softer conditions should play much more to his strengths. Now returning of a mark of 133, there’s every reason to believe he has further improvement to come. Should he make a winning start to here, a tilt at any staying handicaps would be on the cards.
Welcome To Cartries looks the type to thrive as the season progresses, and this could be the start of a very exciting campaign.
Horse to follow: Welcome to Cartries - Odds 4/1 with Betway
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