Key Points
- This horse bumped into a freak winner last time out
- My betting tip is a progressive Chaser for an in-form trainer
- Whatever happens, my selection will have a lovely racing weight
Welcome back to another week of articles! In this one, I have looked ahead to the £160,000 Paddy Power Gold Cup on Saturday, which is the feature race of The November Meeting at Cheltenham this weekend. I’m keen to move early before the declaration stage. While this will be antepost rules (no money back if the horse doesn’t run), the trainer has confirmed this is the target for him.
If you’re new to my content here, I’m RacingGav and I’m the resident horse racing expert here at Betting.co.uk. As a general rule, I produce four to five articles per week, which are predominately focused on daily betting tips. I’ve been here for eight months and thankfully, my free betting tips have shown a very healthy profit to date! So far, my tips have produced a ROI of +28.24%, which increases to +33.37% with BOG (Best Odds Guaranteed) included. BOG is only restricted to UK and Irish Horse racing and Greyhounds.
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Betting advice
- 15 November 2025 - Cheltenham - Paddy Power Gold Cup -
Vincenzo
@ 6/1 (4 places) -
0.75pt each way
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At the time of writing, antepost odds of 5/1 and 6/1 are widely available for Vincenzo. However, only one bookie offering 6/1, is offering four places, and that is bet365! In addition to the value price and place terms, bet365 also has a superb sign up offer. If you
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Vincenzo could be the next winner for Sam Thomas
With five winners from nine races to his credit, Sam Thomas must be pinching himself. What a fantastic start to the 2025/26 National Hunt season for his yard! And I believe that his winning form can continue through to the Paddy Power Gold Cup. In this article, I’ll break down why I think Vincenzo will be the star of the show on Saturday, so make sure you keep reading!
Vincenzo bumped into a freak winner last time out
I really felt for Sam Thomas in March, as he looked to have a Greatwood Gold Cup victory nailed with Vincenzo, only for it to be cruelly taken away from him on the run-in. Between the second last and the final fence, there were only two contenders, Saint Segal and Vincenzo.
As they approached the final fence, Vincenzo was coming to reel in the leader. Dylan Johnston delivered Vincenzo after the last to lead, and at that point, Dylan must have thought he had won the race. Little did he know that Sean Bowen had galvanised Booster Bob from behind. That one was almost tailed off earlier in the race, but under the Sean Bowen drive, Booster Bob flew home at the finish, winning by just over a length at the line.
On the bright side, being beaten may well have set Vincenzo up for a big day of his own. If Booster Bob had tailed off, and Vincenzo had passed Saint Segal on his way to victory, I’m sure the handicapper would have had more to say than the 3lb rise Vincenzo received. Personally, I’d look at it more in line with his RPR of 143, rather than the revised rating of 137 given by the official handicapper. Whether there is a little sympathy in that mark, I’m not sure, but it certainly gives Vincenzo every chance of getting redemption this time.
Judging from the form we have seen so far, there is potentially even more to come from Vincenzo. He has only had thirteen runs during his career to date with just four of those over fences. Therefore, this seven-year-old is likely still progressing, and most likely has not hit his ceiling yet.
In his four Chase starts to date, Vincenzo has produced RPRs of 132, 130, 137 and 143. As you can see, the figures are going the right way. You could argue that his second Chase start was a small backward step, but in hindsight, he finished second to a subsequent Grade 1 winner in Kalif Du Berlais that day. If you take that into consideration and mark the run up, it looks like a truly progressive profile.
Not to mention that Vincenzo is running for Sam Thomas, a trainer who is currently in red hot form. At the time of writing, Sam has produced five winners from nine runners in the last fourteen days. One of those wins was a lovely performance from Steel Ally, who won the £50,000 Graduation Chase at Carlisle on Monday. Looking back further, Sam Thomas also landed the Welsh Champion Hurdle at Chepstow’s “Welsh Racing Festival” meeting in October with Celtic Dino.
Whatever happens, Vincenzo will race off a lovely weight
There are currently 16 entries for the Paddy Power Gold cup, and as things stand, Vincenzo is set to carry a beautiful racing weight of 10st 8lb. In reality, this would actually be 10st 5lb. Dylan Johnston is already booked for the ride and he takes off a valuable 3lb claim.
However, between now and Saturday things are likely to change. Matata may not be declared, as connections seem to be keeping their options open rather than committing to a certain race for him. If Matata doesn’t run, the weights will rise significantly. Assuming Jagwar stays in, the weights will rise by 9lb. This would be a worry for some, including Jagwar himself, and Bad, both of whom are already close to the top weights. However, Vincenzo would only rise from 10st 8lb to 11st 3lb and again, with Dylan’s claim, that would be 11st, which is still a lovely weight.
Can Vincenzo continue a fantastic 2025/26 season for Sam Thomas?
All facts considered, I think Vincenzo has an excellent chance in the Paddy Power Gold Cup. Although gut-wrenching, his defeat in the Greatwood Gold Cup leaves him attractively handicapped here. That’s before factoring in his progressive profile and further improvement that’s likely to come. With the stable in great form, his ability to run well fresh and the forecast rain all looking in his favour, there is an awful lot to like. The fact that Sam Thomas sees him as a potential three-miler in time bodes well too. For a horse to get up that Cheltenham hill at the end of the race, you need plenty of stamina.
On the negative side, his only experience at Cheltenham was over a shorter trip on the New Course, rather than the Old Course they’ll race over on Saturday. The flip side to Vincenzo being unexposed and progressive is that he’s not hugely experienced. He has only had four Chase starts so far, and one of those was over an intermediate trip. That said, he did handle the Greatwood Gold Cup well. To some extent, we are also gambling on his race fitness, but I’m sure Sam will have him ready for this and if he felt he needed a preparation run, he could have given him one.
At 6/1 with four places on offer, I think Vincenzo looks a fantastic each way bet for the Paddy Power Gold Cup. The fact that Sam Thomas has seemingly saved Vincenzo for this race also speaks volumes. He could have run him anywhere, but instead he has opted to bring him straight from the Greatwood Gold Cup to the £160,000 Paddy Power Gold Cup off a mark of 134. He certainly deserves to win this one, after being denied by Booster Bob at Newbury in such an unbelievable way. Given the negatives raised though, and the risks that are always attached to antepost betting, I’m trimming this bet down to 0.75pt each way.
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