Key Points
- Today’s horse racing betting tip is back down to his last winning mark
- It looks likely this horse will get his ideal ground conditions here
- His stable are already in red hot form this month
With only modest racing on Tuesday, I’ve decided to look at the antepost markets for the festive season instead. One horse in particular stood out, at a fantastic price of 20/1. I’m very keen to get a bet on him now, especially as there are some interesting factors in his favour.
If you’re just discovering my content here on Betting.co.uk for the first time, I’m Gav, better known as RacingGav and I’m the resident horse racing expert here. My role is largely concerned with providing
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King George VI Chase. Alongside those, I also produce educational guides, and big race trends. Speaking of the latter, I’ll be publishing a trends article for the Welsh Grand National in the near future.
Betting advice
- Saturday 27 December 2025 - Welsh Grand National -
Nassalam
@ 20/1 (4 places) -
1pt each way
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I think the Welsh Grand National has been Nassalam’s target!
Peaking at an official rating of 161, Nassalam was badly handicapped off the back of an exceptional performance in extraordinary conditions. Connections subsequently aimed high, and entered him for the Cheltenham Gold Cup and the Aintree Grand National, as they had nothing to lose. Beyond that, their aim has been to get him handicapped well enough to land another big pot, and entering him for the Welsh Grand National seems a logical choice.
Nassalam is back down to his last winning mark
After an emphatic 34-length win in the 2023 renewal of the Welsh Grand National, Nassalam was slapped with a 16lb rise from 145 to 161, which Gary Moore was less than impressed with. And I must say that I agree with him. While it was exceptional to see, the ground conditions must be taken into account, considering that only five out of 19 runners finished the race.
With a very high mark of 161, Gary Moore decided Nassalam should have a crack at the Cheltenham Gold Cup and Aintree Grand National, but had no joy in either. His next four starts saw him pulled up, with his mark subsequently falling from 158 to 145. Coincidentally, 145 is the exact mark he won the Welsh Grand National off previously. Although that was a couple of years ago, he is still only eight years old, so he’s far from being over the hill.
It looks likely Nassalam will get his ideal ground conditions here
The heavy ground conditions had a huge influence on Nassalam’s performance in the 2023 renewal of the Welsh Grand National, and I think he could get the same conditions again this year. With the recent weather, there will already be plenty of juice in the ground at Chepstow. Although there is a fair distance between Chepstow and Ffos Las, the report from Ffos Las today, ahead of their meeting on Thursday, read “Heavy Areas of surface water on the track”.
As of Monday evening, 12.2mm of rain has been forecast between now and 5am tomorrow (Tuesday 16 December), with further rainfall predicted between now and the race:
- Wednesday 17 December - 16mm
- Thursday 18 December - 12mm
- Friday 19 December - 0.3mm
- Saturday 20 December - 10mm
- Sunday 21 December - 0.9mm
- Monday 22 December - 0.0mm
- Tuesday 23 December - 1.5mm
- Wednesday 24 December - 0.2mm
As you can see, between now and Christmas, they are looking at another 53mm of rain. Based on that, the race is likely to be run in very testing conditions again, as it so often is. If so, Nassalam will absolutely relish the conditions.
Another aspect to consider is the form of the stable, and it is absolutely red hot! As you can see below, the yard had a quiet end to the summer and autumn, with their National Hunt record reading as follows:
- July 2025 - 0/5 (0%)
- August 2025 - 1/7 (14%)
- September 2025 - 2/8 (25%)
- October 2025 - 3/21 (14%)
- November 2025 - 9/54 (17%)
However, this particular yard often comes alive in December, a fact that I highlighted in my
December Trainers To Follow
article, which has come to fruition once again. Over the jumps in December 2025 to date, they have recorded 10 winners from 29 runners, which is a phenomenal strike rate of 34%. It is also worth noting they have had five seconds, three thirds and two fourth places, which means that 20 of their 29 runners (69%) during December have finished in the first four places.
If you had backed them all to £1 level stakes, you would have a profit of +£27.33. With the yard currently in such strong form, it convinces me that Nassalam can turn a corner and return to form in this year’s Welsh Grand National.
Can Nassalam regain his Welsh Grand National crown?
Last season, Nassalam had an extremely high rating, so he didn’t defend his Welsh Grand National title, and the race was won by Mel Rowley’s Val Dancer. However, I think Nassalam will follow in the footsteps of 2013 and 2015 winner, Mountainous, by regaining his crown two years later.
As always, you need to weigh up the positives, the negatives and the price. There is plenty in Nassalam’s favour. He is now back on his last winning mark, the weather forecast indicates he will get his ideal testing conditions, and his yard is currently in red hot form. Not forgetting that he is still only an eight-year-old, so he has plenty of time on his side.
On a less positive note, he has been pulled up the five of the last six times he has raced. However, the first of those was in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, which is easy to forgive. The next three were on Good going, which doesn’t suit him. The latest one was at Cheltenham last month, when 5lb claimer Freddie Mitchell naively followed an overly strong pace and Nassalam simply couldn’t sustain the effort. That said, he travelled and jumped well enough to show his ability remained intact.
At a price of 20/1, I feel Nassalam is fantastic value. If he was a different horse from a different yard, I’d be far more concerned about him being pulled up five times in his last six runs. But with this stable, I find it much easier to overlook, simply because they are currently in such strong form. For the reasons stated I’m prepared to play a full 1pt way. When winning the race in 2023, he went off as the 9/2 joint favourite, so if the rain comes as forecast, I can see him going off a fraction of his current price.
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