Key Points
- An antepost betting tip for the Albert Bartlett at the 2026 Cheltenham Festival
- This horse already has winning form here at Cheltenham
- There's plenty of value at his current antepost price and place terms
For today’s article, I’m adding a further antepost betting tip to our portfolio for the 2026 Cheltenham Festival. I was already a fan of this horse prior to him running last weekend, and he went on to win in fantastic style. I checked the antepost markets immediately, and let’s just say I’m very happy with the price being offered currently.
New to Betting.co.uk? If you’re new to this site, I’m RacingGav and I’m the resident horse racing expert here. I produce four to five articles per week which are completely free for you to access. These are predominantly betting tips, with a mix of daily and antepost. However, I also produce other types of content such as big race trends and educational guides.
If you enjoy antepost betting, which I assume is the case if you’re reading this article, be sure to check out the other tips I’ve already posted. Those include antepost picks for the King George VI Chase on Boxing Day, the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase at
the 2026 Cheltenham Festival
and the 2026 Aintree Grand National.
Betting advice
- Cheltenham 13 March 2026 - The Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle -
Conman John
@ 25/1 -
0.5pt each way
BetMGM all the way if you’re backing Conman John!
At the time of writing, eight bookmakers have Conman John at an antepost price of 25/1 with just the three places on offer. So, I’m basing my bookie pick on the best sign up offer, which leads me to BetMGM. The brand currently has a
‘Bet £10, Get £40 in free bets’
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Unlike most conmen, Conman John is the real deal!
I think 25/1 is a lovely price for Conman John. With 25/1 to win and each way terms of 1/5 odds, that means he is 5/1 to be finishing in the frame come March. So a place would see a return of 3pts from our 1pt total stake. I’ll be disappointed if he wasn’t at least in the frame, as I have very high hopes for him.
Let’s recap on the previous logic and why I tipped him on Saturday!
Conman John won for us at 11/2 in the 3m Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Showcase Meeting on Saturday. I tipped him because he had already impressed me and he also looked open to tons of improvement. He won a Point To Point by 20 lengths and the form worked out well, with the horse in second place winning a PTP of his own by 16 lengths. That one also went on to win on his Rules debut by the same 16 length margin.
I also felt Conman John’s Bumper form was underestimated. He was sent off favourite up at Newcastle, over 2m 1f, and finished second, beaten 8.5 lengths by Upon Tweet for Nicky Richards. I think they made a mistake that day by not pressing hard with him during the race. It ultimately developed into a sprint for the line, where Upon Tweet simply possessed more gears. I don’t think that Conman John’s Bumper run at Punchestown was a true reflection of his ability either. In that race, he took the bend extremely wide, forfeiting a lot of ground before rallying strongly. In complete contrast, the winner, Soldier In Milan, had a lovely time at the front end. As a result, I marked both Bumper runs up.
Conman John also had one run over Hurdles at Kelso over 2m 5f, where he just got the better of stablemate Timefortom. Again, I felt this wasn’t a true reflection of his ability. The 2m 5f trip would have been on the short side for him anyway, but the fact he fluffed two out left him with plenty to do. I also felt he’d improve in terms of fitness for that run, as he looked as though he could tighten up further. Combining all of that with the step up in trip, he looked to have a huge chance last Saturday, and he delivered!
A lot of people will use RPRs as a guide when considering the level of a performance. I will use it as a loose guide myself, but I’m also not afraid to question it if it looks off. To me, the RPR of 130 for Conman John's win on Saturday looks wrong! Interestingly, we have another 3m Hurdle on the same card to use for comparison purposes, which is a great help.
Ma Shantou won the 3m Handicap Hurdle (Pertemps Qualifier) in a time of 5m 52.05s and he was awarded a RPR of 138. When you compare that very literally to Conman John running the same course and distance in a time of 5m 57.76s i.e. 5-6 seconds slower, it would be reasonable to expect a similar conclusion. However, Conman John carried 10lb more (11st 5lb vs 10st 9lb for Ma Shantou) which is a huge factor that I think needs considering. Also, a competitive Handicap would typically be run at a stronger tempo, which would impact on the times. That is before even factoring in that Conman John did all of the donkey work on the front end of the field, whereas Harry Cobden kept Ma Shantou covered up towards the rear of the field, and only asked questions after the last.
You could argue that Ma Shantou won his race rather cosily. However, I feel that Conman John also had plenty left in the tank. To my eye, he looked to just be doing enough in front and when Derek Fox asked for more after the last, he powered away up the hill, despite wandering a little. Furthermore, three horses had ratings in that Novice Hurdle which were 132, 111 and 123, yet the RPRs suggest they only ran to 106, 86 and 94. They may not have performed at their best that day, but those differences of 26lb, 25lb and 29lb, feel somewhat excessive!
This was only his second start over Hurdles and his first time over a staying trip
Even if you took Conman John's RPR of 130 literally, a comparable figure would have put him in seventh place in the 2025 renewal of the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle. He would have finished right on the heels of Jig’s Gorge, who finished sixth with a RPR of 131. Interestingly, Conman John's stablemate, Derryhassen Paddy, finished third in that race, and he was awarded a RPR figure of 143. All of this would suggest that Conman John would need to find 13lb of improvement to match Derryhassen Paddy’s performance in that race. But I think the reality is actually much closer than that.
Whilst I feel that Conman John is being underestimated, and potentially has less improvement to find, there are plenty of reasons why he should improve significantly anyway. First, that was just his second start over Hurdles and his first start over a staying trip. That means he is incredibly unexposed, and the potential is rather frightening. In addition, he had to do the donkey work from the front on Saturday. I’d argue that in a stronger run race, with horses in front of him, he could be even better. Finally, the Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle is run on Cheltenham's New Course, rather than the Old Course used on Saturday, which puts even more emphasis on stamina, and I think that will suit Conman John even more!
Can Conman John match Derryhassen Paddy’s 2025 effort?
This may seem like a bold statement to some, but I genuinely believe that Conman John has the potential to be better than Derryhassen Paddy over Hurdles. Whether he’s a better horse overall is another question, as I think Derryhassen Paddy will thrive switching to fences this season. I just feel that Conman John is so swift at his hurdles, that he could exceed what Derryhassen Paddy achieved in this discipline. When you consider that Derryhassen Paddy finished third in the 2025 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle, a renewal that looked pretty strong to me, I think Conman John has a great chance in the race next year.
In terms of potential negatives, antepost betting always carries risk. If he doesn’t run for any reason, the money is lost. As with any horse, there is always a risk of injury, unfavourable ground conditions and so on. There is also a chance connections will opt for a different race, like the Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree. That said, I am pretty confident that Conman John will head to Cheltenham, and I’d say it’s no coincidence that he ran there on Saturday. However, Lucinda does have a good record over at Aintree and at this stage, we don’t know what the competition will look like come March.
All facts considered, the 25/1 on offer looks great value for Conman John in the 2026 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle. I feel that if he was trained by someone like Willie Mullins, there would be much more hype around his performance, and we would be looking at a much shorter price. That said, the same will be true come March. Even so, I feel there is the potential for Conman John to go off significantly shorter than the 25/1 currently on offer, especially if he progresses further in the interim as expected. However, Cheltenham is still a long way off, Conman John's target isn’t set in stone, and he does need to improve, so it’s just half stakes for now. We can always top up nearer the time, this just secures some of that 25/1 while it's still available!
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