Key Points
- This horse is best when fresh and his trainer is taking advantage of that fact
- My betting tip has plenty of course form including at the Cheltenham Festival
- Favourites have a terrible record in this race so we will take Majborough on here
Yesterday I tackled the feature race on the opening day of the 2026 Cheltenham Festival,
the Champion Hurdle. Today we move on to the feature race of Day 2 which is the Champion Chase. I’m once again taking on the J P McManus-owned favourite, and hopefully we will see him beaten!
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Betting advice
- Wednesday 11 March 2026 - Champion Chase -
L’Eau Du Sud
@ 4/1 (3 places) -
0.5pt each way
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Can it be third time lucky at the Cheltenham Festival for L’Eau Du Sud?
L’Eau Du Sud has been unfortunate not to be a Cheltenham Festival winner to date. In the County Hurdle he bumped into the very talented Absurde, being beaten a length at the line. Switched to fences, he then looked to be the Arkle winner last year but they did too much in front and Jango Baie outstayed them to win, beating L’Eau Du Sud by 1.5 lengths. I think it could be third time lucky for L’Eau Du Sud and in this article, I’ll breakg down the case for backing him!
L’Eau Du Sud is best when fresh and his trainer is taking advantage of that fact
The Dan Skelton-trained L’Eau Du Sud produced a career best when he won the Shloer Chase at Cheltenham back in November. Although that form isn’t especially reliable or strong, his performance was eye-catching. It showed that he can produce fantastic form when he is kept fresh, and Dan Skelton has used that to his advantage this time.
Last year L’Eau Du Sud was having his fifth run of the season when taking on the Arkle and it was also just over a month after a tough race at Warwick. However, this time around Dan Skelton has only given him two runs and he’s not had a run since early December, so he comes here very fresh. Hopefully this will see him at his best and if replicating his Shloer performance, he would have every right to be bang there at the finish.
L’Eau Du Sud has had five starts at Cheltenham, including at the last two Cheltenham Festivals, so he is tried, tested and proven around this track unlike some of his rivals. That reliability makes him an appealing each way bet. Even if he bumps into a superstar, he shouldn’t be too far away at the finish.
His form figures around the Cheltenham’s Old Course read P141. He wasn’t right when he pulled up in the Greatwood Handicap Hurdle, so I would draw a line straight through that performance. He was a close fourth in the 2025 Arkle Novices’ Chase, and his two other performances over C&D have resulted in multi-length victories.
Favourites have an awful record in this race so we will take Majborough on here
If the same Majborough that turned up at the Dublin Racing Festival and won the Grade 1 Dublin Chase (Grade 1) by 19 lengths, turns up here, he will be hard to beat. However, he isn’t beyond making the odd mistake, so he’s far from guaranteed to back up that performance. Particularly so if the going is on the quicker side.
This race also has a terrible record when it comes to short-priced favourites:
- 2016 - Un De Sceaux beaten at 4/6
- 2017 - Douvan beaten at 2/9
- 2019 - Altior wins at 4/11
- 2020 - Defi Du Seuil beaten at 2/5
- 2021 - Chacun Pour Soi beaten at 8/13
- 2022 - Shishkin beaten at 5/6
- 2024 - El Fabiolo beaten at 2/9
- 2025 - Jonbon beaten at 5/6
As you can see, in the last 10 renewals, there have been eight very short-priced favourites, and only one of them managed to win. This is largely due to the frantic pace this race usually runs at. One mistake can quickly ruin any chance of winning, so it’s a race where you need to steer clear of short-priced runners.
Can L’Eau Du Sud give Dan Skelton a Champion Chase win?
Sadly, this renewal of the Champion Chase lacks depth. Sir Gino is out injured, as is Marine Nationale. It also looks like Jonbon will line up in the Ryanair Chase instead, or perhaps skip Cheltenham altogether. In my opinion, Majborough is a worthy favourite, but also an opposable one.
The two that could beat him are L’Eau Du Sud and Il Etait Temps, but L’Eau Du Sud comes with a lot less question marks. It’s also debatable whether Cheltenham suits Il Etait Temps, and he comes here off the back of a fall last time out. We already know L’Eau Du Sud performs well at Cheltenham, and he has been kept fresh for this race, so hopefully patience will pay dividends for the Skeltons.
In terms of the negatives, Majborough will be a tough nut to crack if he’s at his best. However, when considering the stats for short-priced favourites in this race, he must be opposed. L’Eau Du Sud also needs to take his Cheltenham Festival record from bridesmaid to bride. He has been close, but hasn’t managed a win at the last two Cheltenham Festivals.
Away from the top three, the rest of the runners here aren’t particularly inspiring. If Majborough makes a mistake, or otherwise underperforms, then L’Eau Du Sud can capitalise, and at 4/1, I think he’s worth an each way bet . Some will say it’s too short, but if he finishes second or third, we get 90% of the stake back. If he can win we’ll get almost 3.5x ROI. Given Majborough’s record, and the fact that it’s a tricky race to assess this year, it’s just half stakes, and for what it’s worth, I’ll be shocked if L’Eau Du Sud isn’t in the first three.
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