Key Points
- Today’s horse racing betting tip really impressed me at the Dublin Racing Festival
- I think his hold up style will be perfect for this extremely competitive and fast paced race
- The favourite is a short enough price and you can pick holes in the other contenders here
The 2026 Cheltenham Festival is here. The greatest four days of National Hunt racing in the entire season. In this article, I’m tackling the opening race on Day 1, the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, which is one of my personal favourites! I can’t wait to hear the Cheltenham roar as the flag drops and the race gets under way, and I think my pick for today is the one that you need to cheer on.
Make sure you check out the
betting tips
I’ve already published for Day 1 of the Cheltenham Festival too. I’ve already covered the feature race for today, the
Champion Hurdle, and the
National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices’ Chase, which is the final race today. I have also added
a Lucky 15 for all four days
of the meeting, with one selection from each day. In there, you can also find my selection for the Ultima Handicap Chase!
And that’s not all. I’ll have a tip for the Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices' Chase a bit later, along with another Lucky 15 for Day 1. So, my plan for all of this week is to post two individual betting tips, plus a Lucky 15, for all four days. Otherwise, for access to all of my Cheltenham Festival tips, details of my Discord can be found at the bottom of this article, but that’s enough talking, let’s get stuck into my first betting tip!
Betting advice
- 13:20 Cheltenham -
Talk The Talk
@ 9/2 (3 places) -
1pt each way
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At the time of writing, Talk The Talk is widely available at 4/1. So I need something more than just the
best horse racing odds
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In a field full of horses with question marks, my pick looks rock solid!
Sometimes the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle can be dominated by one or two runners. Kopek Des Bordes, Constitution Hill, and Appreciate It all spring to mind in recent years. But this year we look to have a cracker, where there is real strength and depth. That said, plenty have question marks, and my selection looks to be the most solid contender! In this article, I’ll break down why I like him, and why I’m taking on the others!
Talk The Talk really impressed me at the Dublin Racing Festival
Talk The Talk was too keen in his Bumper, but still managed to finish second to a solid type from the Dan Skelton yard. After a 210 day break, he’s back this season over Hurdles and he has been progressing very well. Despite trouble in-running, he won his Maiden Hurdle at Limerick. Stepped up to Grade 3 company, he won easily at Fairyhouse in late November.
He then made the step up to Grade 1 company at Leopardstown over Christmas. He was delivered to win the race by Sam Ewing approaching the last, but sadly he over-jumped, stumbled on landing, and fell. Skylight Hustle went on to win the race, but in my eyes, Talk The Talk would have won if he stayed on his feet. He had his shot at redemption at the Dublin Racing Festival, with a chance to win another Grade 1. However, he had a lot against him.
I wasn’t convinced he would enjoy the Heavy ground, as all of his previous form was on better going. Then as the race got under way, it was clear that it would only be run at a very steady gallop, most likely due to the ground. With Talk The Talk being held up at the back of the field, it couldn’t have been more unsuitable for him. Even with just two to jump, most of the field were still in contention.
Talk The Talk started to pick off one or two as he swept around the field out wide, but the front three had already started kicking for home. In these scenarios, it is incredibly difficult to make up ground from behind, as the leaders are not stopping. Nonetheless, Talk The Talk not only managed to gain on them, he managed to pass them at the line! To win a Grade 1 that wasn’t run to suit his style was incredibly impressive!
I think Talk The Talk’s hold up style will be perfect for this race
The impression I was left with after Talk The Talk’s win at the Dublin Racing Festival was that he would be even better with a race run to suit. I think the ideal set up for him would be a very strong pace to sit behind and aim at, with a stiff finish to bring the leaders back to him. What I’m describing is exactly what he should get in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. As others start to feel the relentless gallop and begin to struggle up the notorious Cheltenham hill, I think Talk The Talk will be powering home!
Looping back to the pace in the race, Sober Glory may well go forward, and in his races to date, Old Park Star has done the same. The Willie Mullins pair, Leader D’Allier and Mighty Park are unlikely to be far away, and there could be a surprise package or two that want to go forward as well. Even if one or two decide to change tactics on the big stage, I would be surprised if there aren’t at least a couple wanting to lead.
When this happens, they will take each other on, over race, and set the finish up for those sitting patiently behind, like Talk The Talk. It will take an exceptional talent to lead this field from the start to the line, and if one of them does actually manage that, you would simply have to applaud it.
The favourite is short enough and you can pick holes in other contenders here
In terms of the opposition, I have great respect for Old Park Star. For me, the market has the right pair at the top of it, Old Park Star and Talk The Talk. However, I’d personally have them at least closer together and perhaps even the other way around. If the pair were 7/2 joint favourites, it would be fair in my eyes and I don’t think it would look out of place if Talk The Talk was a smidge shorter.
Win, lose or draw, I think Old Park Star will be a phenomenal horse for the future, but I see him more as a Chaser than a Hurdler. At this level, I think his jumping speed over Hurdles could see him beaten. If it doesn’t, he really is an exceptional talent for the future. For those who like a long term antepost bet, I’d be looking at Old Park Star for the 2027 Arkle Chase!
In terms of the rest, we have a real mixture. Mighty Park and El Cairos both have the potential to be extremely talented. However, it’s the experience angle that would concern me with both of them. With neither of them seeing any type of racing under Rules beyond somewhat uncompetitive Maiden Hurdles, this big competitive field could fry their brains, which could cause them to make mistakes. But if they handle the occasion and jump well, you can’t rule them out. El Cairos does have Bumper experience to lean on, including the Champion Bumper here, which could be crucial here.
That said, there are enough concern for me to oppose them. Leader d’Allier is similar in terms of Hurdles, albeit he has more experience from French Bumpers, with eight races under Rules in total. Although he has more racing experience, he still lacks experience over Hurdles, and he doesn’t have the same wow factor as the other two, despite being impressive last time out.
The British contingent have solid contenders in Mydaddypaddy and Sober Glory. The former was disappointing last time, but had excuses, and the latter has only one blemish on his record, w but he has put that behind him in his two starts since. Sober Glory has shown more ability to date, but Mydaddypaddy could be better suited to the race with his hold up style. I don’t think either will disgrace themselves but I think they’ll both need to find more to come out on top here.
Old Park Star being clear favourite, leaves the value with Talk The Talk!
As I have mentioned already, the two stand out horses here for me are Old Park Star and Talk The Talk. If I had to purchase one of the runners in the Supreme, it would come down to those two for sure. In terms of a long term prospect, I’d potentially lean towards Old Park Star, but in terms of today's Supreme winner, Talk The Talk is the one. The key here is their prices. At 5/2 or less, for Old Park Star, and around 9/2 for Talk The Talk, I surely don't need to tell you where the value lies.
Of the rest, I think El Cairos is a tempting price for a small win only saver with 9/1 available at the time of writing. At double-figure prices, Sober Glory could run a big race at 11/1 but I do fear he could do too much too soon and empty his gas tank. If there was more juice in his price, I’d be tempted to play Mydaddypaddy each way, as I think he’ll be held up and save his effort for the finish like Talk The Talk, which should suit this race. However, he needs a big step forward from what he has shown so far, and to execute those tactics better than Talk The Talk.
All elements considered, Talk The Talk is certainly the main play for me at the prices. At 9/2, some people will huff and puff at playing an each way bet, but I think it’s the smart move here. With his running style, I think he’ll be passing tired horses late on that have done too much too soon and I find it very hard to see him out of the first three at the finish.
As a result, I’m playing 1pt each way. Hopefully he’ll be good enough to win, but if doesn’t have quite enough, or he’s delivered too late through jockey error or trouble in-running, we’ll get 95% of our total stake back for finishing second or third.
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