Key Points
- His trainer won this race last year, so he knows what it takes to win
- This horse is a progressive type who has improved with every run
- In a race with questions for the top three to answer I’m going for value
We now move forward to Day 2 of the Cheltenham Festival, where my first betting tip for the day runs in the Grade 1 Turners Novices’ Hurdle. For this one I’m taking on the top of the market with a horse who can surely outrun his current 16/1 odds. You should also check out my betting tip for today’s feature race,
the Champion Chase, where I think I’ve found a good’un.
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Betting advice
- 13:20 Cheltenham - The Turners Novices’ Hurdle -
Bossman Jack
@ 16/1 (4 places, 1/4) odds -
0.5pt each way
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Bossman Jack is flying under the radar here!
The top three in the market are there for a reason, having already shown their ability in Grade 1 company. No Drama This End is a Grade 1 winner in the UK, and both Ballyfad and King Rasko Grey were just touched off in a Grade 1 at the Dublin Racing Festival. All three are well found in the market as a result. While the horse I am backing is yet to show what he is really capable of, I believe his chances here are being underestimated.
Bossman Jack’s trainer won this race last year, so he knows what it takes
Last year’s race was a hugely anticipated clash between The New Lion, The Yellow Clay and Final Demand. The New Lion won the race for the Skeltons, and owner JP McManus, which put him towards the top of the market for the Champion Hurdle, where incidentally he came third. But irrespective of that, Dan Skelton knows what it takes to win the Turners, and his runner for this year is Bossman Jack!
Off an opening handicap mark of 134, there would have been plenty of valuable pots that Dan Skelton could have targeted for Bossman Jack, and he’s well known for doing exactly that. However, he has decided to forego some easier races and have a crack at this Grade 1instead. That’s a real risk, because if runs really well without winning, he might still get a hefty rise in the handicap. In my mind, there must be a reason that Dan Skelton is doing this, and hopefully it’s because he believes Bossman Jack has a massive chance here.
Bossman Jack is a progressive type who has improved with every run
Bossman Jack is smartly-bred, and a half-brother to four winners including Gidleigh Park (156), St Barts (136 at peak) and John Barbour (128). He had just one run in a Bumper last season, which he won readily at Wincanton.
After that win, the Skeltons put him away for a break until November 2025. On reappearance, he finished third in a Maiden Hurdle, producing a RPR of 121. Two months later, he took a big step forward at Ffos Las when winning a Novices’ Hurdle, beating some useful horses, including Starzand who is rated 125, and producing a RPR of 126 as he did so. But he really caught my eye at Chepstow where he ran in another Novices’ Hurdle with a 7lb penalty, and won by 13 lengths without being asked any questions, producing a very strong RPR of 142.
As you can see, he is improving with every run judging from his RPR figures of 121, 126 and 142. Basically, he has been learning on the job and doing plenty wrong, which usually means there’s a lot of improvement still to come. All four of Bossman Jack’s runs to date have been over 2m, and he now steps up in trip. He could also be the type that improves for a more competitive race, and a stronger pace. At this stage, he really does fall into the category of a horse that ‘could be anything’, which is rather exciting!
In a race with questions for the top three to answer, I’m going for Bossman Jack
As I said earlier, the top three have an obvious chance. However, No Drama This End has been described as ‘the next Denman’, with connections already talking sending him over fences. But those of you with a good memory, or that know the sport very well, will remember that Denman was actually beaten in this race when sent off as favourite. Obviously he went on to be an exceptional racehorse, but I just wonder whether history could repeat itself here with No Drama This End.
The two main Irish contenders, King Rasko Grey and Ballyfad are interesting. They were both beaten by Talk The Talk, who I tipped for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle on Day 1, but failed to ignite. Nonetheless, I’m sure they’ll be strongly supported and rightly so. But what concerns me most is that they were both talked about as ‘Supreme horses’ yet now the time has come, both have opted for what appears to be the easier race. That rings alarms for me, and while either could prove me wrong and win, their prices alone are off-putting.
Can Bossman Jack cause an upset in the Turners today?
It’s very clear that Bossman Jack is progressing in great style, and his latest performance was especially impressive. I also find it interesting that the Skeltons are ambitiously throwing him into a Grade 1 at the Cheltenham Festival instead of going for a valuable Handicap. That shows an awful lot of belief in their horse, and they are not often wrong when they like one. Bossman Jack also appears to have more improvement to come, as he has been something of a work in progress thus far. On that point, in a better race, and with a step up in trip, we should get to see what he’s really made of.
In terms of negatives, Bossman Jack lacks experience. He has had just one run in a Bumper, and three runs over Hurdles so far, and has looked rather immature in his races. He did win his last race at a canter, but how much did he really learn there? There is a big difference between a regular Novice Hurdles race and a Grade 1, so it will come down to whether he can handle the step up in class in terms of both his experience and ability.
But with everything taken into account, I think it’s worth backing Bossman Jack here, and at a price of 16/1, I’m prepared to take on the top three. However, given the competitiveness of the race, and the step forward required from him, I’m limiting this bet to half stakes.
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