Key Points
- Today’s betting tip is well handicapped at 3lb below his last winning mark
- His best form has been over this distance with the same going
- With two unfortunate York runs previously he is back for another try
We head into the third and final day of the Dante Festival at York where there has already been some fantastic Flat action. It’s also Friday, which is reason enough to be happy, but the horse I’ve chosen, who is available at a cracking price of 14/1, can potentially make it an even better day!
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Betting advice
- 13:45 York -
Leadman
@ 14/1 -
0.5pt Win
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Leadman should enhance his strike rate here with a win!
Leadman must be an incredibly frustrating horse for David O’Meara and his owners. He has plenty of ability but he has only won two of his twenty starts and only one in Handicap company. However, he has finished second on six occasions, so he’s overdue a spot being bride rather than bridesmaid. In this article, I explain why I think he can land his third victory here!
Leadman is well handicapped at 3lb below his last winning mark
At his peak back in September 2025, Leadman was rated 91, so he is a horse with serious ability. He has placed off marks as high as 88 in Handicaps and his latest win came off a mark of 83. Meaning he looks extremely well handicapped off a significantly reduced mark of 80.
He ended last season in very solid form, with his last two completed starts over 7f producing RPRs of 88 and 87. He hasn’t returned in the same form this season, but perhaps this race has been a target for him and/or he has needed a couple of runs to hit peak form.
If you judge Leadman on his best form to date, based on RPR figures, his six best runs were all on Good to Firm going, so he clearly enjoys ground that’s on the faster side.
It’s officially Good going at York as it stands, but the times suggest it is on the quick side. Likewise, there’s a pretty dry forecast, and with very little rain to come, I can see it remaining Good at worst, and potentially drying to Good to Firm. So if that angle holds up, he should be in with a good chance today.
With two unfortunate York runs previously, Leadman is back for another try
To date, Leadman has had two runs at York racecourse and neither worked out well for him. The first of the two runs was in August last year, where he was given far too much to do from the back of the field. He stayed on, but he was denied a clear run 2f out and had no chance of reeling in the leaders.
He ran here again in October, but unfortunately he was not on his best behaviour. Warren Fentiman rode him that day and was claiming 5lb at the time. Leadman unseated Warren on the way to the start, he was reluctant to load, and then he unseated Warren again at the start of the race!
Surely he’s due some luck and it could be a case of third time lucky here, I hope so! Judged on Day 1’s action, I’d be fearful of his draw in stall 18, with low numbers seemingly the place to be. However, on Day 2, the track bias seemed to be less convincing, so I’m willing to take a chance on him regardless.
Can Leadman get his head back in front?
For me, there are enough positives to make Leadman a viable bet, especially at odds of 14/1. He’s very well handicapped at 3lb below his last winning mark, and 11lb below his peak handicap mark. His best form has been over 7f on Good to Firm going, so he should love this race. On the face of it, finishing eighth, then unseating his rider on his two previous runs here at York doesn’t look good. However, he had excuses and I’m sure he is capable of much better.
In terms of negatives, the glaringly obvious one is his record of 2/20 and recent poor form. But in his defence, he’s gone close a number of times with six second places on his record and perhaps he’s needed a couple of runs to peak this season. The other main negative is his draw, but hopefully it is fair racing like it seemed to be yesterday.
All elements factored in, I feel he certainly offers value at 14/1, but as he has become hard to trust, it’s just half stakes and win only for this on this one. If he turns up at his best, he can win this. If he turns up in similar form to the first two runs this season, he has no chance!
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