Key Points
- Today’s betting tip can go one better than his penultimate start
- A low draw is often crucial here and he has landed one
- This Apprentice Handicap could create the perfect set up
We hit a flat spot with Peaky Boy yesterday when he finished in third. But on the plus side, we backed him at 5/1, so at least our full stake was returned. Incidentally, only one of the last seven
free horse racing tips
I’ve put up has returned a loss, so we are doing incredibly well. I look to continue our run of success with today’s 10/1 selection who runs at York!
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Betting advice
- 13:50 York -
Leadman
@ 10/1 (5 places) -
1pt each way
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Leadman can be the leading man in this contest!
I believe that Leadman can come to the fore in this competitive, big field Handicap race at York. Keep reading to find out why!
Leadman can go one better than his Dante meeting run
I tipped Leadman during last month’s Dante meeting, and his race was an incredibly frustrating watch. He was dropped into rear from an unfavourable wide draw and subsequently he was ridden for luck. The luck was not forthcoming as he was repeatedly denied a clear run. At the same time, the eventual winner - Zarathos, stole the first run which made him impossible to catch. Leadman gave it a good go, passing all bar him but sadly it wasn’t enough to win.
Zarathos went into the Dante meeting 4lb higher for a recent win at Windsor, which had been a long time coming as he was still a maiden after his first 17 starts. However, it clearly did his confidence the world of good, as he went on to win back to back races. With his new found confidence, he very nearly denied a further 7lb higher mark at Epsom but just bumped into a strong Wathnan winner, with the pair pulling clear. Whilst he couldn’t quite pull off the hat-trick, it did frank the Leadman form though, which was good to see.
A low draw is often crucial here and Leadman has landed one
Leadman has been unfortunate here the last twice as he has landed horrible draws of 18 and 20 in two 22 runner handicaps here. There has always been a huge draw bias at York which favours runners on the far side rail over the stand side, so a low draw is hugely beneficial.
It’s a case of third time never like the rest for Leadman as he comes back for his third consecutive 7f race at York, but this time, he has landed a far kinder draw in stall four. He is a hold up horse, so he will likely be dropped in and ridden accordingly, but having a starting point closer the favoured rail will be a big help. With a stronger starting position, he may even sit a little further forward today, I certainly wouldn’t be against him sitting in midfield rather than towards the rear.
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An apprentice handicap could create the perfect set up for Leadman’s style
It will be interesting to see how this race plays out. On paper, I’m struggling to see much in the way of pace angles outside of Orne. Therefore, we could be on for a sedate gallop, which wouldn’t suit Leadman’s style unless he is positioned further forward on this occasion.
However, it is worth noting that this race is an Apprentice Handicap. If there is one scenario we see time and time again, it’s where less experienced jockeys either go too fast from the outset or kick for home too soon. I'll be happy with either happen as it should leave the leaders struggling towards the line and setting Leadman up for a big finish.
We have Conor Whiteley in the saddle today. Considering he is an apprentice, he has an impressive strike rate of 18% this year, and he is also able to claim 5lb, which is always handy and brings Leadman's weight down to 9st 7lb. Hopefully the gaps openly kindly for Conor and he can steer Leadman through to success!
Can Leadman land a win today?
It is quite remarkable that Leadman hasn’t won more races. For a horse with his ability, you would expect better figures than 2 wins from 22 races. However, he has also recorded seven second place finishes. Just as one example, given a clear run on his penultimate start, Leadman would most likely have won. But irrespective of that, we are focusing on his chances today, so let’s recap.
He has a much better (low) draw for starters. The way Apprentice races often run should suit Leadman’s style perfectly, and the 5lb off his weight (courtesy of Conor Whiteley) will help too. He also appears handicapped to win, running off his last winning mark. On the other side of the coin, Leadman has a less-experienced jockey in the saddle today. I am also struggling to see many pace angles and on a hold up type, the last thing you want is a sedate gallop. However, if they don’t go fast enough, I hope Conor can get a strong early position from his good draw and is able to challenge earlier.
Overall, I think Leadman has a huge chance and this could be a perfect opportunity for him. He is overpriced and underestimated at 10/1, largely due to his last run, but at that value price, I’m going with a full 1pt each way. So now it’s down to Leadman to deliver.
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