Key Points
- My betting tip has been poor over fences but reverts to Hurdles today
- This horse showed real potential for staying trips last time out
- Champion Jockey Sean Bowen takes the ride today
Today we have three Jumps meetings and two AW meetings to get stuck into. The Jumps action comes from Kelso, Chepstow and Fakenham. We then have AW action from Dundalk and Wolverhampton. However, I’m drawn to one at Chepstow at a double-figure price, and I think he can outrun his odds!
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Betting advice
- 16:55 Chepstow -
The Grey Man
@ 10/1 (3 places) -
1pt each way
There is no grey area with the bookmakers, back him with William Hill!
At the time of writing on Thursday evening, the
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This particular ‘grey man’ stands out from the crowd!
Ironically “The Grey Man” is usually an individual who blends seamlessly into his surroundings and avoids being noticed, but this one was a huge eye-catcher last time out. He reverts to Hurdles today, and at 10/1, I think he’s underestimated and overpriced.
The Grey Man has been poor over fences but reverts to Hurdles today
After eight runs over Hurdles, The Grey Man transitioned to fences last month. He made his Chase debut over 2m 4f at Ludlow, but sadly he slipped at the fifth, then sprawled on landing four out, losing any chance he had.
I think that latter incident may have knocked his confidence, because last time out his jumping went to pieces. He made a bad mistake at the fourth, which he followed up at the fifth and seventh. But despite those mistakes he began to rally, and make headway. Sadly he was 12 lengths down when he was hampered by a loose horse, and subsequently unseated James Bowen.
After a second negative experience over fences, his confidence over bigger obstacles could be completely shot now. On that basis, it looks like a wise move to switch back to Hurdles where he has already won.
The Grey Man showed real potential for staying trips last time out
Although his jumping was poor, there was a huge positive to take from the way The Grey Man travelled in his last race, which highlighted his potential for staying trips. Also, he is clearly happier over Hurdles, so the fact that he remains on a staying trip where he is completely unexposed, but reverts to the smaller obstacles today is very interesting indeed.
The Grey Man’s latest run was in 0-110 Handicap off a mark of 101, but with a 1lb reduction from the handicapper, he now qualifies for 0-100 Handicaps, which is an easier task. The negative is that he will carry the top weight of 12st. However, he has performed well carrying 11st 12lb previously, which suggests that he’ll handle it.
Champion Jockey Sean Bowen takes the ride today
Last time out James Bowen took the ride, but this time Harriet Dicken has brought in his brother, Champion Jockey Sean Bowen. That’s a very eye-catching booking and equally interesting that Sean has taken the ride, as I’m sure he won’t have been short of offers for this race.
With the ground officially Soft, Heavy in places at the time of writing , with more rain forecast, it could be very testing. However, this is a positive for The Grey Man, as his best form has been on Soft ground, and his sole win to date was on Heavy ground. He will enjoy the ground regardless of how much rain falls, although it could stretch him given he is carrying top weight.
Can The Grey Man return to winning ways?
There are plenty of positives for The Grey Man. He was let down by his jumping in the last two runs, but he now reverts to Hurdles, which will likely be a big relief for him. I think he’s shown tremendous potential for staying trips, and I’m very excited to see what he can do over this longer trip, but with smaller obstacles. The positives don’t stop there, as the drop in class, the booking of the Champion Jockey, and the testing ground conditions are all positives too!
As already mentioned, if the ground gets really testing, he could get tired with 12st on his back. We are also gambling on him enjoying the return to Hurdles and hope that his confidence hasn’t been shattered after his bad experience last time out. Finally, we also have the Skelton horse, Delta Blues Belle, at the top of the market. This mare won on the bridle in a cheeky fashion last time, and while she has been raised 10lb for that, the handicapper is how much she had in hand as she never came off the bridle.
Considering both sides, I think The Grey Man has a fantastic chance in this race. I also believe 10/1 is a fantastic price that underestimates him. Despite some potential negatives, I’m happy to play a full 1pt each way on The Grey Man here. Let’s hope the return to Hurdles and the bonus of Sean Bowen in the saddle can see him return to winning ways!
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