
We head to Yarmouth for their 1m Classified Stakes in order to find our bet for this Friday! This mare knows how to win, especially at this track, and I think she can land this Classified Stakes. At an each way price, she’s well worth a play.
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As I write this article on Thursday evening, the best horse racing odds for Heer’s Sadie are 13/2. One of the bookmakers offering these odds is William Hill. In addition to the great price, they have a superb new customer offer. If you bet £10, you’ll get £30 in free bets! That makes opening a new account with them well worth your while.
As I’ll explain further in the next section, Heer’s Sadie is a three time winner here at Yarmouth. I like her chances of making it four in this race. In this article, I’ll be breaking down the logic for you.
Heer’s Sadie has recorded six wins in her career with a further 14 top three finishes. Three of these victories have come at this track, so she knows how to win here. Distance wise, the wins have come over trips of 6f, 7f and today’s trip - 1m.
In addition to the three wins here, she has also produced three second placed finishes and a further third too. Four of her six victories have also come on Good to Firm ground, with the further two on Good ground. As such, today’s conditions of Good to Firm look ideal for her!
Last time out Heer’s Sadie ran over this course and distance but in handicap company rather than a Classified Stakes. She pulled three lengths clear of the field with one other horse - Luminous Warrior, who was well backed into 4/6F and proved too strong at the finish for her.
However, it is well worth noting that just over a week later, Luminous Warrior was turned out again at the same track and went in again under a 5lb penalty. With the form franked and the fact that the pair pulled clear of the field, I think the form can be marked up and Heer’s Sadie can go one better today.
As a general rule, Heer’s Sadie likes to be dropped in and delivered late in her races. Therefore, the small field of just five runners last time out wouldn’t have been ideal for her. In complete contrast, I feel this field of 10 runners will be much more suitable.
Furthermore, it’s not just the number of runners that matters, it’s how the race will play out. I can foresee this race panning out perfectly for Heer’s Sadie. I think Poetic Grace is likely to go forward. Keeper Of Secrets and Dee’s Honey are likely to press Poetic Grace and keep the pace honest. In addition to that, Oh So Audacious and El Carrusel are usually prominent racers too, adding further pace to the race.
Considering all of the pace angles, I think there will be a strong gallop for Heer’s Sadie to settle behind and when they all start to look for the line, I’m hoping she’ll be finishing with a rattle past them all to win.
I think Heer’s Sadie has a lot in her favour today. She is a three time course winner, including a course and distance victory. She produced a strong course and distance performance last time out and that form has been franked since by the winner. And this comes before the fact that this race could play out perfectly in front of her.
In terms of drawbacks, she is a low grade animal, so you always have to tread carefully in this circumstance. She has an overall record of 6/58, which is far from appealing but it is enhanced to 6/44 when looking at her Turf runs only (excluding All Weather). The other negative is that in this Classified Stakes, they also race off level stakes (with some race conditions)as if they are rated 50. Therefore, Heer’s Sadie is 4lb worse off than she would be in handicap company.
Taking all these factors into account, I feel that odds of 13/2 underestimate her chance and make her a lovely each way bet. However, given the negatives, I’m only prepared to play half stakes here.
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