Key Points
- Today’s betting tip has tons of course form at Cheltenham
- This horse will thrive in the testing conditions if the expected heavy rainfall arrives
- He is handicapped to strike and Charlie Maggs claims a vital 5lb
Today marks the opening day of “The November Meeting”, so welcome to the first instalment of Cheltenham’s epic three-day event. There was no chance I’d be tipping anywhere else, and I think I have a fantastic bet for you, plus a fantastic bookie deal to go with it!
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Betting advice
- 13:45 Cheltenham -
Fugitif
@ 11/4 -
1pt Win
bet365 offers an industry-wide best price!
Today’s bookmaker recommendation is bet365, which is largely based around current market prices. At the time of writing, almost every UK bookie seems to have agreed on a price of 5/2 for Fugitif to win this race. However, bet365 stood out from the crowd with a price of 11/4. For me, that must be taken advantage of! But there’s more. Bet365 also has a fantastic sign up offer too. If you deposit and bet £10, you’ll get £30 of free bets. A worthy offer for anyone who doesn't already have an account here.
Fugitif can bounce back to winning ways in Veteran company!
Throughout 2023, 2024 and 2025, Fugitif only ran in Graded races. His tally adds up to eight Grade 3s, one Grade 2, and three Grade 1s. That alone says plenty about his ability level. Although he has failed to get his head in front since December 2023, I think that can change now that he tackles Veterans’ company for the first time. Let’s take a look at the reasons I think he’ll win this race.
Cheltenham is a marmite course, where horses either love it or hate it. Fugitif certainly falls into the former category and he has tons of experience here. In his career to date, he has had eleven runs at Cheltenham, and in six (55%)of those he finished in the first three. That is some record considering the level of the races he has competed in here!
His race today is being run over the Old Course. Three of his previous races here have been over this course. He was second in a 2m Handicap Chase behind the super talented Amarillo Sky. He also placed fourth in the extremely competitive Paddy Power Gold Cup in 2023, and achieved a fifth place in the 2024 renewal of the same race. Incidentally, I have
a pick for this year's Paddy Power Gold Cup. It's already live, so you might want to check that out!
On Cheltenham’s New Course, Fugitif has shown some outstanding form. This includes finishing third in the 2024 Clarence House Chase (Grade 1) over an inadequate trip. He has also finished a gallant second (15 lengths clear of third) in a valuable Handicap here on Cheltenham Trials Day. One of his very best efforts was when he won the December Gold Cup in 2023. But I think his best performance of all was when he came second in the Plate Handicap Chase at the 2023 Cheltenham Festival. In that last one, he was only beaten by an Irish raider, namely Seddon, that he was giving 11lb to.
Fugitif will thrive in the testing conditions if the expected heavy rainfall arrives
Whilst the ground is currently Good to Soft, Good in places, there is an extraordinary amount of rain expected to fall on Thursday night, and throughout Friday, with weather warnings in place. It is so severe that the meeting itself could be in jeopardy! However, while some of the horses in this race won’t appreciate a deluge of rain, Fugitif will absolutely love it!
The 2023 Plate Handicap Chase (mentioned in the previous section) was run on Soft ground. Fugitif also won on Heavy ground early in his career at Uttoxeter. However, one race that springs to mind though was his win over the festive period at Chepstow’s Welsh Grand National meeting in 2022. I was actually there that day and the weather could only be described as biblical. He absolutely relished it, sauntering to victory readily.
While I wouldn’t want to see it rain so heavily that today’s racing is abandoned, I’d be happy to see it come dangerously close, as the wetter the better for our French lad Fugitif. Conversely, some others like Lord Baddesley would not enjoy those conditions, and I don’t think Gunsight Ridge needs too much of a test over this trip either.
Fugitif is handicapped to strike and Charlie Maggs claims a vital 5lb
At his peak, Fugitif won the December Gold Cup off a mark of 151, producing a RPR of 157. In terms of RPR, that performance was surpassed by his second place in the Plate Handicap Chase, despite him not even winning that race and running off a 2lb lower mark of 149. However, the two runs among others just show how talented Fugitif really is.
Although as a 10-year-old he is now into the Veteran stage of his Jumps career, Fugitif seems to have retained the majority of his ability, and his current reduced handicap mark of 145 is also a huge helping hand. When you then factor in that Charlie Maggs has been booked to ride, and he claims 5lb, Fugitif effectively runs off a mark of 140 here, which makes him look very well treated here. The 5lb claim from Charlie is also a huge help in terms of the actual weight Fugitif will carry. In the handicapper’s opinion, he is the joint-best horse in the race, and therefore set to shoulder 12st. However, with the 5lb claim Charlie Maggs brings to the table, that becomes a much nicer 11st 9lb.
Booking a Claimer to ride always carries risks, but I think Charlie is fantastic value for his claim. I’m sure Fugitif’s trainer and owner agree, considering that Charlie steered Some Scope to victory in the Rowland Meyrick Handicap Chase on Boxing Day last year. Not forgetting to mention that he also landed the Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase for Richard Hobson on Docpickedme in January this year.
A peek at the other runners in this race
As it stands, there are nine runners due to go to post in this Veterans’ Handicap Chase. For me, you can draw a line through a few of these. I don’t think Gunsight Ridge will stay this trip if the forecast rain falls. In contrast, I think the trip is far too short for Mister Coffey, and he is a serial non-winner anyway. The same goes for Escaria Ten. I also don’t believe that Lord Baddesley will want to run through a bog, and Dreal Deal looks on a tough mark with the handicapper giving him 134. Numitor blows hot and cold, and looks on a high enough mark already.
So, I have narrowed this nine-runner field down to these three: Fugitif, Can You Call and Eldorado Allen. On his best form, Can You Call is well handicapped and he also gets a ton of weight from the whole field, which could be important if it becomes a real slog. He has also had a preparation run at Fontwell, so he should be fit and ready. However, his record of one win from thirteen over fences is concerning.
The other is Eldorado Allen. There’s no denying he does go very well fresh, as he showed when placing off an 8lb higher mark in his first two starts last season. Despite being 11 now, we know he handles very testing ground, and he stays three miles, so stamina won’t be an issue here, but I still think he’ll be vulnerable to the slightly younger legs of Fugitif.
Can Fugitif come up the famous Cheltenham hill in front?
Assuming that Fugitif is fit and ready, if the rain comes, I think he’ll take a lot of beating here. My one niggling concern is that his connections would logically have been aiming at the similar race due to run at the December meeting here. However, with this race replacing the now-cancelled Cross Country race, I can see why they’re having a crack at it.
I just fear today’s race may have come ahead of Fugitif’s schedule, and he could potentially fall a little short on the fitness front. So, while I think he’s a valid bet, I’m not going to get carried away with a big stake. All elements considered, I’ve landed on a 1pt bet. If he is a little short fitness wise and it catches him out, I think we’ll make our money back at the December meeting with him anyway!
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