Key Points
- Today’s betting tip has been running well without winning all season
- His trainer has won five of the last eight renewals of this race
- They have kept him fresh for this and that patience can be rewarded
Quinault ran a cracker for us yesterday, just denied in third but with the bet played each way it was place money at least! We now switch from the Flat at Newmarket to the National Hunt racing at Ayr, on Day 1 of the Scottish Grand National meeting. I think this horse will take some beating in the Hillhouse Quarry Handicap Chase, and I’m advising a strong 2pt Win bet on him.
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Betting advice
- 15:30 Ayr -
Hoe Joly Smoke
@ 5/2 -
2pt Win
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Yet another valuable handicap can go to Team Skelton!
Dan Skelton has been on fire this season, scooping up many of the valuable handicaps throughout the season and that has seen him land the UK Trainers Championship for the first time, with an extraordinary amount of prize money already secured. Dan Skelton is very much in bonus territory now, but I think Hoe Joly Smoke can further Dan's advantage here.
Hoe Joly Smoke has been running well without winning all season
Hoe Joly Smoke started the 2025/26 National Hunt season with a huge run at Cheltenham when he was third behind Three Card Brag and Backmersackme. Three Card Brag franked the form by chasing home Panic Attack in the Coral Gold Cup (formerly the Hennessy) which I’ll come back to later. Backmersackme also franked the form by winning a valuable Handicap at the Dublin Racing Festival.
Hoe Joly Smoke backed up his Cheltenham run with a third in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, where he could have finished closer if his jumping had been neater at the business end of the race. Panic Attack won that, before landing the Coral Gold Cup, and then a Listed Mares’ Chase. She also ran a cracker in the Mares’ Chase at the Cheltenham Festival to finish third. The horse who placed second, Vincenzo, chased home Glengouly in the December Gold Cup, before winning a valuable Handicap at Ascot.
Whilst Hoe Joly Smoke's last rwo runs haven’t been at the same level, they were still respectable, and I think he can bounce back, especially as he has had wind surgery since his last run.
Hoe Joly Smoke’s trainer has won five of the last eight renewals of this race
Dan Skelton is a fantastic target trainer, arguably one of the best around. The Hillhouse Quarry Handicap Chase is a race that Dan likes to target, as he has won several renewals in the past:
- 2017 - Two Taffs
- 2018 - Value At Risk
- 2019 - Born Survivor
- 2022 - Beakstown
- 2025 - Riskintheground
You have to respect Dan Skelton’s runners in any valuable Handicap this season, but for one where he has won five of the last eight renewals, you really need to take notice. If you look at the three renewals he didn’t win, he didn’t have a runner in one, he had second place (by a neck) in another, and two other renewals saw his runners fall and pull up. I think he can make it six wins in nine renewals here.
They have kept Hoe Joly Smoke fresh for this and that patience can be rewarded
There would have been suitable races for Hoe Joly Smoke at the big spring festivals like the Cheltenham Festival, or the Aintree Grand National meeting. However, Dan Skelton has kept him back to ensure he is fresh, and that patience could pay dividends here. It’s not often that the Skelton’s keep a horse back for a target race and then fail to achieve it.
I also think this race could set up perfectly for Hoe Joly Smoke, as he is a hold up horse and strong stayer over this intermediate trip. With Twinjets, Jipcot, and Myretown likely to go forward, and Il Ridoto unlikely to be far away, this race is likely to be run at a ferocious gallop. Between that and the juice in the ground, it will be a real test. But as they all start to feel the pace up front, I think Hoe Joly Smoke will be stalking them, and ready to pounce with a big finish.
Can Hoe Joly Smoke land his first win of the season?
Hoe Joly Smoke certainly ticks a lot of boxes for me. His form from earlier in the season has worked out phenomenally well. He ran fantastic races in defeat, and now it’s his turn to come home in front. Dan Skelton has won five of the last eight renewals of this race and went very close in another. Arguably it’s five from seven as he didn’t have a runner in one renewal. There would have been plenty of races for Dan Skelton to fire Hoe Joly Smoke at, but instead he’s been patient and kept him fresh for this.
In terms of negatives, I’m struggling to find much. The only real concern would be that the wind operation hasn’t done the job, or the fact that sometimes horses don’t fire until their second race after the operation. However, Dan had time to get a prep run into him if he felt he needed it, but he has decided to come straight here, so we’ll just have to trust his judgement on that!
As for the others in the race, I respect Donnacha, who has also been kept fresh for this, but where Hoe Joly Smoke hasn't won this season, and is just 1lb higher than his opening mark, Donnacha has won and been raised, so he needs to overcome that. Similar comments apply to Califet En Vol, Twinjets, and Jipcot. Myretown and Il Ridoto are out of form and hard to trust, but dangerous if they bounce back to their best. Of the two outsiders, I’d give Dubai Days a squeak at a big price at 25/1, as he has already recorded five wins at Ayr. But overall, I think Hoe Joly Smoke can win this, and I’m going for a 2pt Win bet.
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