Key Points
- Today’s betting tip is well handicapped back on his last winning mark
- His form last time out has been franked and that run could arguably be marked up too
- The market favourite is talented but far from straightforward, so he’s worth taking on
It was fantastic to land a nice winner yesterday with Crazierthandaisy at 5/1. She was hammered into as short as 13/8, and eventually went off with a SP of 15/8. The money came and she delivered in great style, so as well as plenty of value, we crucially got the right result too. That turned our 0.75pt stake into a lovely 4.5pt return, which adds to our profit for November.
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Betting advice
- 14:35 Ascot -
Moveit Like Minnie
@ 9/2 (3 places) -
0.75pt each way
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Moveit Like Minnie is exposed, but proven!
At the age of eight, Moveit Like Minnie is far more exposed than most of the five and six year olds that he faces today. Although many would see that as a negative, I’m not so sure that’s the case. While some in this race are open to more improvement, there is no guarantee it’ll come. However, we already know that Moveit Like Minnie can be very competitive off a mark of 118, and he should run his race here. And let’s face it, there’s a lot to be said for a reliable horse in this game! But that isn’t the only reason I’m tipping him today, so keep reading to find out why he has caught my attention.
Moveit Like Minnie is well handicapped back on his last winning mark
Moveit Like Minnie comes here with an official rating of 118 over Hurdles. His last two wins came off this mark, plus he has finished second and third off that same mark this season, so we already know that he can be very competitive at this level.
As an eight-year-old, he is unlikely to be finding dramatic improvement, but I think he’s sufficiently well handicapped to win here. There is always the risk of him being vulnerable to younger improvers, but a tough, battle-hardened horse can get you a long way in the right race. If he was the short-priced favourite, I might think again, but at a price of 9/2, it opens an each way angle for us.
The latest run for Moveit Like Minnie was over C&D at the beginning of this month. He finished third that day, beaten by just 3.25 lengths. It was Joe Tizzard’s Alexei who won that race, and the form is well worth noting, as Alexei subsequently franked it by winning the Greatwood Hurdle at Cheltenham last weekend.
Alexei beat Moveit Like Minnie off a mark of 127, and his Greatwood Hurdle victory came off a 7lb higher mark of 134. Not only that, he won in great style, producing a remarkable RPR of 149, so he’ll have a further hefty rise to come. In addition, I think Moveit Like Minnie’s run could be marked up. He raced a little too keenly in the early stages, but made most of the running out at the front. Despite all of that effort, he still kept on gamely after the last, only missing out on second place by a neck.
Fortune De Mer is talented but far from straightforward, so he’s worth taking on
I have great respect for Fortune De Mer, and plenty for his trainer, Dan Skelton. But I’m pretty sure that Dan would tell you that he is far from straightforward. He is a very keen sort, who often pulls hard in his races, and frequently has his own ideas about how things should be done! To be fair, it’s often the way in this game that horses with plenty of talent often come with plenty of quirks too!
Last time out at Cheltenham worked out well for Fortune De Mer. With 12 runners, and a strong pace to sit behind, he was able to get plenty of cover. Even then he wasn’t the easiest ride for Harry Skelton, but the pair came out on top by a short head at the line. Up 8lb for that win, he needs to step forward again and with his quirks taken into account, I think he is worth taking on at a price that’s currently hovering between 5/4 and 11/8. Despite a smaller field here, he should get a nice pace to aim at, but at the same time, that should suit Moveit Like Minnie too.
Can Moveit Like Minnie go two better back over C&D?
As covered above, I think there are a lot of positives for Moveit Like Minnie today. He is well handicapped off a mark of 118, considering his previous form at this mark. Form which has also been franked in fantastic style, so there was no shame in his most recent defeat over this C&D. Even more so, when you consider that the race didn’t entirely go smoothly for him.
Conversely, he is exposed, which means he is vulnerable to improvers. Also, he effectively races off a 5lb higher mark today, as Sam Twiston-Davies replaces James Turner, who was claiming 5lb last time out. However, Sam is a fantastic jockey, and arguably his extra ability and experience is worth the extra 5lb of weight Moveit Like Minnie will carry. This horse certainly won’t be beaten because of a lack of effort on the part of his jockey anyway.
Finally, at a price of 9/2, I think Moveit Like Minnie looks a fantastic each way bet. I genuinely think he can win this if he settles, and allows someone else to do the donkey work at the front end. But if he doesn’t, I’m still very confident he can finish with a place. Should the latter happen, we’ll get a decent percentage of our stake back with the place returns. As he is exposed, I’ve trimmed the stake down to 0.75pt each way and he’s well worth that.
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