Key Points
- Today’s betting tip showed great stamina on the flat and steps up in trip over hurdles
- This horse has dropped 14lb below his original mark over Hurdles
- With five wins on testing ground already, the expected rain is favourable
We had a great run for our money yesterday. Kavahari traded as low as 1.34 when he looked likely to pass the eventual winner on the home straight, but sadly he couldn’t get by. He probably didn't help himself by a little too keen early in the race but as our 5/1 bet was each way, we got a return for the place element. Today I have another each way bet for you, but this one has very tasty odds of 20/1!
If you’re not already familiar with my content, where have you been? Joking aside, I’m RacingGav and I’m the resident horse racing expert here at Betting.co.uk. My main task here is to provide you with
free horse racing tips, and I’m sure that’s why you’re reading this article right now.
It’s not just tips I publish though, I also produce big race trends, educational guides and other horse racing content. If you want to take a look at some of the guides that I have already posted, I’d recommend taking a look at
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first, before moving on to the more complex topic of
Understanding the UK Handicap System. But those are not what we're here for right now, so I’ll move swiftly on to today’s betting tip…
Betting advice
- 16:00 Doncaster -
Justus
@ 20/1 (3 places) -
0.5pt each way
Get the best odds for Justus at bet365
At the time of typing this article, bet365 are offering by far has the best horse racing odds for Justus! Generally he is priced up at 12/1 but the prices excluding bet365 vary from 10/1 to 14/1. However, bet365 are really sticking their neck out on this one with a price of 20/1 on offer and that’s well worth taking! No account? No problem, if you sign up and
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Justus stood out on the Doncaster card!
Sometimes I can trawl through the racecards for hours and come up with nothing worth a bet. But when I came across Justus in today’s race, he stood out like a sore thumb, especially at a price of 20/1. In this article, I’ll explain why I’m so keen on this one!
Justus proved he has stamina on the Flat
Back in April 2024, I tipped Justus to my Discord members when he ran over 2m 2f on Heavy ground at Pontefract. A standard two mile trip around Pontefract is a big stamina test at the best of times, but when you factor in the extra 2f and the bottomless conditions, it takes some real guts to come out of that race on top. He did only have 8st 8lb on his back, being at the bottom of the handicap, and with Aiden Brookes claiming 5lb, but it was still an almighty effort. He looked better and better the further he went too!
Considering his four Flat wins were over 1m 7f, 2m 0.5f, 2m 2f and 2m, you would be confident that he would stay further than 2m over hurdles. However, the majority of his runs over Hurdles, including his two more recent runs, were over the minimum trip. Connections now opt for a huge step up in trip from 1m 7.5f last time to 3m 0.5f this time. I think this might be right up his street and it could bring plenty of improvement!
Justus has dropped 14lb below his original mark over Hurdles
Justus was very underwhelming on his Hurdles debut back in November 2023 finishing 11th, beaten 47 lengths. The winner of that race was Heltenham, for Dan Skelton, who went on to peak at an official rating of 142. However, when Justus ran on Heavy ground at Catterick, his second start over Hurdles, he got his head in front by three lengths, producing a RPR of 108. He then chased home the talented Dysart Enos (135) at this track in January 2024, producing a RPR of 111.
Off the back of those three runs, he was awarded a rather tough-looking opening mark of 116. His connections ambitiously threw him into a Grade 2 race at Kelso, where he came up short, and was pulled up. That was in March 2024 and we didn’t see him over Hurdles again until last month. After two more poor runs over minimum trips, his opening mark of 116 has now dropped by a whole stone (14lb) to 102. In the space of four runs, he has gone down from Grade 2 company to a 0-110 Handicap, which is a huge difference! With the drop in grade and his lower handicap mark, he could be a different horse today.
With five wins on testing ground already, the expected rain is favourable
Justus has won five times in total, once in France, and four times in the UK. Four of his wins were on the Flat, and one was over Hurdles. However, they all have one thing in common, they all came on testing ground. His French win was on Very Soft ground, and his four UK wins were on Soft, Heavy, Heavy, and Soft, respectively.
The going at Doncaster is already Soft, Good to Soft in places, with further rain forecast, which shouldn’t bother Justus in the slightest. Of course, with a substantial step up in trip to consider, the more testing the ground gets, so we are taking a big risk on his stamina. However, not many horses would get 2m 2f around Pontefract on Heavy ground, and that gives me plenty of hope for today.
Can Justus capitalise on his reduced mark of 102?
When you look at the positives and negatives, I think 20/1 is a great price for Justus, although I do accept there is risk attached to this bet. In terms of the positives, he has already shown great stamina on the Flat and therefore, I think this step up in trip over Hurdles will bring out plenty of improvement. We also have the drop in grade and his lower handicap mark. His two runs at Doncaster have resulted in a win and a second place, so he clearly likes this track. Finally the ground looks to be going in his favour, especially if more rain falls.
In terms of negatives, Justus hasn't won since April 2024 in either discipline. He has yet to win a Handicap Hurdle, which is also a bit of a worry. Whilst I appreciate the negatives and the subsequent risk attached to this bet, there are plenty of positives and his 20/1 is too good to miss. As this is an each way bet, at odds of 20/1, we are getting 4/1 for him to finish in the first three places. That said, I’m only going half stakes to reflect the risks.
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