Key Points
- Today’s betting tip was very lightly ridden on his Chase debut
- This horse has his second run after a wind operation, a great time to catch him
- My selection looks to have a very progressive season ahead of him
Unfortunately, yesterday’s selection was an agonising fifth, with four places paid. He didn’t have a clear run turning in, he had to switch quite violently inside for a clear passage and he was then denied a place by less than a length. That cost us 3pts and with Best Odds Guaranteed, it was actually 5pts, considering he went off 20/1!
Anyway, moving on… if you’re new to my content, I’m Gav and I’m better known as RacingGav both here and on X/Twitter. I am a horse racing tipster and I’m the resident horse racing expert here. I produce multiple articles per week here and these are predominately focused around betting tips. The majority are daily betting tips, but I also include antepost too. In addition to that I provide big race trends, educational guides and much more! Speaking of trends, keep an eye out, as I’ll have some dropping for the Coral Gold Cup very shortly!
Betting advice
- 12:45 Newbury -
Koapey
@ 9/1 (3 places) -
1pt each way
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Warren Greatrex thinks Koapey can progress
Warren Greatrex is a master at progressing horses over fences and I think Koapey will follow that path. He switched to fences as a five-year-old, off a mark of just 119. Judging from his Chase debut, he is capable of rating far higher than that. Warren himself has spoken highly of the horse, so we are in agreement! Let’s hope he can prove us both right…
Koapey was very lightly ridden on his Chase debut
If you haven’t already, sit down and watch the footage of Koapey’s Chase debut at Uttoxeter. He jumped off prominently, and James Bowen tried his best to rein him in. Even after a slightly untidy jump at the first, he was right up with the leaders. At the second, he put in a fantastic jump which took him through to lead the field.
He was never far away from the lead but Mister Cessna ended up going on, with Koapey sitting in second. To my eye, James Bowen never wanted to win the race and it was purely an educational ride. This was further emphasised by the fact that he eased off coming to the last, allowing Koapey to just pop over the fence and furthermore, James Bowen never once drew or used his whip..!
That all suggests connections had a bigger plan in mind for this horse and I’d say that the plan is today. The winner of this race will scoop two to three times the amount Koapey collected on his debut.
This is Koapey’s second run after a wind operation, which is a good time to catch him
I do wonder if as well as giving him an educational day out over fences on his chasing debut, whether they also had his breathing in mind. He had wind operation after his final hurdles run, so that Uttoxeter run was his first performance on the track since having the surgery. Therefore, I wonder whether they just wanted to test it out under race conditions first, to ensure it was all in working order.
As a general rule, the second time out after a wind operation is the time that the horses perform best. This can be for a multitude of reasons and the widely believed one is that they realise during their first run that they can now breathe properly again. So on their second run, they have more confidence in their breathing and fully commit.
The other possible reason is that wind surgery means they lose some of their training time during the recovery process. Effectively that could leave them a run short of full fitness. Whatever the reasons, second time out after wind surgery is usually the time to catch them.
I feel Koapey could have a very progressive season ahead and getting weight from the field, he is dangerous!
I am under no illusions that this is a very strong line up, and almost all of these could be progressive and well handicapped over fences. This race is no gimme for certain. That said, the fact that Warren has sufficient confidence in Koapey to enter him here, when he could have found him easier races, speaks volumes.
Let’s take a look at the runners. Mambonumberfive, Bluey, Palacio and Secret Des Dieux all won last time out. As a result, they all have handicap rises, so they’ll need to progress further to win. It’s also interesting that Secret Des Dieux has won all of his races on sharp tracks, and Newbury certainly isn’t sharp, so it’s no surprise to see a big early drift for him. Captain Bellamy hasn’t been seen since March, so he will likely need the run. That leaves Mighty Bandit, stablemate of Koapey, who has been far from straightforward, and I’m not sure that chasing is the answer for him.
With the less than fully committed ride last time out, Koapey comes here off an unaltered mark of 119. As a result, he receives weight from every single horse in the race, ranging from 1lb-8lb and that even includes Mambonumberfive after his four-year-old allowance. That decision to save him for today could well pay dividends and I think this could be the starting point for a very progressive season for Koapey!
Can Koapey secure his first win over fences?
As you can tell from the above, I like Koapey for a lot of reasons. There have always been high hopes for him over fences. His run last time out was hugely eye-catching. And this is his second run after a wind operation, which is usually the time to catch them. Due to the way he was ridden last time, he comes here off an unaltered mark of 119 and receives weight from the whole field. Combining that with question marks over Captain Bellamy, Secret Des Dieux and Might Bandit, along with handicap rises to defy for Mambonumberfive, Bluey, Palacio and Secret Des Dieux, there is an awful lot to like about Koapey’s chances.
In terms of negatives, the competitiveness of the race must be respected, this is no gimme as I said. These are serious horses who could have great seasons ahead of them. The fact that over half of the field are last time out winners speaks volumes. I am also speculating that Koapey got beaten by design last time out and perhaps I have misjudged that.
All elements considered, I think Koapey has a strong chance of going close in this race. If he did bump into one or two very progressive horses, there would be no shame in that. If you listen to the market early doors, those two could be Mambonumberfive and Bluey. However, receiving plenty of weight from them both and with the “handbrake” coming off, I think Koapey could be a force to be reckoned with himself. If he was towards the top of the market, he may not be a bet in such a competitive race. However, at 9/1, the price is far too big to let him go and it has to be a solid each way bet in my opinion. Especially given the three places on offer. I’d be disappointed if more than two beat him here and I actually think he could cause an upset!
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