Key Points
- Today’s betting tip was a real eye-catcher on his last start at this track!
- He ran a career best last time over a distance that stretched him
- This race should have plenty of pace and suit his hold up style
We’ve had a fantastic week so far, with Jehol De Thaix and Geezer Rockstar both winning, at 5/2 and 14/1 respectively. As a result, our 2pts total stake multiplied to 12.9pts. We didn’t have a bet yesterday, but I put up one for
today’s action at Lingfield
instead, and I have another one at Newcastle here, so we have two today!
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Betting advice
- 16:10 Newcastle -
Parlando
@ 18/1 (4 places) -
1pt each way
Back Parlando with Betfred
At the time of writing, the
best horse racing odds
for Parlando stand at 18/1, and Betfred is one of several bookmakers offering that price. Betfred is also the stand out brand in terms of the welcome offer available. If you bet £10, you’ll get £50 in free bets. Fantastic value and just in time for a big weekend!
Parlando looks overpriced at his current 18/1 odds!
I’m confident that we are going to see Parlando outrun his odds today and in this article, I’ll break down my reasons for thinking that.
Parlando was a real eye-catcher on his last start at this track!
On his penultimate start in the UK back in January, Parlando tackled this course and distance. He was slowly away that day and he subsequently raced in rear. However, despite a steady tempo throughout the race, Parlando did exceptionally well to make up ground from the rear of the field. He ran through into second but King’s Code got the first run and was not for catching.
With the slow start and the ground made up off a slow gallop, the run can certainly be marked up. I’d also question how much Ryan Kavanagh really wanted to win that day. You could give him the benefit of the doubt and say he didn’t have the clearest of runs and he was perhaps just a bit soft in the saddle but the tentative handling looked suspect to me and I don’t think it was intended to be his day.
That run came off a mark of 89 and he was awarded a RPR of 93. Considering the winner ran off 97 and was awarded a RPR of 106, I think Parlando has been underestimated there. The run didn’t get the respect I believe it deserves from the BHA handicapper either with his mark only nudged up 1lb, if I was the connections of Parando, you never want a rise but I’d have been delighted with that.
Parlando ran a career best last time over a trip that stretched him
On his penultimate start overall, Parlando went over to St Moritz over in Switzerland. That is a very quirky set up where the racing takes place on a frozen lake in the Alps. Therefore, I find it easy to forgive a lesser performance there and I’d draw a line straight through it.
Off his 1lb higher mark of 90, Parlando ventured into unknown territory at Kempton last time out, as he stepped up in trip to 1m 4f. The steady gallop gave Parlando every chance of getting the trip that day but even still, he faded inside the final furlong. I think that trip just stretched him a little too much. That said, he still ran a cracker and arguably a career best, it certainly was on RPRs with a figure of 96 awarded.
On the bright side, that tame finish ensured that the handicapper left his mark unaltered at a figure of 90. Likewise, I think it’ll serve as the perfect preparation for this valuable pot and that could well have been the plan along, as Ian Williams is a shrewd operator and fantastic at target training his horses.
This race should have plenty of pace and suit Parlando’s hold up style
Parlando powers home over 1m 2f but he was stretched too far over 1m 4f the last day. Therefore, I think this drop back in trip but around a stiff track and with a strong pace to aim at, could be exactly what Parlando wants. As a general rule, when big prize money is put up and a competitive field lines up, you get a strong gallop, if not a relentless one. Parlando is a hold up type and those patient tactics could be perfect here, as he should be finishing with a rattle as those in front start to cry out for the finish line.
Looking at the contenders here, I’d be near certain that Antrim will go forward. It is also likely that Nolton Cross and Midnight Lion will want to go forward as well, which should help set the strong pace we’re hoping for. I’d also say Gaucher, Paradias and King’s Code will likely all be prominent at least too. Three of the aforementioned five are drawn in stall nine or higher. Therefore, they’ll likely have to go faster than they’d prefer to get across to the front of the field early doors. This factor should also contribute to the strong pace that we want for Parlando.
The worry would be that the stands side rail is the place to be at Newcastle but it can get congested which could cause headaches for Parlando trying to produce a big late effort. Therefore, Edward Greatrex in the saddle will need to be on his A game - Either making a move earlier than normal or perhaps being brave and steering clear of the stands side rail. As is often the case, especially with hold up horses, it could simply come down to whether or not he has lady luck on his side on the day.
Can Parlando outrun his 18/1 odds?
This race has £175,000 guaranteed with over £90,000 paid to the winner, over £40,000 paid to the second and over £20,000 waiting for the third placed finisher. Therefore, it’s unsurprisingly attracted a very competitive field with runners from both the UK and Ireland and it won’t be an easy race to win.
Whilst it won’t be easy, I’m confident that barring mishaps, Parlando can massively outrun his odds of 18/1, which I feel completely underestimate his chances. There are plenty of positives in his favour. He really caught the eye over this C&D three runs back, between the fact he had elements go against him and he still finished second but also the fact he appeared to be tentatively handled. After a lesser effort in Switzerland, which is easy to forgive, he bounced back with a career best effort at Kempton. That should have been the perfect preparation to get him spot on for this and off an unaltered mark, I think he can run a huge race. That is only enhanced by the fact that it looks like the race will be run to suit with a strong pace expected, which could set it up for a hold up type like Parlando.
In terms of negatives, he is 0/5 at the track, which is a slight worry. However, he clearly acts here as he’s got three seconds and a third from those five runs. There is also the fact he’s running off a mark which is 7lb above the highest mark he’s won off. However, he’s gone close off similar marks to this, he was in career best form last time out and he’s still only 7, so further improvement wouldn’t be a surprise. Finally on the negative front, there will be an element of luck required with his hold up style, as it doesn’t open him up to a hard luck story. However, the strong pace should help bring the leaders back to him, so it’s just a case of avoiding traffic problems, albeit that is easier said than done.
All aspects considered, I just cannot see why he is an 18/1 shot here. I think that is far too big of a price for Parlando. I do appreciate there are some negatives but I’d be very hopeful that he could run into the places here at least and with a bit of luck, I’d not be shocked if he came home in front. Given the negatives outlined above, I was tempted to reduce the stake down but with so much value in the 18/1 available, I’m playing a full 1pt Each Way stake. If he gets a strong pace to aim at and the necessary luck in-running, he’ll be finishing with a flourish and hopefully passing them all to come home in front!
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