Key Points
- Today’s betting tip is proven at this unique course
- My selection ran a solid race last time out
- The more rain the better for this horse
We had a great run for our money yesterday as Dandy’s Angel was sent off at an unbelievable price of 20/1 before finishing third. She certainly got my heart rate elevated as she was bang there with a furlong to run and traded as low as 2.18 in-running on the Betfair Exchange. Sadly, two others finished the race off stronger on the day but I’ll take a 20/1 place any day of the week! Our 0.5pt each way bet returned 2.5pts with Best Odds Guaranteed and gets the month off to a strong start. I’m looking to add to that today and I think I have just the horse on Day 1 of the Betfred Derby Festival!
Hopefully as you read this, you will already know who I am but just in case you do not, allow me to introduce myself. I’m Gav and I’m better known as RacingGav here at betting.co.uk where I am the resident horse racing expert. I launched an X/Twitter account called RacingGav back in February 2022 and it stuck, with a following of over 16,000 built since then. Although I have been betting on the horses for many more years than that away from the online world!
Each week, I produce
free horse racing tips. Like this one, the majority of my tips are on a daily basis but I do also provide other forms of betting tips too. For example, I quite regularly provide antepost selections, especially for the big meetings and each Saturday, I also produce a Lucky 15 from the races being shown on ITV Racing.
My content is wider than just tipping though as I also produce big race trends, horses to follow, trainers to follow and even educational guides. Speaking of the latter, I have one on different types of
horse racing headgear, which is topical as today’s selection wears cheekpieces. Another relevant guide is
Horses for Courses - The Impact of Track Bias, as Epsom is a particularly unique track!
Betting advice
- 15:15 Epsom -
Alpha Crucis
@ 10/1 (5 places) -
0.75pt each way
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He looks ready to strike and this looks to be a great opportunity!
I have been waiting for this horse since August last year and this now looks like it could be the right day for him. He is certainly handicapped to strike, so hopefully it falls kindly for him on the day. In the remainder of this article, I’ll break down my reasons as to why I think he can win this race.
Alpha Crucis is proven at this unique course
A huge factor at Epsom is the course as it is certainly quirky! It is a “U” shaped course that contains about everything a horse could face. It has turns, camber, downhill sections and uphill sections. Horses running here will be tested in many different ways and whilst some will handle it, many do not. Therefore, this is one of the tracks, where I give a lot of respect to previous course form and I would fear a lack of it.
Thankfully for us, Alpha Crucis is proven over this course. He ran here all the way back in April 2023 as a three-year-old, finishing second, only being headed inside the final 110yds. He came to this meeting last year in the 1m 0.5f handicap and again finished second, keeping on at the finish but unable to reel in the winner. Therefore, we have two strong examples of where he has handled the track. Hopefully it will be a case of third time lucky at the track for him after bumping into two unexpectedly good ones!
Alpha Crucis ran a solid race last time out
I thought that Alpha Crucis ran a very respectable race on his reappearance run at the end of March. Given that was his first run for 154 days and he would have preferred more of a test, I was more than happy with his run in fifth, beaten just over two lengths. The fact he was sent off at 28/1 screams that he was expected to improve for the run.
I also believe that at this stage of his career, he either wants 1m 2f or testing ground and on that day, he has 1m on Good to Soft. To me, he was sticking to the task well but just lacked that extra gear at the business end to be challenging for the race. With similar Good to Soft ground expected here, I think it’s the right call to step up to this 1m 2f race rather than trying to go one better in the 1m 0.5f race later in the card. If it was bottomless ground, they may well have been tempted by the shorter trip but given the ground and his age, I think this 1m 2f trip is the right call.
The more rain the better for Alpha Crucis
When we were having the heat wave, I would have feared for Alpha Crucis running at this meeting as he has been a non-runner on Good and Good to Firm ground on numerous occasions as it simply doesn’t suit him. The latest example was actually last month when he was declared to run at Goodwood but was subsequently withdrawn. Ironically the exact same scenario happened last year, so he came straight here and ran a huge race; a repeat of that would be lovely!
Thankfully over the past few days, we have seen plenty of rain fall which has softened the ground up to an official - Good to Soft. With a little more rain forecast between me typing this article and the race, I’m hoping it could soften further. Ultimately I think he wants it as soft as it can get but I would be happy with anything close to Soft! If it stays as it is, I’ll take it but I will be doing my rain dance!
Circling back to my earlier mention of August last year, he ran at Sandown that day, over this 1m 2f trip and on Soft ground. I backed him at 16/1, he went off at 10/1 but he was denied by Saddadd. It was both great race riding by Ray Dawson to deny him a clear run but I also felt we bumped into a very smart horse. The latter was proved correct as Saddadd is now a Group 3 winner, placed in Group 1 company and rated 116. A repeat of that performance chasing him home off this identical mark of 92, would see Alpha Crucis tough to beat here.
Can Alpha Crucis make it third time lucky at Epsom?
I really rate the chance of Alpha Crucis here. He has course form which is crucial at Epsom and not once but twice. He ran a pleasing race on his reappearance and I’d expect him to step forward for that run. Especially as I think this trip is more suitable on Good to Soft ground. The easing of the ground falls in his favour and the more that falls, the sweeter I’d be on his chance. I’d forgive his last two runs, being at the end of the season and the start of the next one. Either of his two runs prior when second to Saddadd and Cerulean Bay respectively, would give him an outstanding chance of going one better here and hopefully that is the Alpha Crucis we see! With just 8st 8lb on his back, he’ll think he’s running free, so it certainly won’t be the weight that stops him.
In terms of negatives, he finished second here last year, then again at Sandown and Goodwood, so you just fear the same could happen again. Especially given those runs came off marks of 93, 92 and 93, with him running off 92 again today. In a valuable handicap at a big meeting, there is always that chance you’re going to bump into a group horse on its way to the top, as we saw against Saddadd. Furthermore, I would have preferred a bit more rain than we have had and that is a niggling concern, albeit I’m hoping the longer trip helps to negate that. Finally, being drawn in stall 11 is far from kind and I would rather that he was drawn lower. That said, he is often dropped in, so I’m hoping it doesn’t inconvenience him too much. In fact, swinging wide could see him with a clear run down the outside of the field rather than being more reliant on luck down the inside.
All elements considered, I certainly feel that he needs to be a bet at a double figure price. If the ground was softer and he was drawn a little lower, I’d be tempted to have a hefty stake on him here. However, given the draw, ground and the fact he’s had multiple bridesmaid moments off similar marks, I’ve trimmed the stake down to 0.75pt each way. I really do think he has a cracking chance though, so I’m not prepared to trim it down any further.
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