Key Points
- Today’s betting tip is handicapped 9lb below his last winning mark
- He was let down by a poor ride from Jack Tudor last time out
- The pace, trip and testing ground should be perfect for him
Today’s selection is a big one! He’s currently priced up at 15/2 but I can see him going off much shorter, especially as he was popular in the market last time out. I think he was given a very poor ride that day and he can make amends now! The horse runs in the North Wales National which takes place at Bangor-On-Dee at 13:55.
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Betting advice
- 13:55 Bangor -
Planned Paradise
@ 15/2 (4 places) -
2pt each way
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Jack Tudor will be looking to make amends!
I genuinely feel that Planned Paradise was beaten last time out at Windsor because of a poor ride from Jack Tudor. Even if he hadn't won, he certainly could have finished much closer with a clear run and a better ride. That said, I think he can get redemption today!
Planned Paradise is handicapped 9lb below his last winning mark
The last win for Planned Paradise was just over 12 months ago at Windsor’s Winter Millions meeting. That win came off a mark of 107 and he produced a strong RPR of 117. He beat some nice horses that day, namely Fortunate Man, Zertakt and Animal. I tipped him to my Discord members that day, as it’s a race his trainer likes to target, and he delivered at a fantastic price of 25/1.
He has now dropped down to a mark of 98, 9lb below his last winning mark of 107, so he should be handicapped to strike today. If you go further back through his form, he has previously won off marks as high as 113. On three occasions during his career he has produced an RPR of 128, so he certainly has plenty of ability on a good day.
Planned Paradise was let down by a poor ride from Jack Tudor last time
I believe Planned Paradise was laid out for the Windsor race again this year, looking to repeat last year’s victory. After winning that race last year, he ran in some respectable races off an increased mark in the early 110’s. He was then put away for a break from July to October. After returning he ran four times, and on each occasion he was ridden by amateur jockey J J Murphy-Knight. I believe this was an attempt to get his mark back down.
It worked, as he rocked up at Windsor in January off a mark of 100, 7lb below his winning mark from the year before. I advised him as a bet at 14/1 and he was backed all the way into 10/3, so the money was down. However, Jack Tudor gave him an awful ride quite frankly. He held him up in the rear of the 16-strong field and he struggled to find gaps to make headway. He got shuffled back a couple of times and subsequently had too much to do. Once in the clear, he stayed on strongly after the last, but only managing to make sixth place.
This pace, trip and testing ground should be perfect for Planned Paradise
With a marathon trip and testing ground here, we should get a real stamina test, which should suit Planned Paradise perfectly. For me, this feels very much like a shot at redemption with similar conditions to last time. Providing the run hassn’t come too soon, and he holds his form, I think he can make amends here. Based on the fact that Christian Williams is prepared to run him again so soon, he must be bouncing at home.
Looking at the field it looks like there will be plenty of pace on. Gold Emery, Rosscahill and Icaque De L’Isle all like to go forward. Similarly, Enjoy D’Allen, Betterforeveryone, Georges Saint and Wal Buck’s typically race prominently. All of this indicates that the race is likely to be run at a strong tempo, which is exactly what Planned Paradise needs as a hold up horse.
Planned Paradise can pick them off one by one
Off a mark of 108, Planned Paradise is handicapped to win. He is 9lb below his last winning mark and he has won off 15lb higher in the past. I think he was in the right form to win last time out, with conditions to suit, but a poor ride was very costly for him. His connections sometimes mess around over shorter trips between marathon races, but they go straight in for another long distance race here, suggesting they’re looking to make up for last time out. This trip, the ground and the expected strong pace should all help his cause.
In terms of the negatives, it was a disappointing run on paper last time, but I think he had a huge excuse in the way he was ridden by Jack last time out. He was held up in rear and then ran into traffic issues, which ultimately left him with too much to do. With more luck in-running and a wiser ride by Jack Tudor, I think he can bounce back today. The 2lb drop in weights, and the slightly smaller field add to his chances too.
All things considered, I think he has a massive chance of winning this year's North Wales National, and at 15/2 with four places on offer at Betway, I think he is well worth a strong 2pt each way bet. After Big City Roller winning yesterday, we can hopefully make it back to back winners!
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