Key Points
- Today’s betting tip has finished third in this race previously
- This horse has previous form to back up his credentials here
- His prep run over Hurdles should have blown the cobwebs away
Stintino Sunset ran a very solid race for us yesterday. However, it was frustrating that Dylan Hogan kept trying for a run up the rail, which was never going to work. By the time he shifted out wider, it was too late to make a real impact. Stintino Sunset ran on, finishing in fourth place in a dead heat, meaning we only received half of our expected return.
Anyway, today is another day, and I have found a horse at Chester that has every chance of winning his race, and he lines up for the feature race, The Chester Cup!
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the impact of track bias, which is particularly pertinent here, given that Chester is a track with a very strong bias.
Betting advice
- 15:05 The Chester Cup -
Zanndabad
@ 14/1 (5 places) -
0.75pt each way
For the best odds and place terms head to bet365
At the time of writing, the
best horse racing odds
for Zanndabad stand at 14/1. However, bet365 is offering five places, compared to the four at most other bookies! The value doesn’t end there either. If you sign up and
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Zanndabad has unfinished business in the Chester Cup!
As I’ll come onto later in the article, Zanndabad should have won a previous renewal of this race. Everybody knows he should have won, including trainer Tony Martin who brings him back for redemption.
Zanndabad has finished third in this race previously
Back in 2024, Zanndabad was sent over for this race by his Irish trainer, Tony Martin. Whenever he sends runners over you need to be vigilant, especially when it’s a race like this one. For some context, Tony has had 14 winners, and a further 30 top four finishes from 101 Flat runners in Handicap races. As a result he has earned over £1,000,000 and most impressively, produced a profit of +£27.25 to a £1 level stake.
In the 2024 Chester Cup renewal, Zanndabad was dropped into the rear by jockey Richard Kingscote and held up. He was tucked in towards the rail, which is ideal in terms of conserving energy, but it can also be a tricky spot to manoeuvre out from. As they swung for home, he was travelling well but had nowhere to go, and by the time Richard Kingscote forced his way out for a run it was all too late, and he came in third, just one length back from the winner.
For some further context, the winner, Zoffee, ran the final 2f in 23.8 seconds. Emiyn, who placed second, ran it in 24.13 seconds, and Zannabad clocked 23.3 seconds over the same distance. To finish so much faster just shows how much he had to give,but sadly he didn’t see daylight until the 1f pole. In terms of distance, he ran 11.6 metres more than the winner who only beat him by a length. Simply put, if he had a clear run, he would have won.
His third place in the 2024 Chester Cup is not the only strong form Zanndabad has in the book either. On his next start, he was sent off as 9/2F for the Ascot Stakes. He travelled supremely well, but the 2m 4f trip on a stiff course like Ascot was just too much for him, and he weakened late on to finish sixth.
He then went to the Curragh for the Irish Cesarewitch but he was unsuited by the start stop gallop over the 2m 1f trip. He also had to wait for room over 2f out, which further ruined his chances. He did keep on well inside the final furlong, but again he could only finish sixth, seven and half lengths off the winner, The Euphrates.
His next three starts were over 1m 6f, 1m 4f, and 1m 5f, which are inadequate really. However, he ran a cracker at York’s Ebor meeting over the 1m 4f trip. Yet again, he was denied a clear run and lost his position 2f out but once in the clear, he rallied inside the final furlong and took fourth on the line. With a clear run, he’d have gone very close!
A prep run over Hurdles should have blown the cobwebs away
The plus side to those final three runs over lesser trips is that they have seen his mark come down. His third in this race last year came off a mark of 92 and after that he was raised to 94. He ran off 94 in both the Ascot Stakes and the Irish Cesarewitch before his mark started to ease. He’s now dropped down to 91, which is 1lb lower than when he was third in this race two years ago. Considering he would have won that day with a clear run, he certainly looks handicapped to strike here.
I would not be surprised at all if this has been a long term plan in Tony Martin’s mind. I find it particularly interesting that after being absent from the Flat for 133 days, Tony decided to give Zanndabad a spin over Hurdles last month. That was in a Grade 1 at the Aintree Festival, which with all due respect, he had no real chance of winning, hence his SP of 40/1. It looked like a tune up run for the Chester Cup and the benefit of running over Hurdles is that his Flat mark would be protected, regardless of how he ran. With that recent run under his belt, he should be in peak condition for this second crack at the Chester Cup.
Can Zanndabad go two places better this time?
I certainly feel that Zanndabad ticks a lot of boxes when assessing his chance of beating his third in this race two years ago. The run that day alone gives him every chance, considering he was an extremely unlucky loser. With the troubled run and the extra distance covered, along with the fact he finished full of running, it really was a horrid hard luck story in 2024. That was no fluke performance either, as his runs in the Ascot Stakes and Irish Cesarewitch showed plenty of promise too, considering he had excuses for both. The fact he’s had a prep run over hurdles means that he should be fit and ready for this today and as it was run over hurdles, his eye-catching mark of 91 was protected.
In terms of negatives, he failed to get the job done in 2024. Whilst he has the excuse of a troubled run, there is no reason he won’t receive another one this time around as well. Especially given that he often adopts hold up tactics, he is at the mercy of lady luck. Given his draw this time around, I’m hoping they may jump out handier with him in an effort to avoid what happened in 2024. It is also rather worrying that despite his talent, he is 0/8 on the Flat Turf in the UK and Ireland with all four wins coming from his French days between 2021 and 2022.
I feel he has a fantastic chance off a 1lb lower mark than last time. Of course, he needs the race to go his way, but to a degree, so do they all. Given his hold up style and tendency to be beaten with excuses, I have trimmed the stake down to 0.75pt each way. However, with odds of 14/1 and five places available, he is well worth backing.
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