Key Points
- I have a Lucky 15 across the ITV Racing action for you!
- All four of these races will be shown live on ITV
- I have selected four horses that I feel represent great value
With my one bet a day on Betting.co.uk, I appreciate my usual slow and steady profit style won’t be for everybody. Therefore with the more casual punters tuning in with it being Saturday, we’re having another go at a Lucky 15 today across the ITV Racing action. Three of the four come from the action at Ascot and the other comes from across the Irish Sea at Down Royal.
If you’re not familiar with my content already, I’m RacingGav and I’m the resident horse racing tipster here at Betting.co.uk. I run my own tipping service through a Discord server but four to five times per week, I produce content to be hosted here for free. This is predominately sharing one of my betting tips, whether that be for the day itself or antepost. However, I also produce other types of content such as big race trends and educational guides too. Therefore, I hope there is something for everybody to enjoy.
If you are newer to betting on the horses, then the educational articles will likely be a worthwhile read for you in order to further develop your understanding of the sport. These cover topics such as the UK Handicap System, National Hunt Racing, and
Horses For Courses
(the impact different tracks have on horses). These will contain insights that will hopefully take your knowledge and subsequently your punting to the next level.
Betting advice - An Each Way Lucky 15
- 14:05 Ascot - Shakeyourtailfeather @ 16/1 (4 places)
- 14:40 Down Royal - Found A Fifty @ 5/1 (2 places)
- 15:10 Ascot - Fasol @ 7/1 (4 places)
- 15:45 Ascot - Neon Moon @ 7/1 (4 places)
bet365 is the best value for today’s Lucky 15
At the time of writing, bet365 doesn’t have the best odds for our Lucky15, so you may wonder why I’m recommending them. The reason is the place terms, as they’re offering four places for the first, third and fourth legs of our bet. Whereas others are only offering three places in each of these races. In addition to that, bet365 have a fantastic sign up offer. If you
bet £10, they’ll give you £30 of free bets. Unless you already have an account, I recommend you take advantage.
I feel there is fantastic value in the prices on offer
As per the weeks that have come before, I have gone down the each way route rather than backing horses to win only. As a rule, I tend to be found deeper down the market anyway but with the structure of a Lucky 15, you can even make a very healthy profit from just finding horses that place at nice prices. Therefore for me, unless I have four very strong fancies, the each way option is usually the way I lean.
Shakeyourtailfeather @ 16/1 - This horse could be going under the radar
In the 2m 1f Handicap Chase at Ascot, Dan Skelton’s L’Eau du Sud heads the market. He is a seriously talented horse, as he showed in Graded Novice company last season. However, whether he is well handicapped off a mark of 155 is another matter.
I feel that him being in the race, completely takes all eyes away from the other runner that Dan Skelton unleashes on this race and that is Shakeyatailfeather at 16/1. Dan Skelton has won two of the last five renewals (albeit one was later disqualified) and I’m sure this £100,000 race would have been circled on his calendar for some time. He is looking to amass a prize money total that Willie Mullins cannot catch this season and this would be a big help towards that.
Shakeyourtailfeather won a lesser race last time but she did so in a seriously impressive manner and she’s progressive, so I see no reason why she cannot step forward again here. She will need to off a 9lb higher mark than for her win, racing 1lb out of the handicap, however in this company she only carries 10st 2lb. That is a huge help and even more so is the fact that Harry Adkins rides, claiming 7lb and subsequently bringing that weight on her back down just 9st 9lb. I feel she’s flying under the radar here at 16/1 and could spring a surprise.
Found A Fifty @ 5/1 - He has stamina to prove but I think he’ll stay three miles
We then head across the Irish Sea to Down Royal for the Champion Chase over three miles. On paper, this is a three horse race with Envoi Allen, Spillane’s Tower and Found A Fifty all clear of the rest of the field on ratings. Whilst I can see a couple of the opposition running solid races in defeat, I think it will prove that these three are a class above and they should have this race between them.
I hugely respect Envoi Allen but at the age of 11 now, he’s not for me and at a very short price, he needs to be taken on. That leaves me with Spillane’s Tower and Found A Fifty. I would be concerned for Spillane’s Tower with the amount of rainfall at Down Royal, as he needs Soft ground. Also, he is only a seven-year-old, so there is every chance he will improve again this season and if so, he could be a tough nut to crack.
However, at the prices, I’m siding with Gordon Elliott’s horse, Found A Fifty. He’s yet to tackle three miles but he has stayed intermediate trips strongly before. I also like the way he doesn’t do a great deal in front, often idling instead of going to win his race in style. That kind of laziness will give him every chance of staying the longer trip here. Gordon thinks he will stay and I agree with him. If he does, he’s the top rated horse in the race, he’s a course winner and he could even improve for the trip!
Fasol @ 7/1 - He’s not easy to win with but this could be his day
Fasol is sure to be quite a contentious selection, as he can be a very frustrating horse who proves to be hard to win with. However, at the same time, he is routinely banging on the door in his races and a horse that can consistently run into the frame is the type you want here in this Lucky 15. He was sent off 5/2 favourite at Chepstow but I felt he’d need the run and to me, he shaped like that was the case.
As a result, I’m willing to overlook that reappearance performance and if we judge him on his third in a hot handicap at Sandown, he has to be a serious contender here. That run came off a mark of 117 and he now comes here 1lb lower. With that Chepstow run under his belt, he should also be as fit as fiddle here.
The factor that could make the difference is that he intended to line up here with 10st 7lb on his back. That is already a lovely weight but Paul has booked Freddie Keighley to ride and take off a further 7lb, which means he will effectively run off a mark of just 109 and he’ll only carry 10st. After carrying weights between 11st and 11st 12lb last season, he’ll think he’s running free with this weight on his back.
Neon Moon @ 7/1 - He ran a cracker in this race last year he’s 6lb lower now
Last but certainly not least, we have Neon Moon for the David Pipe yard. Last season, this horse broke my heart as I had backed Pull Again Green at Chepstow’s Jump Season Opener meeting and this fella came and nabbed him late on. That win came off a mark of 132, where he was racing from 4lb out of the handicap having only been rated 128.
He proved that to be no fluke performance when third in this very race last year off a mark of 136, only beaten by Chianti Classico and Highstakesplayer and there is no shame in that. He now comes back for another crack at this £100,000 pot off a 6lb lower mark of 130 and that could be the difference this time around.
He was intended to follow the same path i.e. running at Chepstow but sadly he was a non-runner due to the ground. Therefore, he comes here first time out this season rather than second but that is no concern as we know from Chepstow last year and the season prior that they can get him fit and ready to win first time out.
Can we land four places with our Lucky 15?
With each of these four selections, I feel we have a great chance of hitting the places and as touched upon, with the structure of this bet, that is enough to secure a very healthy profit from the bet. It goes without saying that the ultimate goal is to pick four winners but we also have to be realistic as well, those days will be very few and far between, if ever.
The opening leg - Shakeyourtailfeather is a more risky selection but at the same time, it would put us in a fantastic position if he could run into the frame or better at 16/1 or better and then we have the shorter priced horses to run. Found A Fifty carries his own risks around stamina but I think he can prove the doubters wrong. The final two legs then look rock solid for the place element and hopefully with a bit of luck, they can get their heads in front.
As always, if nothing else, this bet and the four horses within it, should provide us with plenty of entertainment across the ITV Racing action. Let’s hope it’s more than just entertainment received though come 4pm.
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