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Horse Racing Tips - Saturday 10 January 2026 - Kempton

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Publish Date: 10/01/2026

Fact checked by: Jordan Noble

Key Points

Today’s horse racing tip could be underestimated by a 5lb rise
The two ahead of him in the market may not have the scope to beat him
The strong pace expected could set the race up perfectly for him

For my main horse racing betting tip on Saturday, I have opted for the 2m 4.5f Handicap Chase at Kempton where I think they have the wrong horses at the top of the market. Whilst my selection is currently sat third in the market, I’d actually have him as the one that they all have to beat. With two ahead of him in the market, I subsequently feel there is juice in his price and he’s well worth a bet today!

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Betting advice

12:55 Kempton - Old Cowboy @ 7/2 - 1 pt Win

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He may be called Old Cowboy but he’s young and unexposed!

Whilst some of the horses here are coming towards the back stretch of their career, and others are reaching their Handicap ceiling, Old Cowboy is unexposed and improving. In fact, I think he has plenty more improvement to come and certainly enough to win this race.

Old Cowboy could be underestimated by a 5lb rise

Just under two weeks ago, Old Cowboy went to Newbury, and he absolutely demolished what looked to be quite a competitive race. Despite the 2m trip being on the sharp side for him, and this being his Chase debut, he won readily. He seemed to absolutely thrive on the flat track and faster ground.

Given the competitiveness of the race on paper, and the style in which he won, I was quite shocked that he only received a 5lb rise, taking him from 121 to 126. In all honesty, I don’t think they could have had many complaints if the rise had been double that. If the RPR is to be believed, he produced a performance 12lb better than his mark of 121, achieving a rating of 133. I think the 5lb rise might underestimate him, especially now that he steps up in trip.

I’m not sure the two ahead of Old Cowboy in the market have the scope to beat him

Leader In The Park won twice last season off marks of 120 and 124. In his next two races, he failed to win off a mark of 129. He was subsequently dropped 1lb, and finished second on his reappearance run at Newbury off a mark of 128. However, he was raised 4lb for that, and is now 8lb higher than his last winning mark, and 3lb higher than the mark he couldn’t win off last season. He may well improve for his Newbury run in terms of fitness wise but he’ll need to.

Go West has been pretty prolific for the Paul Nicholls stable, winning five of his 11 starts, and finishing second on a further three occasions. Last season he won three of his five Hurdle starts and he kicked his Chasing career off with a win this season. However, off a 4lb higher mark, he was beaten at Doncaster last time out and he’s 3lb higher following that performance.

With both horses receiving harsh rises in defeat, I think they could be handicapped out of it now. I certainly feel that Old Cowboy receiving 5lb for his emphatic win looks extremely generous by comparison.

The strong pace expected could set the race up perfectly for Old Cowboy

What I find the most interesting about this race is the pace expected. Leader In The Park, Go West, and Lookaway all like to lead, and we could well see all three of them go forward. If this comes to fruition, this race could be run at a blistering pace. It would be no surprise if two, or even all three, take each other on and ruin their own chances in the process.

I think this could be the perfect setup for Old Cowboy, who clearly had the pace to win over two miles last time, but is expected to be even better over further. A strong pace should be no hindrance for him, as I think he’ll just drop in behind it and travel strongly throughout the race. But when his rivals begin to get tired in front, he’ll be ready to pounce.

Can Old Cowboy record back to back wins at Kempton today?

As mentioned, I feel that 5lb rise could really underestimate Old Cowboy here. Similarly, I think the top two in the market have been quite harshly treated, as they have received handicap rises without even winning their last races. I think they’ll subsequently find it tough to give the weight away to this improving younger horse. When you combine all of that with the expected setup of the race, this looks like a fantastic opportunity for Old Cowboy to win again.

In terms of negatives, I’m struggling to find one in all honesty, but there is a tiny caveat. Although Old Cowboy’s main rivals have been raised without winning, they were raised because they are in strong form, and running well. Meaning this race is no freebie, it’s competitive, and I do have respect for his rivals here.

Personally, I’d have Old Cowboy as the one they have to beat and if I was a bookmaker, I’d have him favourite. I think a price of 5/2-11/4 would be more than fair and I wouldn’t even say that he’d look out of place at 2/1 or perhaps even 7/4. Therefore, I think there is value in the 7/2 currently available and I’d not be surprised if he went off shorter. Given the lack of negatives and the juice in his price, I feel a full 1pt win bet is the play here. Out of respect for his rivals, I’m keeping it to just 1pt and not going any higher on the stake.

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