Key Points
- Today’s horse racing betting tip is being overlooked due to his latest run
- This horse has now dropped back to his last winning mark
- The ground seems to be swinging in his favour for today’s race
For my main horse racing betting tip today I have tackled the feature race on the Cheltenham December Meeting card, the December Gold Cup. This £125,000 Handicap looks like a cracker again this year, and I think one horse in the field has been completely overlooked. At a double figure price, I think he’s a superb each way bet!
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Betting advice
- 13:50 Cheltenham -
Il Ridoto
@ 12/1 (4 places) -
1pt each way
bet365 has the best odds and place terms
At the time of writing, bet365 has the
best horse racing odds
for Il Ridoto. In addition, they have four places for the December Gold Cup, when most other bookies are only offering three. As if that wasn’t fantastic enough, they also have a great new customer sign up offer. If you bet £10, you’ll get £30 in free bets. Superb all round value right here!
In a very competitive renewal, I have opted for value
11 runners are set to go to post for the 2025 renewal of the December Gold Cup, and if I tried, I could make a case for the majority of them. So we should be in for a cracking race if nothing else. However, in a race this competitive, I’m not playing at the top of the market, I want some juice in the price to get involved. Il Ridoto offers exactly that at 12/1. Frankly I think he should be half of that price, if not shorter.
Il Ridoto is being overlooked due to his latest run
Horse racing punters are perhaps one of those most fickle bunch out there. You’ll struggle to find many sports where there is such a strong recency bias. In the build up to the Paddy Power Gold Cup, Il Ridoto was heading the market, having won the race the previous year. But as the rain started to fall, the ground started to soften, and he started to drift. Eventually, he was sent off 8/1, on unsuitable ground, and understandably ran below par.
As the ground was unfavourable, I find that run very easy to forgive. Especially as Il Ridoto proved his wellbeing with his run at Chepstow in October. That form was franked by the winner, Saint Segal, who finished second on his next start in the Haldon Gold Cup (Grade 2) before winning a £50,000 Handicap at Kelso last weekend.
Il Ridoto has now dropped back to his last winning mark
Heading into the 2025 Paddy Power Gold Cup, Il Ridoto was rated 1lb higher than his last winning mark, which was in the same race last year. This was a huge driving force behind the early support before the weather turned against him. After a below par run on unfavourable ground, he dropped another 1lb, and is now back to his last winning mark of 141.
When he won the Paddy Power Gold Cup in 2024, Il Ridoto raced off a mark of 141. That’s 1lb below the mark where he finished second on his reappearance run, and he also finished third over this C&D in January 2024, off a 7lb higher mark. In addition, when Il Ridoto ran in the 2023 renewal of this race, he was only beaten by a short head off a 2lb higher mark, where once again, the ground came up far softer than ideal.
The ground is swinging in Il Ridoto’s favour this time round
It’s officially Good to Soft going at Cheltenham, but yesterday's times suggest it’s more like Good ground, and we have a dry forecast today. This should play right into Il Ridoto’s hands, and as a result, I see him as one of the main contenders, yet he’s priced at 12/1. This price looks far too big, and I’m happy to capitalise on it!
I suspect that ‘Good’ will creep into the official going for Cheltenham by the time this race is run. The only reason I can see for that not happening is if the clerk of the course is reluctant to announce it too soon, for fear of having non-runners. After all, most National Hunt trainers want, and expect, typical winter going for their horses at this time of year. I think if the clerk of the course was being completely honest, he would have revised his going description already.
For some context, the three Chase races here yesterday (excluding the Cross Country) recorded times that were fast by 0.30s and 1.63s, then slow by 1.45s respectively. Based on times alone, that would suggest Good going, rather than the ‘official’ Good to Soft currently being peddled...
Can Il Ridoto win today with the ground in his favour?
In terms of the positives, it’s clear that Il Ridoto loves it at Cheltenham, considering that he already has the New Years Day Handicap and a Paddy Power Gold Cup on his CV. He’s also handicapped to strike, now that he is back to the mark where he won the Paddy Power Gold Cup. Maybe the most crucial factor of all is in the hands of the weather gods, but the ground certainly appears to be swinging in his favour!
In terms of negatives, he needs to bounce back from a below par run last time out. However, I think that is pretty easy to forgive as the ground went against him and there was no secret about that, the market drift told you the outcome before the race did. The other negative is that he is far more exposed than many in this field, with 27 Chase starts, and 16 of those at Cheltenham, so he could be vulnerable to a less-exposed and progressive type. On the flip side, you could argue that he has a wealth of experience, and we know he performs here.
When it comes to the price, my gut feeling is that they have it very wrong here. Prior to the rain falling, Il Ridoto was the market favourite for the Paddy Power Gold Cup, yet now that he potentially has his ideal conditions, he’s seventh in the market. Without any exaggeration, I see him worthy of half his current 12/1 price, making him fantastic value. I believe he entirely justifies a full 1pt each way bet.
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