
It was fantastic to produce a 17/2 winner yesterday at Yarmouth in the form of Heer’s Sadie! The 0.5pt Each Way bet returned a fantastic 6.1pts, ensuring we sit in profit for August to date! Hopefully with today’s selection, we can make it back to back winners and further add to that pot of profit!
If you’re new here, welcome! I’m RacinGav and I produce several articles each and every week here for Betting.co.uk. My main focus is providing free horse racing tips for you readers. This can be a mixture of daily betting tips, antepost selections and also more fun bets like a Lucky 15.
Speaking of, I have already published a Lucky 15 article earlier today which is live at the time you are reading this. Therefore, be sure to check that out as well as this article!
As I write this article, Just Dottie is generally priced up around 9/2-11/2. However, the best horse racing odds come from bet365 who have her priced up at an extremely generous 13/2! That alone makes them worth using but they also have a great new customer offer - If you bet ÂŁ10 get ÂŁ30 of free bets. Therefore, it is exceptional value from both angles!
In her career to date, 17/24 of Just Dottie’s starts over hurdles have come at Perth, so she certainly knows her way around this track! She has done plenty of winning here, with even more solid runs in defeat. I think she can record another course success today and in the following sections, I’ll break down why, so make sure you read on.
In a spell of less than two years, Just Dottie produced four wins here at Perth, so she certainly loves this track and knows how to get her head in front.
The latest of those four wins came in May last year and she produced that victory off a mark of 105. With her now 3lb lower than that mark, racing off 102, she’s certainly handicapped to win if she puts her best foot forward.
All four of the Perth victories on Just Dottie’s record have come over the 2m trip. So far, other than 2m0.5f at Market Rasen, she is yet to step beyond the minimum trip over hurdles.
However, in many of her efforts, she has been staying on powerfully which suggests to me that she’ll stay this longer trip. Similarly as she gets older, she seems to get caught lacking a bit of speed before rallying late, which again, suggests to me that she could relish this step up in trip to 2m4f.
Looking at the potential set up of the race, Cosmic Soul and O’Faolains Glory both tend to race prominently but there is no out and out leader in this line up. Likewise, the rest of the field either drop into midfield or they are held up. If there was an even or steady pace over this trip, it could be the perfect way to test her stamina for the new trip.
Just Dottie is allocated 11st 4lb to carry today. However, Ben Smith takes the ride and he has a very valuable 7lb claim. As a result, Just Dottie will actually shoulder just 10st 11lb instead, which is a much easier task, especially over this longer trip.
Along with the lack of experience/winners generally, the biggest concern with bringing in claiming jockeys is that they more often than not don’t know the horse they are riding. However, Ben Smith has ridden Just Dottie six times and produced two wins and one place. So not only does he know her well, he also gets a great tune out of her.
She is already 3lb below her last winning mark but with Ben’s claim, she is effectively 10lb below her last winning mark, which makes her even more appealing!
As is always the case, you have to weigh up the positives, negatives and the odds when deciding on whether to have a bet.
She is a four time course winner, who I believe could relish this longer trip, especially if they go an even or sedate gallop. Ben taking off 7lb is a huge positive as well and the fact he’s won on her twice before makes it even better.
In terms of potential drawbacks, she is now winless in her last six starts over hurdles dating back to May last year. However, after her win off a mark of 105, she went up to 108, so naturally she needed time for that mark to come back down. We are also gambling on her staying the trip and there is no guarantee that she will.
Taking all this into account, though,, I feel she is worth a bet today, especially at the odds of 13/2 on offer from bet365. However, given the risk attached in terms of the step up in trip, I’m only playing half stakes on this one.
Here are a further five betting offers for horse racing that are available right now from our panel of partnered bookmakers. With all of this value on offer, I strongly recommend that you take a closer look!
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