Key Points
- Today’s betting tip was a close (and arguably unlucky) third in this race last year!
- He will enjoy the softer conditions, especially with a featherweight on board!
- This horse and jockey had a dress rehearsal last month and now they can strike!
I’m pretty excited as I write this because I feel the market has completely overlooked one at Cheltenham tomorrow! The bookies seem to have completely underestimated this horse, and his chances of winning this race! For those reasons, I’m going in with a solid each way stake on Planned Paradise. And if I’m right, it could be a very, very good Saturday for us!
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Betting advice
- 13:10 Cheltenham -
Planned Paradise
@ 22/1 (5 places) -
1pt each way
Back Planned Paradise at Betano!
At the time of writing, Planned Paradise is widely available at 22/1, with five places. One of the bookmakers offering those terms is Betano. I thought I’d highlight Betano to you, as they are new to the UK, so you are less likely to have an account already, plus they have a great sign up offer. If you deposit and
bet £10 on horse racing, you’ll get £30 of free bets and 50 free spins! A great deal for a big weekend of racing action.
Planned Paradise can give J J Murphy-Knight a first Cheltenham win!
In this Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap, J J Murphy-Knight (Johnjoe) takes the ride for Christian Williams. To date, he’s had four rides at Cheltenham. He came second on Fix It All in 2023, but he has never won. I think Planned Paradise has a great chance of running a big race today, and hopefully he can provide Johnjoe with his first Cheltenham winner! In the next few sections of this article, I’ll tell you why…
Planned Paradise was a close (and arguably unlucky) third in this race last year!
This time last year, Planned Paradise lined up for this same race. He was sent off as a 12/1 shot under Gina Andrews, and he ran remarkably well to finish third, beaten by just 2.5 lengths at the line. He raced at the rear of the field, then slowly but surely worked his way into the race. He pressed the leaders three out, but found himself a little tapped for toe as the pace lifted.
As they reached the business end, Planned Paradise was bang in there. But sadly he stumbled on landing after the last, costing him vital momentum, and ultimately, ending his chance of winning. Despite that setback, he kept on very well to finish a close third, rewarding each way backers with some lovely place money.
Planned Paradise will enjoy the softer conditions, especially with a featherweight on board!
Last year’s renewal of this race was run on Good ground and while Planned Paradise can handle it, he isn’t the fastest with those conditions. But over a trip like this, he can get away with it. This time around, he has much softer going, and he should absolutely love it. It will also help to slow down his rivals, and hopefully they will be weary when it’s time to tackle the famous Cheltenham hill.
When he ran here in 2024, Planned Paradise was rated 109 and carried a weight of 10st 3lb. This time around, he finds himself 2lb lower on a mark of 107 and he has been allocated the same weight of 10st 3lb. But with J J Murphy-Knight riding rather than Gina Andrews, Johnjoe’s 7lb claim means that Planned Paradise will carry just 9st 10lb!
Notably, Planned Paradise won a nice pot at Windsor’s Winter Millions meeting over a marathon trip of 3m 4.5f in soft conditions. That win came off the same mark of 107 as he runs off today. I have fond memories of that particular day, as I tipped him in my Discord channel, and he justified my confidence by winning at a fantastic price of 25/1! So today won’t be the first time he’s proved the market wrong…
Planned Paradise and Jonjoe had a dress rehearsal last month!
J J Murphy-Knight rode Planned Paradise to finish third at Wincanton in December of last year. That was between his run in this race and his earlier win at Windsor. It was over an inadequate trip of 2m 4f around a sharp track, so Jonjoe did well to place third.
What I find very interesting though is that his only other ride on Planned Paradise was last time out. That was a disappointing run on paper, as he finished 13th of 18, beaten by 30 lengths. However, that was his seasonal reappearance, so it is easy to forgive.
Is it just a coincidence that he ran in that race with J J Murphy-Knight riding, or was it a planned dress rehearsal ahead of his real target? I have a sneaking suspicion, especially given his trainer’s previous tactics, that it was the latter. However, coincidence or not, I think Planned Paradise will run a huge race today.
Can Planned Paradise win at a big price today?
In my opinion, Planned Paradise is grossly underestimated here at 22/1 and I’m very keen to get on him at that price. He was sent off at 12/1 last year, and was arguably an unlucky loser with the stumble on landing after the last. As touched upon already, the softer conditions this time will suit Planned Paradise much better. Likewise, carrying 7lb less than last year will also enhance his chances.
If you want to pick holes, you could say that Planned Paradise flopped on the final start of his last campaign, and did so again on his first run of this campaign. However, his run in July was after a long and tough campaign, as well as being over an inadequate trip, so it’s easy to forgive. His reappearance run was on faster-than-ideal going, and it was his first run for 110 days, so again, that race is easy to discount. Looking back at his nine runs prior, excusing that one ‘off day’ where he wasn’t travelling and was pulled up, he has been very consistent with RPRs of 115, 114, 117, 114, 115, 112, 113 and 114.
In very simple terms, and judging Planned Paradise on his RPRs alone, off a mark of 107 today, he effectively has 5lb to 10lb in hand. That will give him every chance of being competitive. Whilst you must factor in the jockey’s ability and experience, this horse arguably has somewhere between 12lb and 17lb in hand. With all of that considered, I feel Planned Paradise is a very solid each way bet today, especially at such a huge price, and I’m going 1pt each way.
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