Key Points
- Today’s betting tip won this race last year
- He returns to defend his crown off a 2lb lower mark
- Last year’s 7lb Claimer returns to the saddle
We have eight meetings across both codes on Saturday! That includes the Premier Raceday at Newbury featuring the £400,000 Group 1 Lockinge Stakes. However, it’s Day 2 of the Spring Festival at Newmarket that I’ve decided on, as I like a horse there at double figure odds.
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free horse racing tips. However, I do more than that. Take your pick from trainers and horses to follow, educational guides or big race trends, there is something for everybody to enjoy! Speaking of free tips, Saturday is a bit different, as I put together a Lucky 15 for the ITV racing action as well as a single betting tip. for you with horses featuring in the ITV Racing! This weekend, the coverage includes eight races across Newbury and Newmarket. I have two horses from each meeting and the full article will be live later this morning or if you’re reading this later, it may already be live!
Betting advice
- 15:27 Newmarket -
Rebel Path
@ 10/1 (4 places) -
0.75pt each way
At the time of writing, the
best horse racing odds
for Rebel Path stand at 10/1. All of our bookmaker partners are offering three places for this 11-runner race except bet365, who have four places which makes them the best place to bet on this one! The value doesn’t end there either, if you sign up and bet £10 you’ll get £30 of free bets. Exceptional value all round.
I cannot quite believe that Rebel Path is priced at 10/1 for this race. While I appreciate recent form must be taken into account, I think the bookmakers have this horse at too big a price, and hopefully he can make them pay for that mistake!
Rebel Path won this race last year
If you look back at last year’s race, you’ll see that Rebel Path won it. Not only did he win the race, he actually won it going away in great style. He ran off a mark of 72 that day but the performance produced a RPR of 83, suggesting he ran 9lb superior to his official mark. Even the BHA handicapper felt it deserved a 7lb raise from 72 to 79. What also impressed me about the performance is that he raced keenly, so he could have been forgiven for a tame finishing effort. However, he instead produced the best one of them all to win going away like I said.
Rebel Path also showed it was no fluke performance as he returned here a month later, albeit on the July course and finished second off his 7lb higher mark. That was a much tougher Class 3 handicap too, where he was beaten by then 91 rated Circe, who is now rated 94 and that has finished fourth in Group 3 and Listed company since. Similarly, his sole other run over this C&D on the Rowley Mile course resulted in a third off a higher mark of 75, where he was beaten less than two lengths.
Rebel Path returns to defend his crown off a 2lb lower mark
After his win in the race last year, Rebel Path is sent to repeat the feat by his trainer Stuart Williams. His seven runs since have seen him drop down from the 7lb higher mark of 79 to a 2lb lower mark of 70. Therefore, on that basis alone, he must hold every chance of following up in this race.
Many will be put off by his last five runs where he has form figures of 90577 and has only produced RPRs between 62 and 69, which would be nowhere near the level of form required to win this race. However, as touched upon, six runs back Rebel Path ran a cracker to finish second here on the July course. I then feel he’s had excuses in his last five runs.
Five runs back, he tackled soft ground, which doesn’t suit. Four runs back at Windsor, he raced alone on the far side of the track. Three runs back, he ran over a shorter trip of 5f. His latest two efforts have then come on the All Weather rather than Turf and the former of the two was his reappearance run after a 159-day break. I also feel he showed up well for a long way on his latest start, considering his SP of 40/1 suggested he wasn’t expected to be involved, the track was running on the slower side and he raced keenly.
Last year’s 7lb Claimer returns to the saddle
I also find it interesting that Olivia Haines, who rode Rebel Path to victory in this race last year, is brought back into the saddle today. She also rode him when he was second on the July course off 7lb higher, as already mentioned and her overall form figures on the horse are a very solid 514441525. If you strip the form down to just be Turf runs and only ones over 6f, the form figures read a very eye-catching 12.
Olivia was able to claim 7lb last year and thankfully she is able to claim the same amount this time around as well. Rebel Gold is only expected to carry 8st 13lb here off his reduced mark of 70 but with Olivia in the saddle today, that becomes 8st 6lb. That is a fantastic racing weight and interestingly the exact same one he carried to victory last year!
Can Rebel Path win back to back renewals?
In a nut shell, I think he can. There are certainly plenty of positives. He won the race last year, which instantly has to make him of interest, as you know he is physically capable of the feat. He also has a strong record overall at Newmarket and likewise under Olivia Haines. The fact he returns here off a 2lb higher mark only strengthens his cause too. The lower mark is due to his poor recent form but I do feel he’s had excuses. He has a lovely low racing weight of just 8st 6lb as well after the deduction of Olivia’s claim and that’s a huge help too. Finally he has landed stall 11 of 11 on the stands side rail, which could well be the place to be.
In terms of the negatives, he is seven now with 32 races under his belt, so he’s much more exposed than many of these. We do then have to take into account the recent form, which has been poor. Whilst I think he can bounce back from it, we cannot just ignore it. The final concern is that he can enjoy leading but there are other pace angles in here. Hopefully they can drop him in behind that pace and he’ll settle but he can have his own ideas sometimes.
All points factored in though, I do genuinely believe he’s overpriced at 10/1 and that he will outrun those odds. With so many positives, he has to be a solid bet but with the niggling concerns, I have reduced the stake to 0.75pt each way.
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