Key Points
- Today’s horse racing betting tip can be excused for her performance this season
- This switch to Graded company sees her on favourable terms for this race
- If this mare turns up at her best she will take an awful lot of beating here
My best betting tip for Saturday is Joyeuse. She runs in the Grade 2 Warfield Mares’ Hurdle at Ascot where I think they have the wrong horses at the top of the market. Whilst my selection is currently sat third in the market, I’d actually have her as the one that they all have to beat here. With two ahead of her in the market, I subsequently feel there is juice in her price and she’s well worth a bet today!
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Betting advice
- 13:40 Ascot -
Joyeuse
@ 9/2 -
1pt Win
bet365 bravely offers 9/2 for Joyeuse in this race!
At the time of writing this article on Friday, the vast majority of the market are offering 7/2-4/1 on Joyeuse and I think that even that underestimates her chance in this race. Therefore, I’m delighted to see that bet365 are offering an even bigger price of 9/2! This is no one off either, they regularly offer the
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Joyeuse can bounce back to her best with conditions to suit
I think Joyeuse is completely underestimated in the market at 9/2, and it's an arguably insulting price. In this article, I’ll be break down why I think she can outrun her current odds and why I think she can this Grade 2.
Bookmakers and punters more often than not have a very strong recency bias. If a horse is winning, or just in good form, they are often hyped up, and underpriced. By contrast, if a horse is not doing so well, everybody is quick to look elsewhere, and consequently, the horse can end up overpriced. I think we have a prime example of the latter with Joyeuse today.
Joyeuse absolutely destroyed a competitive field in the very valuable William Hill Hurdle at Newbury less than 12 months ago. Not only did she win by eight lengths that day, she did so going away from the field at the line. Admittedly, she was running off a mark of 123, and she was clearly plotted for the race, but even so, such was her performance that the handicapper raised her 15lb to 138. Her next race was the Grade 1 Mares' Hurdle at Cheltenham, which was just her fifth start over Hurdles, which shows how much they thought of her. I appreciate she underperformed at Fairyhouse on her final run, but that was at the end of a long season, and she also raced too keenly under a 5lb Claimer.
This season, she went Chasing and she simply didn’t taken to it. Her second run was better than her first, and she did finish second on both attempts, but she didn’t live up the level they had hoped. As a result, they abandoned that plan and the change of discipline is an obvious excuse for her. Reverting to Hurdles, she carried 11st 7lb off a mark of 140 in a very valuable Handicap, and although she might be a 140 Hurdler on her day, she’s not well handicapped of that mark, which I feel is another excuse for her.
The switch to Graded company sees Joyeuse on favourable terms for this race
The handicapper was very brutal with her 15lb rise last season, I do think she is a 140 mare over hurdles on her day. In fact, after Cheltenham she was actually rated 142! Therefore, I feel this switch to graded company is the right call as she is much better off than she would be in a handicap with many of her rivals.
On paper, Nurse Susan is the best horse in the race with a revised mark of 140 following her win. However, I do have doubts about her. I’m not sure the win last time was a true reflection of their abilities as I think with a more patient ride from Harry Cobden aboard Jubilee Alpha, the result could have been different. She was just outstayed towards the line by Nurse Susan. Given stamina won that race for her and that was over a trip further than today’s, this drop back to 1m7.5f has to be a concern and it simply looks like a stepping stone towards Cheltenham for her.
If we take her out of the race, we are left with Ooh Betty, Sunset Marquesa and La Conquiere who are rated 130, 130 and 128 respectively. Therefore, they are 8lb, 8lb and 10lb inferior to Joyeuse on official ratings. This is also after she has dropped 4lb so far this season, on her opening mark, it would have been 12lb, 12lb and 14lb. Given the conditions of the race, she only has to give away 4lb, 4lb and 2lb respectively and I’d be disappointed if she couldn’t beat these rivals on those
terms.
If Joyeuse turns up at her best she’ll take an awful lot of beating
I simply don’t believe that the William Hill Hurdle performance was just a flash in the pan, I think she is an extremely talented mare who has had a questionable campaign. The step up into Grade 1 company was a big ask in the Mares Hurdle and you cannot blame her for being below her best at Fairyhouse after the prior two runs. They have then switched her to fences which haven't worked before returning her to handicap company off a high mark.
She now has her preferred obstacles and with race conditions to suit her. Adding into the mix that I don’t fancy Nurse Susan for this race, I think there is tremendous value in Joyeuse’s price of 9/2. I appreciate you have to take the form from this season into account but if it wasn’t for that, she would be an odds on shot here. Like I said early, I just think there is a huge element of recency bias here and people are too quick to give up on horses.
If Joyeuse turns up at her best, with no obvious excuse for her to fail to do so, I think she beats these rivals.
Can Joyeuse show her true ability and bounce back?
As you will be used to me saying by now, you have to assess the positives, the negatives and the price when deciding on a bet.
For me, the positives are very strong. I believe she has the best piece of form in the book with her William Hill Hurdle win. I also believe she has had excuses for her apparent bad form this season. She is favourably treated with all bar one of her rivals here and I don’t fancy the chances of the one that she is on unfavourable terms with as I feel that she wants a longer trip and it is questionable as to whether she will be trying here with Cheltenham in mind.
In terms of the negatives, there is obviously her form this season but like I said, I feel she has excuses for that. Other than that, I’m struggling to find much in the way of negatives. You could argue that her best performance came under Nico de Boinville who is at Haydock instead but James Bowen has won on her before and many would argue he’s superior in the saddle…
Ultimately the odds determine whether it’s a good bet or not and I’m extremely happy with the odds on offer. I genuinely believe that if she came straight here for her first of the season, she would be odds on and instead because of her three runs to date this season, she is only third in the market at 9/2. I think there is every chance she makes a mockery of that price and she is well worth a full 1pt bet here.
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