Key Points
- Today’s betting tip is underestimated with a 3lb rise
- This horse should relish the step up in trip to 3m
- His trainers are in fantastic form and this is their home turf
We’re back at Ayr for the second day of their feature meeting, which is also Scottish Grand National day. Lucinda Russell & Michael Scudamore had a cracking first day, with Knomorediamonds winning the Coral Handicap Hurdle, Tuppence obliging in the Slater Handicap Hurdle, and three more of their runners finishing in second or third. With another 11 runners due to line up today, I think they will have plenty more success, and the one I particularly fancy runs in the Novices' Champion Handicap Chase at 13:45.
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You might also want to check out my selection for the
Scottish Champion Hurdle, which was published a couple of weeks back. As this horse was originally an antepost pick, the price of 10/1 is no longer available, but the logic remains. That said, I’m a little concerned about how testing the ground is after yesterday’s downpour, but hopefully he will handle it, and with a better forecast today, the ground might even dry out a bit.
Betting advice
- 13:45 Ayr -
Big John Wayne
@ 8/1 (4 places) -
1pt each way
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He’s no Hollywood star but he brings star quality to Ayr!
Big John Wayne will be showcasing his talent in Scotland rather than Hollywood, but he’s a rising star, and one to have on your side. He comes here off the back of a win, and I think he has plenty more improvement to come. In this article, I’ll break down why I’m sweet on his chances, so make sure you keep reading.
Big John Wayne is underestimated with a 3lb rise in the handicap
On his latest start at Hexham, Big John Wayne won comfortably, despite the vet reporting that he had bled from the nose. His win came off a mark of 116 and he was awarded a RPR of 124, suggesting that he ran 8lb better than his mark. While clearly impressive in terms of his RPR, the official handicapper only raised him 3lb from 116 to a mark of 119, and I feel that underestimates him.
Although he is eight years old now, he has only had six starts under Rules, with just three over fences, so he remains lightly-raced and unexposed. I believe he is a horse that could easily rate a good deal higher than his current mark of 119, and hopefully he will take this race in his stride before going onto bigger and better things.
Big John Wayne should relish the step up in trip to 3m
I have been waiting for Big John Wayne to tackle three miles over fences, and today, he finally does. As a 3m Point-to-Point winner, sired by Shantou, I always thought he was a three-mile Chaser in the making.
His final start over Hurdles was over 2m 7f, where he showed that he has plenty of stamina. However, his first two starts over fences came over intermediate trips while he learned the ropes and gave him valuable experience. After his second chase start, I was hoping connections would switch him to three miles. However, they decided to give him one more run over an intermediate distance, this time at Hexham, which on Soft going, takes plenty of getting. However, it served its purpose and clearly brought out more improvement as he got his head in front.
That Hexham win was the perfect stepping stone to this race, and I think a 3lb rise underestimated his performance. The step up in trip today should unlock more improvement, and he has enough in hand to be very competitive again. In fact, I believe he has enough to win this valuable race.
Lucinda Russell and Michael Scudamore were struggling to find form at the start of the year, but they seemed to have turned a corner in the last couple of months. Which is perfect timing for this prestigious meeting, especially as it’s on their home turf. As mentioned, they had an excellent Day 1, and I’m sure they are keen to perform just as well, if not better, on Day 2.
In fact, they couldn’t have asked for a much better opening day. They recorded 18/1 and 25/1 winners, plus a second, and two thirds, so their horses are certainly firing on all cylinders. Looking at the 11 runners they have lined up for today, I can see them enjoying the same level of success as yesterday, perhaps even better. Hopefully one of their successes will be Big John Wayne!
Judging on the visuals and times from the opening day, the ground looks pretty testing, despite it being officially rated as Soft, Good to Soft in places. There isn’t much rain forecast today, and there is also a fair bit of wind, so the ground may well dry out. It will still be a good test for the horses, but the softer the better for Big John Wayne!
Can Big John Wayne win this shoot out?
I really like the look of Big John Wayne in this race, and he certainly has plenty going for him here. Given the superiority he showed at Hexham last time, I think the small 3lb rise underestimates his ability. In addition, he finally runs over the three miles he looks to have been crying out for, which is likely to bring even more improvement. Combining that with how well his yard has performed at this meeting so far, I believe he will outperform his mark of 119 here.
In terms of the negatives, the ground will most likely dry out to a degree, given the forecast and windy conditions. If it dries up too much, that could be a worry, especially if it turns into the dead/tacky going which nobody seems to enjoy. This is also a much tougher race than his last one at Hexham, so he does need to step up and prove himself. That said, he carries just 10st 7lb here, which is a lovely racing weight, and much more lenient than the 11st 13lb he carried last time out.
Provided sufficient juice remains in the ground for him to perform at his best, Big John Wayne is a fantastic each way bet at 8/1. I believe he will improve even more for the step up to three miles, and this race has likely been a long-term target for connections. I’ll be very disappointed if he fails to finish in the first four, but if he is the horse I hope he is, and the ground remains similar to Day 1, I think he could take some beating. In any event, at his current price of 8/1, and with four places on offer, he’s well worth a 1pt each way bet.
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