Key Points
- Today’s horse racing betting tip is far better than his rating of 110
- This trainer’s horses seem to be improving plenty on their second starts
- I believe my selection today has excuses for his last run
For Saturday’s primary horse racing betting tip I have tackled the Novices’ Handicap Hurdle at Ascot, where nine runners are set to line up. I think my selection today is handicapped to win, and thanks to his latest run, for which he has excuses, he is a fantastic price today!
If you’re just reading an article of mine for the first time, I’m Gav, better known as RacingGav on X/Twitter. I’m the resident horse racing expert here and I publish several articles each week for this site. These are predominantly
free horse racing tips, whether that be on the day (like this one) or antepost. I also produce other types of articles such as big race trends, educational guides and more.
Every Saturday, I write two articles. I have my usual daily betting tip (this one) but I also put together
a Lucky 15 for the ITV Racing action at Ascot
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Betting advice
- 13:15 Ascot -
Jakar Du Moulin
@ 7/1 (3 places) -
1pt each way
William Hill has the best odds for Jakar Du Moulin
At the time of writing this article, William Hill are offering the
best horse racing odds
for today’s bet. While the rest of the market are offering 6/1 or 13/2, William Hill are sticking their neck out with 7/1 and that’s well worth taking. If that wasn’t enough, they also have a fantastic new customer sign up offer. If you bet £10, you’ll get £40 of free bets. That really is a superb offer.
Jakar Du Moulin should prove to be a better horse than his current 110 rating!
Jakar Du Moulin was initially purchased for €105,000 in June 2022, by Monbeg Stables. Nearly two years later, he won a Belhabour (Ireland) Point-to-Point and was subsequently sold again for £175,000. He will definitely be a Chaser in time, and we will most likely see the most improvement in that discipline, but he should be more than capable of winning over Hurdles in the interim. Let me tell you more…
Jakar Du Moulin has excuses for his latest run
Generally speaking, most of Paul Nicholls’ horses have needed their first runs this season, so I’m treating all of his runners with a great deal of caution first time out. Likewise, I’m prepared to forgive most of them. Jakar Du Moulin certainly looks like another one this applies to. He travelled powerfully during his first run of the season at Exeter, but found little at the business end. Nonetheless, he shaped like he would improve for the run.
It’s also noteworthy that Jay Tidball came off Jakar Du Moulin on his way down to the start at Exeter, which is far from ideal for either the horse or jockey. Paul Nicholls has since publicly commented that he’s not sure that Jay was quite 100% after that. Jay saw the doctor down at the start, and was passed fit to ride, but Paul has also said that Jay took quite a few days to get over that fall, so he’s not convinced he was at his best. That gives Jakar Du Moulin another excuse for his somewhat lackadaisical run.
Paul Nicholls’ horses seem to be improving plenty on their second starts
Paul Nicholls has undeniably had a few first time winners, like No Drama This End, Rubaud and Hitman. However, many of his runners have underperformed on their first appearance, before winning at the second time of asking. Blueking d’Oroux, Tutti Quanti, Regent’s Stroll, Isaac Des Obeaux, and Welcom to Cartries are just a few examples.
I think Jakar Du Moulin is better than his mark and shaped like he was in need of a run. For that reason, I think he can follow in the footsteps of the aforementioned horses, and will look a different horse on his second start. When you also factor in that he had a wind operation during his summer break, it further convinces me that now is the time to catch him. It is well known that horses tend to perform best on their second start after wind surgery, rather than on their first. This is largely because a horse needs that first run to realise its breathing problem has been fixed, and is more inclined to give it all the next time.
I believe Jakar Du Moulin has the potential to be far better than his rating of 110
Jakar Du Moulin is a half-brother to five-time French winner, Utopia Dream, who was a Listed winner over fences for Francois Nicolle. In addition, his dam is half-sister to the nine-time winner, Newman Des Plages, and four-time winner, Hellos Des Plages. All that before even mentioning his sire, Kapgarde, who has produced many top National Hunt talents, including A Plus Tard, Clan Des Obeaux, Fakir d’Oudairies, Brighterdaysahead, Garde Le Victoire, and Kandoo Kid.
As you can see, there are plenty of winners in Jakar Du Moulin’s pedigree, and he was bred to be far better than his current rating of 110. While that is no guarantee, it is often a very strong indicator, and I’m expecting him to win off his current mark, even in this discipline. I’m sure Paul Nicholls, Harry Cobden, Tom Malone, and Colm Donlon will share that view too. Ultimately, anything Jakar Du Moulin does over Hurdles will likely be a bonus, ready for when he inevitably goes Chasing, but I’d view a win off this mark as more of an expectation personally.
Can Jakar Du Moulin land his first win under Rules?
Between needing his first run, and the drama in the preliminaries, Jakar Du Moulin has every right to improve significantly here. I don’t think it would take much at all to see him winning this race off a mark of 110 and I would be very disappointed if he wasn’t at least hitting the frame. Many of Paul’s have improved drastically following their first run and I think Jakar Du Moulin could be the same. He’s certainly bred to be much better, and as a lightly raced six-year-old, he could have a lot more to come.
On the negative side, he’s had four chances over Hurdles, and is yet to win. There is also no guarantee that he will improve from the first run of this campaign and he could just have limited ability. However, I don’t think that’s the case. With what I believe to be a very generous price of 7/1 today, I think Jakar Du Moulin is superb value, and I’d personally have him much nearer the top of the market. I feel he is worth a full 1pt each way bet here, and I was tempted to have even more on, but he needs to prove that he is the horse I think he is, so I’m going to keep the stakes sensible until he does.
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