Key Points
- Today’s betting tip was caught out by the 3m 2f trip and soft ground last time
- Similar tactics to last time could pay off here with better ground and a shorter trip
- Second time out after wind surgery is often the best time to back horses
Saturday is here and we have some superb racing action taking place today! We have jump racing action from Newbury, Kelso, Bangor-On-Dee and Navan. We then have Flat racing action over on the All Weather at both Southwell and Newcastle. My main betting tip for the day comes from Newbury and it is in the final race of the day there. After two efforts where he has had excuses, I think this horse can bounce back to form and run a huge race here!
If this is your first time reading an article of mine, let me introduce myself! I’m Gav, better known as RacingGav on X/Twitter where I have amassed a following of nearly 16,000 to date. I’m the resident horse racing expert here and I publish several articles each week for this site. These are predominantly
free horse racing tips, either for the same day, or antepost. I also produce other types of articles such as big race trends, educational guides and much more.
Every Saturday, I write two different articles. I have my main betting tip (this one) and I also put together
a Lucky 15 bet for the ITV Racing
action, which is more for fun to spice things up! This week’s Lucky 15 has selections from Newbury, Kelso and Bangor-On-Dee and it’s live now, so be sure to check that one out too.
Betting advice
- 16:45 Newbury -
Some Scope
@ 6/1 (3 places) -
0.5pt each way
Back Some Scope with Betano
As I write this article, the
best horse racing odds
for Some Scope stand at 6/1 with Betano. As well as great value odds, Betano has a great sign up deal too. If you bet £10, you’ll get a £30 free bet, which means great value all round.
This horse has SOME SCOPE off a mark of 121!
If this horse performs as strongly as my word play there, we’ll be just fine! I think he will and in this article, I’ll explain why.
Some Scope was caught out by the 3m 2f trip and soft ground last time
Some Scope was a winner at Doncaster over the festive period, where he made all in a 3m race on Good ground. That win came off a mark of 119, with Charlie Maggs claiming a further five pounds. He was wearing a first time visor, which seemed to help him, so he travelled and jumped superbly.
He had excuses for his next start at the Cheltenham Festival. Firstly, he went up in trip to 3m 5.5f and it was also around the Cross Country track, which was completely new to him. Also, the visor which had clearly worked well the time before, was left off. Furthermore, he lost a shoe, and the vet reported he had a small overreach on his left fore leg after the race. He was subsequently given wind surgery, suggesting he had suffered an issue and/or made a noise during the race. As a result of all of the aforementioned points, I’d draw a line straight through that race.
He went back to Doncaster last time out, but the 3m 2f trip stretched him, and the rain made the ground unsuitably soft. With the visor back on, he was given an aggressive ride by Charlie Maggs. However, in those conditions, he was struggling as the race progressed and Jasmin De Grugy beat him by an impressive 33 lengths. Despite the margin of defeat, Some Scope impressed me with how he kept going and held on for second place.
Similar tactics to last time could pay off here with better ground and a shorter trip
Back over 2m 7.5f, with Good to Soft going, and the visor retained, I think adopting the same aggressive tactics could work here. Especially as there doesn’t seem to be another obvious pace angle in the race. With a dry forecast, it may well end up more like Good ground by the time this final race comes around, and the better the ground, the better his chance in my eyes.
After his easy win at Doncaster three runs back, his handicap mark was raised from 119 to 123, but after his lesser efforts the last twice, his mark has dropped to 121, which is just 2lb above his last winning mark. Given that and the fact he won the 2024 Rowland Meyrick Chase off a 3lb higher mark of 124, I think this handicap mark is well within his scope.
Second time out after wind surgery is often the best time to back horses
As a general rule, the second time after wind surgery is usually the time to catch horses at their best. There are several theories as to why this is, the most popular being that the first run enables the horse to see that they can breath with no issues, and until they find they can, they hold a bit back. By their second race after wind surgery, they typically give you their all.
In addition, I believe that fitness plays a part as well. Post-surgery a horse is unable to do his usual work, leaving him short of peak fitness. Logic suggests that the horse will improve after that first run back.
What I also find interesting is that Some Scope is usually partnered by Conditional jockey Charlie Maggs, but he appears to be in Bangor-On-Dee today, riding for Christian Williams and Donald McCain. In his absence, James Bowen has been brought in to take the ride, which is a big bonus. James Bowen is a great jockey who has recorded five winners in the last fortnight, and 91 for the season, which include his two wins at the Cheltenham Festival last week.
Can Some Scope bounce back to winning ways?
There are plenty of positives for Some Scope’s chances today. He has had excuses the last two times, so those runs are easy to forgive. Adopting similar aggressive tactics to his latest run could work wonders here. He should certainly be much happier over this trip and with the drying ground conditions and the more it dries, the stronger his chance will be.
Second time out after wind surgery is often the time to catch them, and hopefully that will be the case today. Some Scope is 2lb above his last winning mark, which is nothing, considering that he won off 3lb higher in December 2024. Finally I really like the booking of James Bowen here. In terms of the negatives, he is a horse that can blow hot and cold, so he’s not one you can always rely on. I also wonder how hard that last race was for him, it looked exceptionally gruelling and I would just worry it could see him underperform today.
That said, I think 6/1 is a great price and he’s well worth a bet at those odds. I’m hoping James Bowen adopts aggressive tactics on him. If he gets into a rhythm out in front, I think the rest would struggle to reel him in. But even if they do, I’m hopeful he’ll keep battling on like last time, and at least run into the places for us today.
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