Key Points
- Today’s betting tip already has C&D form
- This horse ran an excellent race last time out
- Stable jockey Daniel Tudhope takes the ride
It’s going to be a busy Saturday, and there's some fantastic racing action ahead. With the highlights being the Group 2 Greenlands Stakes, and the Group 1 Irish 2,000 Guineas at the Curragh, and the Group 2 Temple Stakes at Haydock. There are also some top-class Handicaps, and today’s betting tip lines up for one of them: the Class 2 5f Handicap ( 0-105) at York. I think this horse is completely underestimated at 14/1 and I’ll be shocked if he goes off that price, so I see him shortening significantly ahead of the race.
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which include two articles every Saturday! This one is my main betting tip, and I also produce a Lucky 15 based on the ITV racing action. This weekend's Lucky 15 picks run at Haydock (x3) and York. The Lucky 15 article will be going live tomorrow morning, so keep your eyes peeled!
Betting advice
- 14:40 York -
Toca Madera
@ 14/1 (5 places) -
1pt each way
Betfred has the best odds for Toca Madera
At the time of writing, the
best horse racing odds
of 14/1 for Toca Madera are available at Betfred. If you don’t already have an account there, then it’s worth considering. If you sign up and
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Things look very promising for Toca Madera - Touch wood!
Translated to English, Toca Madera means ‘knock on wood’ in the superstitious sense, although we tend to use ‘touch wood’ to avoid bad things happening. With plenty in his favour today, hopefully Toca Madera won’t need divine intervention, he'll just run a huge race on merit alone!
Toca Madera started his career with Brian Meehan, where he won a Novice Stakes at Bath at the second time of asking. During his second campaign he placed in a valuable Handicap at Windsor, before landing another one at Windsor off a mark of 94, and producing a RPR of 104. But the piece of form that really catches my eye is his C&D performance in a similar Class 2 Handicap around this time last year.
He ducked left at the start, and he didn’t have a clear run over the final 2f, but despite that he made headway, and went third inside the final furlong, keeping on through the line. He was beaten less than two lengths that day, which reads very well in hindsight. American Affair won that race off a mark of 98, and he is now a 113-rated Group 1 winner. JM Jungle was second off a mark of 93 and he’s now a 110-rated Group 2 winner. The horse placed fourth, Shagraan, ran off 101, and he is now a 108-rated Listed winner.
As you can see, Toca Madera's form over C&D is red hot! The strength of the form goes even deeper into the race as well. Overall 12 wins from nine different horses have been recorded since that race.
Toca Madera ran an excellent race last time out
In April 2026, Toca Madera was purchased by L Bond & Sheikh Aymen Jawad Al Hamandi, who moved him from Brian Meehan to David O’Meara, where he started out with a mark of 89. That mark looked exploitable, and it was no surprise to see him attract market support on his stable debut, where he was sent off at just 4/1. Although he ran well for a long way, he weakened towards the finish, looking like he needed the run.
Dropped another 2lb to a mark of 87 he caught my attention earlier this month. However, races at York are often subject to a strong draw bias, which favours those drawn low. As a result, I was put off by his draw in stall 20, and I wasn’t alone, as he was sent off 33/1. Considering the draw, I think he ran an exceptional race to finish sixth of 21 there. I know some will argue that the winner was also drawn high, but to be fair, he came across as a Group horse in a Handicap that day.
Toca Madera was awarded a RPR of 72 for that run, which is pretty baffling to me. I think the bare result alone warrants more, and it could even be marked up further due to his draw, considering all of the field, bar the impressive winner, raced on the other (more favourable) side of the track. For me, that was a run full of promise, especially considering Toca Madera was sent off at a very unfancied 33/1.
Daniel Tudhope takes the ride on Toca Madera
Following a dress rehearsal, Toca Madera returns to 5f at York again. But this time he has landed a lovely low draw in stall four, which is a perfect place to be on this track. Furthermore, the jockey booked is especially notable. Mark Winn rode Toca Madera for Dave O'Meara the last twice, but this time Daniel Tudhope takes the ride. Considering that this horse has a massive chance based on his form, his handicap mark, and his draw, he now gets top jockey Daniel Tudhope in the saddle. The plot thickens further, as Daniel rode Ziggy’s Triton
against
Toca Madera in April, and despite that one reopposing, he takes the ride on Toca Madera.
We know that Toca Madera is capable of running to a mark in the high 90s, or early 100s judged on his RPRs. That surely makes him incredibly well handicapped off a mark of 84, especially with so much in his favour for this race. In my opinion, he won’t get a better opportunity to land a valuable Handicap than this one. For me, it’s very much now or never time, and he has no excuses coming into this race.
Can Toca Madera land his first win for his new stable?
There is an abundance of positives for Toca Madera today. He has strong form in the book and those performances would be more than sufficient to win this race off his current mark of 84. While he was dropped 2lb by the handicapper, and given a harsh RPR of 72 for his latest performance, I think there was far more promise in it than they have given him credit for. With a much kinder draw this time, and Daniel Tudhope taking over, I think we'll see a completely different horse today.
In terms of negatives, he is without a win since August 2024, but he placed three times in Handicaps this time last year, so it’s not like he’s been running badly for long. Other than that, I’m struggling to find much wrong!
When you take account of everything, Toca Madera is highly underestimated at 14/1. Personally, I wouldn’t even want to lay him at half that price with so much in his favour. Given how highly I rate his chances, and the value I see in his price, I’m having a strong 1pt each way bet. I was tempted to go higher, but it doesn’t take much to go wrong in a 5f Handicap, so I’m keeping it sensible. I believe he has a huge chance here on merit alone, but let's touch wood anyway!
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