Key Points
- Today’s betting tip is handicapped to run a huge race here
- His latest run looked poor, but was deceiving and can be marked up
- His trainer has won this race three times including two of the last ten renewals
It’s been a very successful week for my free tips, with Pallas Lord winning at 11/1, Planned Paradise landing a big bet at 5/1 and Wyld Bill placing at 15/2 SP yesterday. I’m hoping to continue this great run of form today and hopefully we can do just that! This Saturday I have tackled the Grimthrope Handicap Chase at Doncaster and I think I’ve found a great bet at a double figure price!
If you’re just reading an article of mine for the first time, I’m Gav, better known as RacingGav on X/Twitter. I’m the resident horse racing expert here and I publish several articles each week for this site. These are predominantly
free horse racing tips, either daily or antepost. I also produce other types of articles such as big race trends, educational guides and more.
Every Saturday, I write two different articles. My main betting tip (this one) and I also put together a Lucky 15 bet for the ITV Racing action, which is more for fun!
This week’s Lucky 15
has selections from Kelso, Newbury and Doncaster and it will be live shortly after this one. Make sure you keep an eye out for that!
Betting advice
- 14:30 Doncaster -
Destroytheevidence
@ 14/1 (4 places) -
1pt each way
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Destroytheevidence can give this field weight and a beating!
Destroytheevidence has to carry a big weight here in the Grimthorpe but I think he’s up to it! This looks like the ideal race for him with a suitable track, trip and ground, so hopefully he can put his best foot forward to capitalise on it.
Destroytheevidence is handicapped to run a huge race here
This horse really should have won more than one chase in his career to date but hopefully he can make amends for that here. Ironically his one victory over fences came at the expense of Haiti Couleurs. Haiti Couleurs has won seven of nine starts since including a Cheltenham Festival victory, the Irish and Welsh Grand Nationals and most recently the Grade 2 Denman Chase. As a result, Haiti Couleurs is priced as short as 7/1 for the 2026 Cheltenham Gold Cup, so it’s safe to say that form worked out well!
At a glance, a record of 1/9 over fences could be off-putting. However, he has only finished out of the first three over fences on two occasions and he has twice been just a neck away from further victories. His aforementioned win came off 130, his neck defeats have come off 136 and all of his other placed form has come off marks of 134/135. Therefore, we know he has every right to be extremely competitive off this mark of 134.
Destroytheevidence looked poor last time but the run was deceiving
His third place finish last time looks solid, but 21 lengths behind the winner is rather underwhelming. But don't be deceived, that performance can be marked up. If you watch the race, Destroytheevidence made the winner work most of the way up the home straight with the pair pulling the clear. The eventual winner took control between the final two fences as Destroytheevidence got tired in the Heavy ground.
It was a very tired leap at the last by Destroytheevidence, who nearly unseated Tom Bellamy as he pecked on landing. He lost all momentum there, and while he was unable to challenge the winner, he deserved to finish closer and he certainly didn’t deserve to lose second place at the line.
Kim Bailey has won this race three times including two of the last ten renewals
Kim Bailey (now Kim Bailey & Mat Nicholls) has won this race three times. The first of which was all the way back in 1994 with Shraden Leader. However, he has also won two of the last ten renewals of the race with The Last Samuri in 2016 and Does He Know in 2024. It’s clear Kim Bailey knows exactly what it takes to win this race.
Interestingly the yard has only contested four of the last ten renewals, with The Last Samuri finishing second in 2017 and Rocky’s Treasure finishing fifth when sent off 2/1 favourite for the 2019 renewal. So they actually have a 50% strike rate in the race over the last ten years, rather than the 20% the statistic initially suggests.
What I also find interesting is that from 2009 onwards, only two horses have carried more than 11st to victory, with the winners typically carrying low weights. However, the two that buck that trend were Kim’s two winners. The Last Samuri carried 11st 12lb and Does He Know carried 12st. Therefore, whilst the trends would suggest you want a low weight and that would go against Destroytheevidence who carries 11st 11lb, Kim has had great success with classy horses carrying big weights in this race and hopefully he can buck the trend once more!
Can Destroytheevidence provide his stable with a fourth Grimthorpe win?
Destroytheevidence is handicapped to run a huge race here. His latest run was better than the losing distance suggests and it can be marked up. The stable have a strong record in this race and that bodes well for Destroytheevidence, particularly with regards to him shouldering a big weight. I think he is a horse who wants 3m+ around a flat but galloping track and ground around Good to Soft/Soft rather than the extremes and all of those boxes get ticked here.
In terms of negatives, he did have a hard race in Heavy ground last time out, so we are relying on him being over that. However, he has been given plenty of time to recover. He does have a big weight to carry here with 11st 11lb but as we have seen, this stable has overcome that challenge with their two winners in the last ten years of the race. Finally, his record of one win from nine chases is underwhelming but he’s only been out of the first three twice.
All facts considered, especially the 14/1 price with four places, I think The Last Samuri is a fantastic bet. He needs to defy a big weight, but this stable knows it can be done and I expect him to run a huge race here. At the price, I think he is well worth a solid 1pt each way bet.
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