Key Points
- My betting tip was fifth in this race last year and he’s back to win this time
- With an apprentice claiming 5lb, he’ll carry a whole stone less today
- The strength of his C&D form across multiple runs must be greatly respected
My main betting tip for Saturday comes in the feature race at Doncaster, the William Hill Lincoln. A full field of 22 will go to post in this ÂŁ150,000 Heritage Handicap which pays over ÂŁ77,000 to the winner. I like the chances of one who is handicapped to strike, and hopefully he can win for us.
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Betting advice
- 15:32 Doncaster - The William Hill Lincoln -
Galeron
@ 14/1 (6 places) -
0.75pt each way
bet365 has the best odds and place terms!
If you’re planning to back Galeron today, then bet365 is literally your best bet. First and foremost, they are offering the
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Galeron is proven over this C&D
For this year's Lincoln, I’m siding with a horse who has proven C&D form, and it's Galeron for Charles Hills. I think he is underestimated and overpriced at 14/1, especially with six places on offer.
Galeron was fifth in this race last year and now he comes back for more!
Galeron carried 9st 12lb in last year’s Lincoln. He had a mark of 102 at the time, which meant he was the highest-rated runner in the lineup. He gave weight away all round, with the exception of Sean, who also carried top weight. Galeron didn't get a clear run by any means, and finished in fifth, beaten by just two lengths, but he was clearly staying on at the finish.
The Lincoln was Galeron’s first run last year, and it was a strong one, so it was surprising to see him go 0/9 during his entire campaign. Although he ran some big races in defeat, none of his subsequent runs were as strong as that first run. However, that means his mark has fallen from 102 to just 95, after touching as low as 93, leaving him at 7lb below his last winning mark. That should be enough for him to go very close here.
With an apprentice claiming 5lb, Galeron will carry a stone less this time!
Last season, Galeron had five different professional jockeys in the saddle: Jason Watson, Colin Keane, Mickael Barzalona, Robert Havlin and Marco Ghiani. But Charlie Hills has switched it up this time by booking apprentice jockey Jack Callan. On a handicap mark of 95, Galeron is already 7lb lower than last year, and with Jack Callan's 5lb claim, he will effectively race off a mark of 90, which gives an even bigger advantage.
To give this some context, Galeron carried 9st 12lb in last year’s renewal, but between his falling mark, Jack’s claim, and the top weight being rated 104 this year, Galeron will carry just 8st 12lb, which is a full stone. If he turns up in the same form, carrying much less weight, he really should go very close this time.
Sometimes a horse will run a big race in defeat but then fail to replicate it for whatever reason. However, Galeron has run over this C&D three times in total, which proves that his run in last year’s renewal was no fluke performance that flattered him.
On Good ground in September last year, Galeron was third at Doncaster off a mark of 94 and he was only beaten three lengths that day. Similar comments apply to his final run of last season where he ran an absolute cracker to only be beaten less than a length at the line off a mark of 93. It is well worth noting that he was denied a clear run over 2f out that day as well.
In three attempts at the C&D for Galeron, he has produced form figures of 532 and therefore he is robustly tried and tested. Returning to this C&D and off this dangerous revised mark, he must have every chance of winning one of these C&D handicaps this season and with £150,000 up for grabs, you can see why they’ve come for this big one.
Will things go according to plan for Galeron?
Charlie Hills has been quoted as saying
“this has been the plan for a while”
when discussing Galeron and the Lincoln. Charlie feels that he has improved in his training over the past few months, and now it’s time for him to prove it. He has the course form, he has the attractive handicap mark, and he has a 5lb claimer on board, so he must have a great chance here!
In terms of the negatives, he went 0/9 last season. In fact, he is winless since September 2022. Ironically, that win came in the extremely valuable Goffs Million race for two-year-olds at the Curragh, where he won an incredible €611,000. On the plus side, he went close in multiple races last season, so we know the ability remains.
The key is the fact that we have a lovely price of 14/1 and six places on offer. You would be very disappointed if Galeron couldn’t at least match last season’s fifth off this lower mark, which would see him running into the frame and securing the place money for us. But given he is rated 7lb lower now and carries a whole stone less, I believe he can produce a stronger performance than last year.
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