Key Points
- Today’s horse racing betting tip ran a superb race over C&D last time out
- He needs a strong pace to aim at and he should get that at Sandown
- With some juice in the ground I think his jumping will be stronger
For Saturday’s main horse racing betting tip, we head to the £50,000 1m 7.5f Handicap Chase at Sandown, where 11 runners are expected to go to post. My selection is handicapped to win today. He has conditions to suit, and the same headgear retained from last time, so I think he can do exactly that!
If you’re just reading one of my articles for the first time, I’m Gav, better known as RacingGav on X/Twitter. I’m the resident horse racing expert here and I publish several articles each week for this site. These are predominantly
free horse racing tips, either daily or antepost. I also produce other types of articles such as big race trends, educational guides and more.
Every Saturday, I post my main betting tip (this one) and I also put together a Lucky 15 bet for the ITV Racing action!
This week’s Lucky 15
has selections from Musselburgh, Leopardstown and Sandown and it’s already live, so make sure you take a look.
Betting advice
- 14:02 Sandown -
Kotmask
@ 6/1 (4 places) -
2pt each way
bet365 has the best odds and place terms for Kotmask!
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Kotmask’s latest run suggested a return to winning ways
After three consecutive fifth place finishes, Kotmask produced his best run of the season when he came second over C&D earlier this month. That was a mighty run and that showed me that he is handicapped to strike again, just bumping into a very progressive rival. But I think he can go one better today, so read on to find out why!
Kotmask ran a superb race over C&D last time out
After runs at Fontwell, Ascot and Newbury, the Gary & Josh Moore team sent Kotmask over C&D (1m 7.5f at Sandown). The race looked a tough one with progressive rivals Vanderpoel and Keep Running filling the favourite and second favourite spots. However between that pair and Siam Park, I expected a strong pace, which I thought would suit Kotmask. If anything, the combination of the track and the quicker ground caught Kotmask a little flat-footed and he didn’t produce his best jumping. Despite that, he ran a huge race, just beaten by Vanderpoel, who is a horse that looks to be going places.
Vanderpoel received a 7lb rise for that win, which could have been worse as his RPR that day rated him 11lb superior to his mark. However, despite Kotmask following him home with an RPR 8lb superior to his mark, the handicapper left his mark unaltered at 129. That seems extremely generous and he should be able to capitalise on that leniency. Kotmask’s latest win came at Ascot just over a year ago, off a 1lb higher mark of 130, so we know he's capable of winning off this mark.
Kotmask needs a strong pace to aim at and he should get that here
Kotmask has won over a variety of trips ranging from 1m 7.5f to 2m 3.5f, so he has versatility in terms of distance. His 1m 7.5f win was here at Sandown, so he is a C&D winner too. As he stays further, he needs a strong pace to aim at to be seen at his best.
Escapeandevade, Classic Maestro, and Hypotenus are all front runners, with Gunsight Ridge and Jax Junior likely to be close behind. Even Haddex Des Obeaux has been known to run in the front occasionally, so there should be plenty of pace which will set up perfectly for a closer like Kotmask. The going is Soft, Heavy in places at the time of writing, which should add to the stamina requirement. While some of these will be struggling to get up the stiff Sandown hill at the end of this race, Kotmask should be devouring it, especially with just 10st 12lb on his back!
With some juice in the ground I think his jumping will be stronger
Last time out over C&D, but on faster ground, Kotmask was a little out of his comfort zone speedwise. As a result, he met some of his fences on the wrong stride, and he certainly didn’t put in his most fluent round of jumping. Whilst I expect this race to be run at a strong gallop too, it shouldn’t be quite such a blistering early pace as last time, which should help Kotmask in the jumping department.
If he can get into a good rhythm early on, I think he has an outstanding chance of winning today, and I do wonder if that last race was just a dress rehearsal for today. This is a £50,000 Handicap with over £26,000 to the winner, so I imagine this has been circled on Gary & Josh Moore’s calendar for Kotmask. The ground should help his jumping, and his spin round here earlier in the month should have sharpened him up too.
Can Kotmask reel them in to record a seventh success?
I think the case for Kotmask today is a rock solid one. He produced a superb performance over C&D last time where he wore first time blinkers, which are retained. His unaltered mark of 129 looks favourable as he has already won off a 1lb higher mark in the past. Over this trip, he needs a strong pace to aim at, and juice in the ground, which he gets here today. I also find it interesting that his yard are operating at a 43% strike rate this season, recording six winners from 14 runners, with further four finishing in second, third or fourth. Hopefully Kotmask can enhance that phenomenal record for them!
In terms of the negatives, his jumping can let him down at times, and all bar one of his wins have been in fields of less than seven runners. However, neither of those concerns would weigh heavily on me. Other than those two points, I don’t feel there is a great deal in the way of negatives for him.
I’m not surprised that the 7/1 available when the markets opened, quickly went as short as 9/2. The majority of bookies sit around the 5/1 mark, so bet365 is offering fantastic value at 6/1 with four places. I don’t think Kotmask would look out of place at the top of this market, considering that only 12 months ago he was sent off as 4/1 joint favourite for a £100,000 Handicap Chase at Ascot. With so many boxes ticked, 6/1 on offer and four places being paid, I think he warrants a 2pt each way bet today. Hopefully he will finish January off with a bang for us!
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