Key Points
- Today’s betting tip was fifth in this race last year
- This horse should relish the cut in the ground
- He has landed a lovely high draw which is perfect!
We’ve had two so far this week for my
free horse racing tips. First we had Dandy’s Angel who placed at 20/1 SP at Hamilton and then Alpha Crucis placed at 10/1 here. Today we are back at Epsom as I look to make it a hat-trick of successful bets on Derby day, and this horse is my strongest selection this week.
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Betting advice
- 15:15 Epsom -
Vintage Clarets
@ 16/1 (5 places) -
1pt each way
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He went close last year, he can win this year!
As I’ll explain, Vintage Clarets was fifth in this race last year, beaten by just three lengths at the line. He had a few factors against him that day, but things are different this year and I think he can come out on top this time.
Vintage Clarets was fifth in this race last year off an 11lb higher mark
Vintage Clarets has recorded ten wins during his career to date. Interestingly, his eight victories in Handicap company have been off higher marks than his current one. At present he is rated 83, but his Handicap wins have come off marks of 84, 87, 91, 94, 88, 93, and 94.
His latest win was the Shergar Cup Dash over 5f at Ascot last August. I think he’s at his best with some cut in the ground, so he really impressed me by winning that race on Good to Firm going that day. Off the same mark of 94 that he won off at Ascot, he was fifth in this race last year. It was a huge performance that deserves marking up, as he was drawn in stall two and high draws are favoured at Epsom.
Vintage Clarets should relish the cut in the ground and more rain is forecast
In fairness to Vintage Clarets, he is versatile, and he deserves plenty of credit for that. He has won races on Good to Firm, Good, Good to Soft, Soft, Heavy, and even Standard To Slow on the All Weather.
While three of his ten victories were on Good to Firm going and a further two were on Good, I feel he is at his best on ground with some juice in it. Arguably, his best performance to date (and highest RPR) was when he won the 2024 Catterick Dash on Soft going. That’s a race he has won twice, as he won it on Heavy going the previous year.
Whilst it is officially Good going on the 5f course at Epsom, that is very debatable. Oisin Murphy won the opening race of the festival on that track, and he said it was riding Soft, as did other jockeys. It may have dried back out overnight, but I’d imagine there is still some juice in it. Furthermore, there is another 7mm of rain forecast, which I hope comes to fruition!
Vintage Clarets has landed a lovely high draw which is perfect!
The 5f at Epsom is one of the fastest five furlong tracks in the world. That’s because they run downhill for the majority of the race, and often come across to the near side rail, which can be a golden highway.
Considering these factors, it’s much better to be drawn high (towards the near side rail) and to race prominently. Vintage Clarets instantly ticks the first box, as he is drawn in stall 18 of 20, just three from the near side rail.
Ethan Tindall has been booked to ride, claiming 5lb and reducing Vintage Clarets’ weight from 8st 10lb to just 8st 5lb. That means he will carry the lowest weight of any horse in the race, and if Ethan can break out of the stalls well, I believe he could hit the front and never be headed.
Can Vintage Clarets land his 11th career win?
In my opinion, the positives are plentiful. He is extremely well handicapped, he should relish the ground conditions and he has landed a lovely high draw. In addition, Ethan Tindall takes off 5lb, which can only help. Vintage Clarets certainly knows how to win as well, with ten career victories recorded.
In terms of negatives, he has been out of form for his last few runs, albeit he has had excuses for some of those. There are also risks attached to booking an apprentice to ride, especially in a race as fast and furious as this where track position is crucial.
Weighing up the positives and the negatives, I think Vintage Clarets looks to have a superb chance and he’s well worth an each way bet. Arguably I could trim the stake down to reflect his recent form, but with an outstanding price of 16/1 on offer, I’m going a full 1pt each way.
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