Key Points
- Today’s horse racing betting tip is handicapped to strike
- On his favoured ground he should run a massive race here!
- Gavin Sheehan takes the ride which is the icing on the cake!
I’m sticking my neck out today, as I’m very strong on this horse! This bet is the biggest single outlay bet that I have advised in my time with Betting.co.uk from March 2025 to date. If this horse produces the performance I’m expecting, he will take an awful lot of beating. And at 6/1 with three places, he looks an absolute gift!
If you’re just reading an article of mine for the first time, I’m Gav, better known as RacingGav on X/Twitter. I’m the resident horse racing expert here and I publish several articles each week for this site. These are predominantly
free horse racing tips, whether that be on the day (like this one) or antepost. I also produce other types of articles such as big race trends, educational guides and more.
Every Saturday, I write two different articles. I have my main betting tip (this one) with a primary focus on long term profit and I also put together
a Lucky 15 bet
across the ITV Racing action, which is more for fun! This week’s Lucky 15 has selections from Warwick and Newbury and it’s already live, so make sure you take a look at that one!
Betting advice
- 14:25 Warwick -
Fugitif
@ 6/1 (3 places) - 2.5pt each way
bet365 are offering the best odds and place terms!
It is simply fantastic value all round with bet365 when it comes to Fugitif in this Veterans race. First and foremost, they are offering the
best horse racing odds
across the market at 6/1. That alone is a good reason to back him, but bet365 are also offering three places compared to the standard two. There’s also an excellent new customer offer to think about. If you
bet £10, you’ll get £30 of free bets. What’s not to like about bet365.
Fugitif is overdue a win and this race looks like the perfect opportunity!
Sometimes the stars just seem to align for a horse and every piece of the puzzle just seems to slot into place. As that seems to be the case here, I’m willing to stick my neck out on this one with my biggest stake so far. If you want to know why I’m so confident in today’s selection, keep reading and I’ll cover it all!
Fugitif is handicapped to strike and this looks the perfect race for him
Fugitif is a five time winner under rules but his peak performance came in the 2023 December Gold Cup where he won off a very tough mark of 151. That was no fluke performance though as he also finished second in the 2023 Plate Handicap Chase off a mark of 149 and he also placed in the 2024 running of the December Gold Cup off a mark of 150! He even once had the class to finish third in the Grade 1 Clarence House Chase when it was switched to Cheltenham’s Trials Day in 2023, despite the inadequate trip and the talented Jonbon lining up!
Since his third in the 2024 December Gold Cup, he’s produced form figures of 608554 which has been very disappointing. However, he has had excuses in some of those races. The plus side to that poor form is that his mark has tumbled down a whole stone from 150 to just 136 and that makes him very dangerously handicapped here. This time last year he was competing in the Grade 2 Denman Chase at Newbury and producing a RPR of 150! Between his runs in the top handicaps and even graded races, he’s faced some tough tasks but he should find this Veterans’ company much easier and it looks an ideal opportunity to get his head in front.
On his favoured ground Fugitif should run a massive race here!
He was sent off joint favourite on his reappearance run, which was also his first venture into Veterans’ company. However, after shaping well, he looked to be in need of the run. I had high hopes that he could build on that and make his second Veterans’ company start a winning one, but it wasn’t to be. I think he had a couple of factors against him there. Firstly, I think he wants more juice in the ground than the Good to Soft that day. Secondly, his subsequent wind surgery suggests he may well have had a respiratory problem that day.
On his first run back after surgery, he was set a tough task in the Class 2 Bet365 Handicap Chase, where he ran a huge race for a long way. He travelled supremely well but he weakened before two out, eventually finishing fourth. There is absolutely no shame in finishing fourth behind Vincenzo, Bad and Etalon either. They are all talented horses and have much younger legs. I also wonder whether he needed that first run back after wind surgery too.
With that run under his belt, he will have no excuses this time. He gets his favoured ground here with the official going described as Heavy, Soft in places with further “light rain” expected. Being a French bred horse, he loves juice underfoot, and his three peak performances have all come on Soft ground. He also won on Heavy ground at Uttoxeter earlier in his career, and I was there when he won at Chepstow and the weather that day was biblical!
Gavin Sheehan takes the ride which is the icing on the cake!
Charlie Maggs has ridden Fugitif for his last four runs claiming 5lb. I really rate Charlie Maggs and I believe he is excellent value for that 5lb. Even so, there is a big step up from his level to the top professionals. One of those is Gavin Sheehan, and I’d argue he is one of the strongest jockeys around.
Gavin Sheehan has got a fantastic tune out of Fugitif on previous occasions, with his overall form figures on the horse reading 12413P. There are a few things to note about these races. Firstly, his fourth place was the run prior to his win in the December Gold Cup, so it was likely just to sharpen him up, and also it was run on the Old Course at Cheltenham, which is less suitable for him. The third place was in the Grade 1 Clarence House Chase over an inadequate trip, as already discussed. Lastly, he was pulled up at Aintree following a hard race in the Grade 1 Ryanair Chase, over a trip that was beyond him, and on going that was far from ideal.
Giving Gavin a pass on the runs mentioned, the remaining form figures read 121, and hopefully Gavin can add to that excellent record today! Obviously it is a blow to lose Charlie’s 5lb claim, but I believe Gavin is worth the extra few pounds. It’s also worth noting that with Fugitif’s rapidly falling mark, the appeal of a Claimer lessens. Today he will carry a very reasonable 11st 5lb to carry.
Can Fugitif win this Veterans’ Handicap Chase?
In my opinion, the positives are overwhelming for Fugitif here. He is very dangerously handicapped and this looks a very winnable race for him. You can rule out Knappers Hill and Lord Baddesley on the ground straight away, which only leaves four to beat. It’s his second run since wind surgery, which is usually the time to catch them, and he has going to suit. Gavin Sheehan also returns to the saddle, which is a massive plus in my eyes. I don’t think he’d look out of place in this lineup carrying top weight, so the fact he carries just 11st 5lb looks very appealing.
In terms of the negatives, he is winless since landing the 2023 December Gold Cup, and his form has been more miss than hit of late. However, I do feel he has had a number of excuses for the majority of those runs, and his mark has tumbled to reflect the form. This time last year he was rated 148 and he was running in Grade 2 company and now he’s just 136 and running in Veterans’ Handicaps. You could argue that age is catching up with him now at 11, but in Veterans’ company, they are all 10+ anyway, so that’s not really relevant.
When you consider all of the positives and lack of negatives, I think Fugitif has a fantastic chance here. I would actually be disappointed if he couldn’t win this and I’d be really surprised if he wasn’t at least in the first three. Therefore, the price of 6/1 with three places makes him a fantastic bet in my eyes. As a result, I’m sticking my neck out here and putting up a 2.5pt each way stake today.
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