Key Points
- This filly looked an unlucky loser last time out
- Her Dam relished this trip and softer ground
- Her trainer has an excellent record at the track
This Listed Fillies’ Stakes is a deep race in terms of numbers, with 18 out of a maximum field of 20 expected to go to post. Arguably, only a handful of them have a realistic chance of winning. The rest are most likely here in the hope of gaining some Black Type. For the benefit of those who don’t know, placing in a Listed Race enhances their broodmare appeal. Our filly has largely been campaigned at much higher levels, and if she takes to these conditions, she could blow this field away.
If you’re just encountering my content for the first time, my name is Gav, better known as RacingGav on X. I am the resident horse racing expert here at Betting.co.uk and I publish regular content here. Around four or five articles per week, generally. These typically focus on betting tips, mostly for that day’s racing, but sometimes looking ahead at the antepost markets. I also write other articles including big race trends and educational guides.
If you are reading this article, you may also be interested in my selections for a
Lucky 15 across the ITV Racing action, which is already live. Today’s Lucky 15 features selections from Doncaster and Aintree. For the latter, I’ve included today’s feature race, the Grand Sefton.
Betting advice
- 15:10 Doncaster -
Elwateen
@ 5/1 (4 places) -
0.75pt each way
QuinnBet are offering fantastic value on Elwateen
QuinnBet are offering 5/1 and 4 places for Elwateen, which is well worth taking in my opinion. Although 5/1 is widely available, you won’t get the four places everywhere. In addition to this, QuinnBet has a sign up offer for new customers should you be on the hunt for a new bookie. If you bet £10, you’ll get a £10 free bet.. Why not take a look? QuinnBet could be a nice option for you
I don’t believe Elwateen has shown us her best so far
Since her debut win at Kempton, Elwateen’s career has been quite frustrating. She ran a cracker in defeat in the 1,000 Guineas, before failing to fire in the Epsom Oaks and the Falmouth Stakes. It looked like it would be her day last time out in the Rosemary Stakes, but that didn’t go according to plan either. I believe today will see her shine, and here you’ll learn why I !
Elwateen looked an unlucky loser last time out
I have touched on some of it already, but let’s look at Elwateen’s career to date. She made her debut in a Fillies’ Novices’ Stakes at Kempton where she justified her odds of 4/6 in good style. Despite only having that one run under her belt, she had made a big impression with her work at home, and was subsequently thrown into the 1,000 Guineas at Newmarket, which is a Group 1 Classic. She ran an absolute stormer to finish fourth, beaten just 2.25 lengths. After the race, trainer Saeed Bin Suroor commented that she
“needs further”
and
“a bit more give in the ground would suit her”.
Next, connections made the ambitious decision to run Elwateen in the Oaks, bearing in mind this was just her third career start. This was a big step up in trip from 1m to 1m 4f, and it was run on Good to Soft ground at the quirky Epsom track. Unfortunately, she didn’t fire that day, and also looked like a non-stayer at the trip. Nonetheless they continued to pursue the top level by heading to the Falmouth Stakes, but Elwateen ran no race at all.
A lot had already been asked of her at a very early stage of her career, and I felt the decision to give her a break at that point was the correct one. Elvateen returned to race in Listed company 77 days later, which looked like an easier task for her. I thought she would show her class and get back to winning ways, and I actually tipped her to my Discord members that day. Sadly, whilst travelling like a dream, she ran out of room and was hampered. Her chances of winning were over, but she rallied very pleasingly inside the final 110yds, doing her best work at the finish. In my opinion, she was a very unlucky loser there.
Her Dam relished this trip and softer ground
Roughly six weeks after her run in the Rosemary Stakes, Elwateen comes here for another Listed race. But this race is particularly interesting for a couple of reasons. Firstly, it is a step up in trip from 1m to 1m 2f. Secondly, it’s the first time she’ll encounter properly Soft ground. In fact, it’s even Soft, Heavy in places at the time of writing.
Elwateen is unproven on softer conditions. However, I am still optimistic, thanks to Tawkeel, her dam. Tawkeel was also bred by Shadwell, and spent her six-race career in France. She won on her first five starts, with the fourth and the fifth of those over the 1m 2f trip on Good to Soft, and the Very Soft ground. The former was a Group 1 race, and the latter was in Group 2 company. Arguably, Tawkeel’s career best run came on her sixth and final start in the Prix de l'Opera Longines, where she finished fourth, producing a RPR of 115 and that on Heavy ground.
Whilst it is no guarantee, we can often use a horse’s pedigree to help guide us on aspects such as their best trip and ground conditions. Hopefully the genes that saw Tawkeel excel with similar conditions have passed on to Elwateen, and she should thrive today if they have.
Elwateen’s trainer has an excellent record at this track
I also find it rather interesting that Saeed Bin Suroor has decided to bring Elwateen to Doncaster. He has a fantastic record at this track with an all time strike rate of 25%, with 101 winners from 404 runs. A remarkable 264 of the 404 runners (65%) finished in the first four home. Perhaps even more impressively, given we are talking about hundreds of runners, he has produced a profit of +£2.74 to £1 level stakes.
If we look at 2025 in isolation, Saeed Bin Suroor has sent just one runner to Doncaster, and it was a winner, so he already has a 100% strike rate here. Hopefully Elwateen can also win here and maintain that perfect record for him. Three of the last five renewals of this race have been won by three-year-olds, so the statistics are in her favour too. I also like her central draw in stall eight of the eighteen, as this will give Kevin Stott plenty of options.
Can Elwateen get back to winning ways at Doncaster?
There is an awful lot to like about Elwateen’s chances here. We know she has plenty of talent from her run in the 1,000 Guineas. Her trainer always believed she would do better over further than a mile, and with some juice in the ground, and the latter is backed up by her pedigree. She was an unlucky loser when dropped to Listed company last time out, but hopefully she can make amends here. We are looking at a big field here, but I think only a few have a realistic chance of winning, Elwateen certainly being one of them.
On the other side of the debate, there is risk attached with this step up in trip, and with her tackling softer ground, as she is unproven on both counts. Whilst her pedigree supports it, that is no guarantee. On paper, Elwateen has 6lb to find with Danielle, who heads the market, albeit that becomes 3lb when you factor in the 3lb weight-for-age allowance Elwateen receives here.
Unless she doesn’t handle the trip or ground, which I don’t think will happen, I will be very shocked if Elwateen doesn't finish in the first four here. Danielle has improved this season as a four-year-old, and on paper, she is the one to beat. However, her form has been over 1m 6f, 1m 6.5f and 1m 4f, so she could find this trip on the sharp side. Last season Danielle ran to a RPR of 100 and I’d like to think Elwateen could comfortably surpass that. If Danielle runs to the RPR of 111 she achieved at Ascot last time, she’ll be a tough nut to crack, but I still think Elwateen can beat her.
Need a new bookie account for the weekend?
Below you will find five of our recommended bookmakers and the fantastic free bet offers they currently have available. There is plenty of value to be had by using these deals, so make sure you take a look ahead of this weekend’s great racing!
1.
Bet £10 Get £40
Requirements (WR): 4x Bonus + 10x Deposit, Min. Deposit: 10
New cust. Deposit £10+ in 7 days & bet on sports. Min odds apply. Reward = 4 x £10 Free Bets (2 x £10 Bet Builders & 2 x £10 Sports bet). Valid 7 days. Free bets not valid on e-sports & non UK/IE horse racing.
18+. T&Cs Apply.
GambleAware.org.
2.
100% up to £100 + 100 Free Spins
Requirements (WR): 40x Bonus, Min. Deposit: £10
1st deposit only | min deposit £10 | max bet £2 | max bonus £100 | max cashout x 3 the bonus | max cashout from bonus spin winnings £100 | x40 wagering on bonus and bonus spin winnings | 30-day bonus expiry | 24-hour bonus spins expiry | bonus is valid for selected games only
3.
Bet £40 Get £20
Requirements (WR): 4x£5 Build A Bet
18+. New customers only. Place a minimum £40 bet on any selection with minimum odds of Evens (2.00) and receive 4x£5 Free Bets. Free bets expire after 24 hours. BeGambleAware.org. T&Cs & Maximum Pay-Outs Apply. #ad
4.
Bet £10 and get 50 free spins on Big Bass Splash
Min. Deposit: £10
18+ Play responsibly www.gambleaware.org| Bonus T&Cs apply | User agreement | £10 min deposit | £10 in slot bets grant 50 spins on Big Bass Splash | £5 total spin value | £0.10 per spin | 7-day expiry | Selected payment methods only
5.
Bet £10, get £20 in free bets
Min. Deposit: 10
18+, UK only, Full T&Cs apply
Want more RacingGav content? Join my Discord!
While I produce four or five articles per week for Betting.co.uk, the vast majority of my content is exclusive to members of my Discord server. It’s the only place where you can access all of my betting tips and much more!
The Discord launched back in January 2024 and it’s still going now, so I must be doing something right! We’re off to a profitable start in November with winnings already going in at 13/2, 11/1 and 6/1 in the opening week!
I’m sure you are wondering how much all of this will cost you? Well, it’s just £14.99 per month - less than 50p per day!
Alternatively, you may prefer a longer-term commitment for savings:
- Quarterly: £34.99 (saves £9.98)
- Bi-Annually: £74.99 (saves £14.95)
- Annually: £149.99 (saves £29.89)
I’m so confident that you’ll enjoy the Discord that I offer
a 7-day free trial. And I’m also confident that my tips will make a profit, so if you join and don’t make a profit across your first 30 days, I’ll refund your subscription fee!
If you want to know more, my DMs are always open on X – @RacingGav.
The latest sports news with betting.co.uk
The latest sports news with betting.co.uk
The latest sports news with betting.co.uk
The latest sports news with betting.co.uk
