Key Points
- Today’s betting tip won this race last year
- He already has a prep run under his belt
- He has landed a lovely low draw in stall two
There is an abundance of horse racing action today with five Flat meetings, three Jumps meetings, and a mixed meeting at Haydock. However, you won’t have to wait long for my betting tip today. He runs in the opener at Lingfield and he is available at 10/1, which feels far too big to me!
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Betting advice
- 12:55 Lingfield -
Morcar
- @ 10/1 (3 places) -
1pt each way
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As I write this article, bet365 has the stand out
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for Morcar. They are the only bookmaker willing to stick their neck out and offer 10/1 and that looks extremely good value to me! In addition, their new customer deal is pretty hot too. If you bet £10 you’ll get £30 of free bets. Fantastic value all round.
Morcar is completely underestimated at 10/1
I’m quite frankly shocked that Morcar is available at a double figure price. I cannot see that lasting until the race goes off! Those odds suggest that he has a 9.09% chance of winning this race and that just seems ludicrous to me. I think the probability is far higher than that in reality and therefore, making him a great bet.
Morcar won this race last year
Morcar has run in the last two renewals of this race. In 2024, he ran here at Lingfield on his seasonal debut, having had wind surgery and a gelding operation and he ended up finishing third, beaten just three quarters of a length at the line. That was off a mark of an official handicap mark of 76. Later that season, he ended up winning back here in June off a mark of 72 and later struck again at Windsor in August off a mark of 73.
Last year, they switched up their plans. They started his season a month earlier, and he raced at Newbury, then Windsor, before coming back for another crack at this race. With two runs under his belt, he won off a 2lb higher mark of 78. He held his form through the rest of the season, recording form figures of 2333 in his next four starts. He flopped on his last run of the season in September, but that was on unsuitably Soft going, so I'd draw a line through that.
He already has a prep run under his belt
Following his lesser effort at Windsor in September, he was put away for the winter. He was off the track for 229-days, during which time he was given further wind surgery, before reappearing at Newbury last month. As a general rule, the second time out after wind surgery is typically the time to catch a horse, so today lines up perfectly with that.
It was also good to see him get that run under his belt at Newbury as well. Especially as he was beaten in this race two years ago when fresh, but with a couple of runs under his belt last year, he won. Hopefully the second race this has put him spot on for today, and if so, he must hold every chance off the same marky.
Morcar has landed a lovely low draw in stall two
It's beneficial to be drawn low at Lingfield, as the course has a left-hand bend, and it's better to be nearer the rail. For that reason it's lovely to see that Morcar has drawn stall two today. Ironically, he was drawn in stall one for both of his previous attempts in this race, but it was asking a bit much to land that draw three years running.
Judged on RPRs, Morcar’s nine best performances have all been on Good to Firm going, so he clearly prefers fast ground. Similarly his form figures over C&D read 3311, so he seems to like the track here at Lingfield too. Therefore, the current Good to Firm, Good in places looks ideal, and with a dry forecast, that could easily change to Good To Firm, depending on how much watering they decide on.
Can Morcar successfully defend his crown?
Morcar certainly ticks a lot of boxes for me in this race. He won the race last year and finished third in it the year, plus his C&D form reads 3311. He relishes fast ground, so the official going of Good to Firm, Good in places looks perfect for him. He also had wind surgery during his winter break, and this will be his second run since, which is usually the best time to catch them. He has had a prep run this time around, and he has landed a lovely low draw in stall two. He really should have every chance here, especially returning off the same mark as last year.
In terms of negatives, he was ridden by Alec Voikhansky last year, who claimed 3lb. But today he will be ridden by Joe Leavy, so he is effectively 3lb worse off than last time, but Joe has more experience, so it’s swing and roundabouts on that front. The other slight concern is that he had two prep runs for last year’s race, whereas this time he has only had one.
All things considered, I certainly feel that 10/1 completely underestimates his chances. In fact, it’s verging on insulting. Whilst there are a couple of small negatives, he looks well worth a solid 1pt each way bet at his current odds. I’ll be very shocked and disappointed if Morcar isn’t at least in the frame and I believe he has every chance of winning this.
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