Key Points
- Today’s horse racing tip was a huge eye-catcher in the Paddy Power Chase
- This horse should improve for his latest run and the form has worked out well
- My selection has won and placed in two of his three runs on Heavy going
A day later than expected, we can now get stuck into the Dublin Racing Festival action at Leopardstown, and I cannot wait! Saturday’s racing was sadly postponed as the weather left the track unfit for racing. However, full credit to Horse Racing Ireland, as they have rapidly rearranged for yesterday’s Day 1 races to run on Monday instead, so we won’t miss out.
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Betting advice
- 14:45 Dublin Racing Festival- The Leopardstown Handicap Chase -
Kinturk Kalanisi
@ 9/1 (6 places) -
0.75pt each way
bet365 are offering the best price, the best place terms and £30 in free bets!
At the time of writing, the
best horse racing odds
for Kinturk Kalanisi to win this race are at 9/1. As well as offering this best price, bet365 are also offering the best place terms, with a very generous six on offer in this race! If you don’t already, have an account, the current sign up offer is bet £10, get £30 in free bets. Unbeatable odds and place terms, plus a great sign up deal, what’s not to like!
If Kinturk Kalanisi was trained by Willie or Gordon, he’d be a shorter price!
In my opinion, Kinturk Kalanisi is only available at 9/1 because of the fact he is trained by Thomas Gibney and owned by John & Sabrina Daly. With that, I mean no disrespect to any of the aforementioned folks, more so that the betting market always seems to favour the big trainers and owners. If he was trained by Willie Mullins or Gordon Elliott, or owned by JP McManus, I think he’d be a shorter price here. In this article, I’ll explain why I think he is a fantastic bet today at 9/1, so make sure you read on!
Kinturk Kalanisi was a huge eye-catcher when third in the Paddy Power Chase
Sent off at 28/1 off the back of a 250-day break and ridden by a 7lb claimer, it would be reasonable to expect that Kinturk Kalanisi was expected to improve for his run in the Paddy Power Chase. However, he ran an absolute cracker there leading the field jumping the final fences. Over the 3m 0.5f trip around this track , he began to weaken badly up the run-in and could only finish third.
That was a hugely eye-catching run and I think the drop back in trip here could be exactly what he wants. Ultimately whether he was just outstayed there or whether the gas tank emptied on his first run back, neither should be an issue today with that run under his belt and the shorter trip. Therefore, I would be confident of him running a huge race here if he jumps and travels as well as he did over the festive period.
In both the 2023/24 and 2024/25 season, he has produced a stronger performance on his second start than his first start of the season. Therefore, you would have to be extremely hopeful that with that run under his belt, we should see an improved performance from Kinturk Kalanisi today. The Paddy Power Chase run was off a mark of 135, he was awarded a RPR of 140 for it and the handicapper has raised him 3lb to 138. However, I think he could have more improvement to come than those 3lbs that he has been raised by.
It is also worth taking a look at the form of that Paddy Power Chase. The race was won by Favori De Champdou and he followed that up by winning the Cross Country race at Cheltenham by eight and a half lengths. Similarly the horse who finished behind Kinturk Kalanisi in fourth - Now Is The Hour, went on to Gowran Park to win the Thyestes Handicap Chase on his next start, further franking the form. Hopefully that form will look even stronger once Kinturk Kalanisi has run today!
Kinturk Kalanisi has one win and one place from three runs on Heavy ground
Some may question whether Kinturk Kalanisi wants this testing ground as that strong run at Leopardstown came on ground officially described as Yielding. However, he has encountered Heavy ground three times during his career to date and he’s won one of them and placed in another of them. He has also placed a further twice on Soft/Heavy ground, so I cannot see it being a problem at all for him.
In this testing ground, I also think the weights that they will be carrying could be the key. For horses like Croke Park and Ile Atlantique, it could be tough to shoulder 11st 12lb in such testing conditions. On the other hand, Kinturk Kalanisi is only allocated to carry 10st 12lb and in reality with James Smith’s 5lb claim, that is reduced down to just 10st 7lb. As the going gets tough at the business end of this race, having a low weight like this on his back could make all the difference.
Can Kinturk Kalanisi record his first win in this €150,000 handicap?
There are plenty of positives for Kinturk Kalanisi. He was a huge eye-catcher in the Paddy Power Chase and looked the winner turning in before being ground down. Over this shorter trip and with a run under his belt, I think he could take some real stopping this time around. Given he was sent off 28/1 the last day and it was after a 250-day absence, I would expect him to improve plenty for it. The form has worked out extremely well and he has form on testing ground, so the positives keep on coming.
In terms of the negatives, he has to prove he will improve for that run and that it wasn’t already him at his best. It is also inconvenient to have been raised 3lb for that latest run. Last time out he was ridden by a 7lb claimer and this time around, it’s only a 5lb claim, with the additional 2lb carried, it’s effectively a 5lb rise from last time. That said, James Smith should arguably be stronger and more experienced in the saddle than Harry Sexton. Arguably the biggest concern I’d have is how hard of a race did he have in the Paddy Power Chase as he really was running on empty at the end and there is a small worry that he could go backwards for it rather than forwards.
All things considered, I think Kinturk Kalanisi has a huge chance here. I think a price of 9/1 with six places on offer represents fantastic value and he’s well worth a bet on those terms. However, given the negatives raised, along with the fact it’s an extremely competitive renewal, I’m trimming the stake down to 0.75pt each way.
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