Key Points
- Today’s horse racing betting tip gets a much-needed step up in trip
- He has now fallen to 7lb below his last winning mark
- He wears first time blinkers to sharpen him up
Today we head to Newcastle for the latest of my
free horse racing betting tips
where I fancy one at a big price! There are several different factors that make me believe that he can outrun his huge 20/1 odds.
If you’re just finding my content for the first time, I’m RacingGav and I’m the resident horse racing expert here at Betting.co.uk. Within that role, I publish both daily betting tips and antepost selections, like this one for
Friday’s action at Cheltenham. I also produce other types of content such as big race trends, educational guides and much more. Meaning there should be plenty for everyone to enjoy!
If you want more betting tips this week, be sure to tune back in tomorrow for my usual daily tip. Then on Saturday, it’s double whammy, with a betting tip and a Lucky 15 across the ITV Racing action.
Betting advice
- 14:45 Newcastle -
Trac
@ 20/1 -
0.5pt Win
bet365 is offering the best odds for Trac!
At the time of writing, bet365 has the
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This is the ideal race to get him back on “Trac”!
I’m a big fan of Trac. I’ve tipped him previously and he has won twice for my Discord members. He hasn’t been at his best so far this season, but today’s race looks ideal for a multitude of reasons. In this article, I’ll break them down for you. Make sure you keep reading in order to understand my logic.
Trac gets a much-needed step up in trip
Trac recorded three wins during the 2023/24 season. The first of those was over 2m 3f at Catterick on Soft ground, and the next two were over 2m 0.5f and 2m respectively. It’s also worth noting that both of Trac’s wins over the shorter trips came on Heavy ground in strongly run races. So while the trips don’t scream stamina, the circumstances brought stamina to the fore, which played a big part in him winning.
Last season, he mostly raced over intermediate trips, but his mark of 114 after those wins was too high, having won them off marks of 99, 101 and 108 respectively. However, after two mediocre runs over 2m 1f this season, his mark has now dropped back down to a very workable 101. Today he goes back up in trip, something he has been in need of, as he was completely outpaced in both of his runs during this campaign.
Trac has now fallen to 7lb below his last winning mark
As mentioned, Trac has now fallen to a handicap mark of 101, which is 7lb below his last win, which was off a mark of 108. That was his second successive win with the first coming off the same mark of 101 he has for this race. We already know he is more than capable of winning off this mark when he is at his best, and with conditions to suit.
To perform at his best, Trac needs a strong pace to aim at. If he has that, he will keep galloping. What he doesn’t need is a slow pace and then a dash for the line, as he doesn’t have the change of gear that some possess. On paper, this race looks ideal for him. In addition to the longer trip, there also looks to be multiple pace angles. Jet Legs, Choose A Copper, and Ailt An Chorrain all like to race prominently, and Walk On Quest and One More Stroke are unlikely to be far away either. If they all push one another, there could quite easily be a pace collapse for Trac to capitalise on.
Trac wears first time blinkers to sharpen him up
Trac regularly wears cheekpieces, which was the case for his latest run. However, I find it interesting that connections have chosen to switch them for first time blinkers today. Ultimately both are a tool to help a horse concentrate on the race, rather than what is going on around them, and perhaps the cheekpieces are not sufficient to do that any more. Hopefully the change will have the desired effect and keep his mind on the task.
Between the longer trip today and the new headgear, Trac should travel better through the race, and if he’s in touch turning in, he should be staying on strongly. The track at Newcastle should also help on that front, as it has a steady uphill rise from the home turn. As he is also a previous course winner, hopefully the return to this track will be a big help too.
Can Trac bounce back to winning ways?
With the step up in trip, the reduced mark, the first time blinkers and also the talented Danny McMenamin in the saddle today, I’m very hopeful we’ll see a significantly improved performance from Trac. He steps up to Class 4, and he has a lovely racing weight of 10st 9lb. A big improvement compared to the 11st 13lb and 12st he had to carry in his last two races.
On the negative side, when Trac has performed badly, he has been very poor. Since his two wins, his form figures have read 6P54-25. On paper, there is promise in that second place. However, there were only seven runners, and three came out of the race at the second last, either falling, unseating their rider, or being brought down. Without that, it’s unlikely he would have finished in the frame at all.
All elements considered, I feel he can massively outperform his odds of 20/1. However, there are risks attached and there are no guarantees the old Trac returns here. Given those risks involved, I’m playing half stakes and win only to limit our exposure. Hopefully the ‘real’ Trac will turn up here and if so, he could cause an upset.
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