Key Points
- Today’s betting tip showed a great turn of foot and attitude last time out
- This stiffer tracker and more testing ground should play to his strengths
- His yard has been in prolific form with a 35% strike rate in February to date
We have two Jumps meetings and two AW meetings today, with action at Taunton, Leicester, Lingfield (AW) and Chelmsford (AW). My selection for today will run at Leicester, where it will be quite a test for the horses with the Heavy going and the stiffness of the track. Nevertheless, I think this horse will relish the test, and he will be a very tough nut to crack in this race.
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Betting advice
- 14:05 Leicester -
Mon Champion
@ 13/8 -
1pt Win
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Mon Champion can capitalise on a lenient rise for his latest win!
As well as a thrilling finish for racing fans, a short-margin win can make it hard for the handicapper to decide on a suitable rise. I think that’s what has happened here. Mon Champion’s latest win was impressive, yet he has only been raised 4lb. For that reason and a few others, I think he will be a tough nut to crack and is well worth a bet. In this article, I’ll give you my take on Mon Champion’s chances in this race.
In a five-runner field last time, Mon Champion’s race became quite tactical. The fractions switched between an even gallop, and a sedate one, which will always favour those in front. In this case, it favoured Hors Jeu. As they reached 2f from home, the pace ramped up significantly, and became a real dash for the line, with the final 2f being fast on the clock.
Mon Champion initially got caught a little flat footed, however, he showed a great attitude to keep finding more and more. Hors Jeu actually jumped more fluently, which made the task even tougher for Mon Champion. However, a combination of speed and the ability to sustain it saw Mon Champion ultimately get up by a nose at the line.
With the race set up to suit Hors Jeu, and the fact he jumped better at the business end, I think Mon Champion deserves plenty of credit for still getting up to win. And just for the record, he was also giving 10lb to Hors Jeu that day. It is also worth noting that the pair pulled 16 lengths clear of the next horse. Considering all of that, I think Mon Champion’s 4lb rise is lenient, given that he ran off a mark of 113 and achieved a RPR of 126.
A stiffer tracker and more testing ground should play to Mon Champion’s strengths
With the way that Mon Champion kept finding pressure he was ultimately the strongest horse at the finish, I think the switch to the stiffer Leicester track will really suit him. At Hereford, it's a downhill right-handed turn to the home straight, and it can be tough to reel in front runners, especially when they have the inside rail as well. However, at Leicester it's a stiff uphill finish, which makes it easier to come from behind.
The ground conditions will also make it a stiff test, despite being over the minimum trip, as the official going is Heavy, with further light rain forecast. Mon Champion’s latest performance was a career-best, and, his first run on properly Soft ground in the UK. However, he has plenty of form on Heavy going from his French days. and most French-bred horses enjoy plenty of cut underfoot.
Interestingly, Paul Nicholls was going to send Mon Champion out just five days after his win at Sandown, but he was a non-runner due to being sore. Paul clearly thinks he’ll stay further, likely because Mon Champion he finished second over 2m 6f at Auteuil on his penultimate French start. With the track and the Heavy ground, that stamina will be a huge asset. That said, he’s no slouch and he recorded impressive speeds and sectional times at Hereford.
Paul Nicholls couldn’t be in much better form coming into this race. He has already had six winners from 17 runners this month, producing a mighty strike rate of 35%. Paul has also picked up a further three seconds, two thirds and a fourth place from those 17 runners as well, so 12/17 (70%+) of his runners this month have finished in the first four home. If you had backed all of his February runners to date based on a £10 level stake, you would have achieved £121.10 profit.
Today’s jockey, Freddie Gingell, has also been riding well for Paul Nicholls this season. He has ridden eight winners from 37 rides, which is a healthy strike rate of 22%. When you factor in the seconds, thirds and fourth places he has achieved, almost 50% of his rides have finished in the first four. If you had backed his rides for Paul Nicholls this season at £10 level stakes, you’d show a profit of £57.80.
It’s also worth noting Paul Nicholls’ record at this track. In the last five years, he has only sent seven runners to Leicester. Of those seven runners, three have won (43%) and the other four all finished in the first three (100%). This makes it clear that he doesn’t send any to Leicester for a day out, when he sends his runners here, he means business! The statistics remain impressive if you work back through his all-time record here. From 51 runners, he has produced 20 winners (39%) with 44/51 (86%) finishing in the first four places.
Can Mon Champion defy his 4lb higher mark?
As you can see, the list of positives for Mon Champion is enormous. He showed great speed, stamina and a fantastic attitude during his recent win at Hereford. While he only got up by a nose at the line, I feel he was value for more, and his subsequent 4lb rise underestimates him. This stiffer track and the more testing ground both look to be of benefit to him too, and may well bring out further improvement.
To me, Mon Champion looks like he’ll stay further, and his stamina will certainly help him up the hill to the finish at Leicester. Finally Paul Nicholls has been in great form, he has a fantastic record at this track, and Freddie Gingell is riding well for the Paul this season. As you can see, there is an awful lot to like about Mon Champion’s chances today.
In terms of the negatives, I cannot see a great deal in all honesty. Arguably a 17 day turnaround is on the skinny side but Paul had him entered to run just five days later at Sandown and I’m sure he wouldn’t be running him here today unless he felt he was ready for it. The only other possible negative is that Epic West is lightly raced with just two runs over fences and five runs under rules altogether, so he is unexposed and open to improvement against Mon Champion here.
Whilst I respect Epic West in this race, given how unexposed he is, I think Mon Champion is worthy of a solid bet here at 13/8. I’m not going to get carried away though, and it’ll just be a 1pt Win today.
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