Key Points
- Today’s betting tip arrives here race fit after winning in Qatar
- He is unbeaten in four runs over 6f at Newmarket
- The two ahead of him in the market have questions to answer
Today we switch across from National Hunt action to Flat racing at Newmarket, or as it’s often called, racing HQ. A couple of horses interest me on this card but the one I’ve selected runs in the Group 3 Abernant Stakes. He is currently third in the market, but I think he’s the one they need to beat, especially as the top two have questions to answer.
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Betting advice
- 15:00 Newmarket -
Quinault
- @ 13/2 (4 places) -
0.5pt each way
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Quinault is the one they have to beat in my eyes!
Whilst the market has Quinault as third choice, he’s my number one pick and he is underestimated at 13/2. I think he’s a great each way bet with four places on offer, and I will be shocked if he finishes outside the frame. I believe he can beat the first two along with the rest of this field.
Quinault arrives here race fit after winning in Qatar
It’s the first run of the season for many of the horses competing in the Abernant Stakes, which leaves them vulnerable from a fitness perspective. There is a chance they have been fully wound up at home but for some of them, this will just be a test run.
Conversely, Quinault has already had two runs this year. He had a spin on the All Weather at Newcastle in January, before heading over to Qatar in February. The former run was a cracking effort considering it was over 5f and he was giving away plenty of weight. He was carrying 10st 1lb that day, while his rivals only carried between 8st and 8st 13lb.
In February, Quinault tackled the Dukhan Sprint Cup (Local Group 3) in Doha, Qatar where he made all to win, beating some useful horses. Stuart Williams has confirmed that they’re really pleased with his preparation for this race, and it has always been the plan for Quinault to run. Both of those factors can give him an edge over his rivals.
Quinault is unbeaten in four runs over 6f at Newmarket
Quinault has an exceptional record here at Newmarket. To date, he’s had four runs here over 6f, with two on the Rowley Mile, and two on the July course, winning all four. He clearly loves this track and trip, so hopefully he will continue his unbeaten record to make it five wins from five runs.
Quinault does stay 7f, and he has also won over that trip. However, a stiff 6f suits him and it means he can be ridden aggressively, which seems to work well for him. Ultimately, a talented horse with no desire to win won’t get you very far, but Quinault isn’t lacking in that department, as his record of 12/32 suggests! He could well face competition for the lead here, but if they let him get in front, he could be very hard to peg back.
The two ahead of him in the market have questions to answer
Quinault is versatile having won on Good to Firm, Good, Good to Soft and Soft going. He has even won on the All Weather, just further showcasing how flexible he can be. That said, eight of his career wins have come on either Good to Firm, or Good going, so he certainly seems to enjoy a quicker surface, which is what he will get here at Newmarket today.
I find it interesting that Time For Sandals and Beckford’s Folly head the Abernant Stakes market. Time For Sandals was initially destined for Dubai, but due to the conflict in the Middle East, she has stayed at home and comes here instead. Although this race wasn’t part of the plan, she will come on for it in terms of fitness. For me, that’s not sufficient to justify her being the favourite. Of course, there is a chance she will improve further as a four-year-old, but in the meantime, she needs to prove she’s up to competing against established Sprinters.
Beckford’s Folly is a fascinating runner, as he will come here as a three-year-old. He is two from two over 6f here on the July course, but showed he enjoys the Rowley Mile too, when winning over 5f last time out. He didn’t just win that race here either, he set a new Juvenile course record in the process, so he could be special. While all of this must be respected, a three-year-old hasn’t won this race for 30 years.
Can Quinault win the Abernant Stakes?
Quinault certainly has a lot in his favour. The fact that he has already had two runs this year, and it has always been the plan for him to run in this race. That’s before factoring in his record of four wins from four runs over 6f here at Newmarket. He gets the faster ground that he seems to prefer, and I have my doubts over the two at the top of the market as well. Plus, he is simply the best horse on ratings, although this race is not being run off level weights.
In terms of negatives, he is more exposed, and potentially less open to improvement than the younger horses lining up here. He is also giving weight away to the two ahead of him in the market, especially Beckford's Folly, who receives an 11lb allowance as a three-year-old. There's also the fact that the last two renewals of this race, and four of the last ten, have been won by four-year-olds. Quinault also likes to dictate his races, and there is competition for the lead here.
All aspects taken into consideration, I think he is underestimated and overpriced at 13/2. With all of the positives in his favour, and four places available, he is a great each way bet here. I believe he can win this race, and I certainly don't see him finishing outside of the first four, but with the small concerns mentioned, I’m trimming the stake to 0.5pt each way.
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