Key Points
- Today’s horse racing betting tip ran well for a long time on his reappearance
- Second run of the season and second run after a wind operation
- Down in grade and with conditions to suit, he has a great chance
It was great to have a winner yesterday with Upepo obliging in great style at 10/3 over at Lingfield! I have another 10/3 shot for you today and again, I feel he has a massive chance. Hopefully it will be a repeat of yesterday and in the article below, I’ll explain why I think I've found another winner.
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Betting advice
- 14:00 Exeter -
Isaac Des Obeaux
@ 10/3 -
1pt Win
Betfred is offering 10/3 for Isaac Des Obeaux
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It’s time for Isaac Des Obeaux to lose his maiden tag over fences!
To date, Isaac Des Obeaux has raced five times over fences and he is yet to record his first victory over the bigger obstacles. However, he has been thrown into some deep races and this now looks a perfect opportunity to shed his maiden tag.
Isaac Des Obeaux ran well for a long time on his reappearance
Isaac Des Obeaux has always struck me as a chaser in the making, therefore, it was a little underwhelming that he didn’t manage to win in his first four starts over fences last season. However, he did show promise and some horses improve significantly as second season chasers and I feel he could be one of those types.
After a 244-day break and having his first run for a wind operation, he wasn’t a bet for me in Listed company last time. However, I was keen to see how he got on. I was actually very impressed with how well he ran for a long way, especially as he was wrong at the weights with his superiorly rated rivals. In my opinion, he showed more than enough ability for him to be winning races this season.
Second run of the season and second run after a wind operation is a good time to catch him
Many of Paul Nicholl’s horses have needed their first run this season and it looks Isaac Des Obeaux was another of them. With that run now under his belt, I’m expecting significant improvement, especially as it is the second run after his wind operation. As a general rule, this is the time to catch horses after their wind operations. It is widely believed that the first run allows them to see that they can now breathe properly and then they are prepared to put it all in on the next start.
I think that Listed Novices’ Chase at Cheltenham will work out very well and it has already started with the second - One Big Bang, winning on his next start at Southwell. That was a match over fences but he beat a nice horse there in Kaminsas. Olly Murphy also feels the winner that day - Wade Out, could develop into a National Hunt Chase horse at the 2026 Cheltenham Festival.
Down in grade and with conditions to suit, Isaac Des Obeaux must have a great chance
In that Listed Novices’ Chase, Isaac Des Obeaux carried 11st 4lb. Despite being rated 127, the race conditions saw his rivals rated 137, 134 and 136 carry the same weight. Similarly the 146 rated Leave Of Absence only carried 11st 7lb. If that race was a handicap like this one, they would have carried 10lb, 7lb, 9lb and 19lb more than him respectively. Therefore, I really do feel that the performance deserves marking up.
Today’s race is a Class 3 (0-130) handicap, which will be a much easier task. Isaac Des Obeaux is joint top rated here, so he will have to shoulder 12st but he carries that weight for a reason. His rivals here are rated between 108 and 127, which is a huge difference in ability compared with the 134 to 146 rivals faced last time out. With plenty of improvement expected today, especially as he should love these soft conditions, I think Isaac Des Obeaux can give them the weight and a beating!
Can Isaac Des Obeaux land his first win over fences?
As always, we'll first consider the positives, the negatives and the price. The positives are that Isaac Des Obeaux is a second season Chaser. He also ran an eye-catching race on his reappearance, he should improve plenty for that, and this is his second run after a wind operation. He is also down in grade and switched to Handicap racing. Finally he is a French bred horse that will love these testing conditions.
On the negative side, he has had five runs over fences to date without getting his head in front. That said, he has faced some tough opposition to date and this looks easier. It is also worth noting that he will carry 12st in testing conditions. However, he is a big strong horse and I think he can handle it, especially against this level of opposition.
I would personally give Isaac Des Obeaux a favourite’s chance here and put him more around the 7/4-2/1 mark. Therefore, I feel there is value in the 10/3 on offer and he is well worth a 1pt Win bet at that price.
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