Key Points
- With a drop in class my betting tip has a huge chance here
- The step up in trip is a plus point and should see him return to form
- This horse has clearly been campaigned carefully to leave him well handicapped
I’m back! It’s been a quiet few days for me after the whirlwind that was the Cheltenham Festival, which was swiftly followed by the Midlands Grand National day at Uttoxeter! While there has been racing every day since, it’s been pretty poor, and I never tip for the sake of it. However, I have one that has caught my eye at Ludlow today, so we’re back in business!
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Betting advice
- 16:20 Ludlow -
Stoner’s Choice
@ 13/2 (3 places) -
0.5pt each way
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Stoner’s Choice ticks a lot of boxes!
The more I look into Stoner’s Choice, the more positives I find, which I’ll explain in the rest of this article, so make sure that you keep reading….
With a drop in class Stoner’s Choice has a huge chance here
Stoner’s Choice has been running in much tougher Class 2 and Class 3 races so far this season, and there’s no denying that his form on paper doesn’t look great. But dig deeper, and you’ll see that those results don’t tell the full story. We’ll start with his penultimate start at Haydock, where he finished fifth.
The winner of that race, Serious Challenge, went on to finish second in the very valuable Morebattle Hurdle, beaten by less than a length. Furthermore, the second, third and fourth placed horses, Bucephalus, Brentford Hope, and Geromino, have all won since, further franking the form.
But there’s more. On his latest start at Windsor, Stoner’s Choice only placed seventh, but the winner, Hot Fuss, went on to finish second in the Martin Pipe at the Cheltenham Festival, and the horse that placed second at Windsor, Wilful, won the County Hurdle on his next start. With the drop to a Class 4 (0-120) Handicap here, Stoner’s Choice isn’t top weight and with Fern O’Brien claiming 5lb, he will only carry 11st 7lb, and I believe he outclasses his rivals here.
The step back up in trip for Stoner’s Choice is a plus point
Stoner’s Choice has raced over various trips, but his best form was over distances between 2m 3.5f and 2m 6f. In those races he was rated 20lb higher compared to his strongest form over trips of 2m to 2m 1f.
Similar observations apply to the going too. All seven of his wins, and his two best pieces of form, came on Good, or Good to Soft. So his return to going described as Good to Soft, Good in places, will surely suit.
Stoner’s Choice has clearly been campaigned carefully leaving him well handicapped
At his peak back in 2021, Stoner’s Choice won off a mark of 139, and reached an official rating of 143 at one point. Five years on, although he isn’t the horse he once was, I think he retains more than enough ability to be competitive at this level.
The last time we saw Stoner’s Choice in a Hurdles race over 2m 5f was back in February last year at Kempton, where he finished second. He went off at a mark of 130, and lost to a horse four years his junior. His best effort this season was at Carlisle over 2m 4f, where he finished fifth, but produced a RPR of 127. Those pieces of form indicate that he is already dangerously handicapped off a mark of 118, and with Fern’s claim, he effectively runs off 113.
Considering that his last four runs were over distances that varied from 1m 7.5f to 2m 1f, which clearly didn’t suit, it’s not unreasonable to think that there was a long-term plan in place here. He’s now 12lb lower in the handicap, and factoring in Fern’s claim, Stoner’s Choice is effectively 17lb below his last winning mark and that must give him every chance, especially in this lesser contest.
Can Stoner’s Choice roll back the years and win?
With so many positives in his favour, Stoner’s Choice must have a great chance today. He takes a big drop in class, he steps back up in trip, the going will suit, and he runs off a mark of 118 that looks well within his range. When you factor in Fern O’Brien’s 5lb claim, the case only gets stronger, with his mark effectively reduced to 113 and his weight reduced to 11st 7lb.
In terms of negatives, he is 11 years old now, and hasn’t won a race since April 2023. However, the fact that he is still in contention at this age suggests that connections think he has more to give. I also question whether running him over four inadequate trips this season was intentional, and designed to bring his mark down.
But regardless of his back story, Stoner’s Choice has conditions to suit today, giving him a fantastic chance of outrunning his current 13/2 odds. That said, given his age and form, it’s just half stakes for me.
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