Key Points
- Today’s betting tip was travelling well, before unseating his jockey at Bangor
- This horse has been dropped 6lb since the start of this season
- With a strong pace expected, this race should be run to suit my selection
We head to Huntingdon for today’s selection and we don’t have to wait long as he runs in the opening race. That opener is over 2m 0.5f and the horse runs for the Oliver Greenall & Josh Guerriero stable. This horse has become eye-catchingly well handicapped and now takes a notable drop in grade, I think he can prove that he’s better than this level today.
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Betting advice
- 12:28 Huntingdon - Kahavari @ 5/1 (3 places) - 0.75pt each way
bet365 has the best odds and place terms for Kahavari
At the time of writing, the
best horse racing odds
for Kahavari to win this race stand at 5/1. Several bookmakers are offering that price, but for a race with only seven runners, most are showing just two places, but bet365 is offering three places. This is not the first time that I’ve recommended bet365 for similar reasons, so if you don’t have an account already, then sign up! The current bet365 welcome offer is bet £10, get £30 in free bets. Unbeatable odds and place terms, plus a great sign up deal, what’s not to like!
Kahavari can show his class today and pounce late!
Frankly, Kahavari is better than a 0-110 Handicap Chase and I think he’ll show that today. When you consider the other factors that will suit him, I think he’ll take a fair bit of beating. With a generous three places on offer for this seven runner affair, I think it must be taken advantage of.
Kahavari was travelling well before unseating his jockey at Bangor
It is often the case that French recruits can take a season to acclimatise to British racing. I have seen many theories as to why, but nobody has ever seemed to nail it down, it’s just the way it is more often than not. Kahavari received an opening mark of 118 in the UK and produced form figures of 2U2 last season. In reality those figures read better than the performances, as he was a well beaten second in each completion.
However, after a 202-day break, I was very hopeful we could see a different horse on his second season in the UK off a mark of 115. Frustratingly, he travelled into the race supremely well at Bangor on his seasonal return but shortly after moving into third at four out, he unseated Toby Wynne at three out. That was extremely disappointing as he looked set to run a big race there. It is also worth noting that the race was a Class 3 (0-130) handicap and there looked to be some nice horses involved.
Kahavari has been dropped 6lb since the start of this season
Sadly, since that initial seasonal reappearance, Kahavari has taken a couple of backward steps. First of all, he returned to Bangor over a shorter trip and failed to fire. However, his chance was massively hindered by repeatedly jumping out to his right around the left handed track. Given he didn’t do this on his prior visit suggests it was an after effect of his unseat.
He then went back up in trip at Haydock but he had a couple of elements go against him. Firstly the ground was only Good to Soft and he would prefer it more testing than that. Secondly, it was a very sedate gallop which saw him racing too keenly to do himself justice. Therefore, he has excuses for that run and I would be prepared to look past it.
After those three runs, he has now dropped from a mark of 115 down to just 109 and that now makes him eligible for this 0-110 company today. Given he has had excuses and how nicely he travelled into the race at Bangor on his reappearance, I think he could be very well treated off this mark now and he can show his class against this lesser opposition. After all, judged on his French form, the UK handicapper initially rated him 9lb higher on 118.
With a strong pace expected this race should be run to suit Kahavari
Interestingly, Kahavari has never been tried in any headgear during his six races to date in the UK for team Greenall & Guerriero. However, they have decided to bring in a first time tongue tie. Perhaps they feel he has been struggling to finish off his races and that could be due to a wind issue or perhaps they simply feel it will give Craig Nichol more control over him in the saddle. Either way, it’s always interesting when the first time headgear is tried.
What I also find interesting today is the expected pace of the race. Touquet and A Great Excuse both like to lead, so they could take each other on for the lead. Tree Top Tyson and Synchronist are also never usually far away from the pace and could apply plenty of pressure on the front end too. Therefore, I think this race could set up for a hold up horse that is delivered with a late challenge as the leaders start to get tired. Over this shorter trip and with a strong pace to aim at, I think Kahavari should settle in behind them. Given he drops in class, I would be shocked if he couldn’t go the early pace with them and then given he stays further, he should be strong at the finish.
Can Kahavari secure his first win on UK soil?
In my opinion, there is a whole range of positives for Kahavari’s chance today. His opening mark in the UK of 118 has now dropped 9lb to 109, which leaves him looking well treated. He showed plenty of promise in his first start of the season at Bangor where I believe he was in the process of running a huge race when he unseated his jockey. He now drops down into 0-110 company and I think he’s a better horse than this level. A first time tongue tie goes on and this race should be run to suit.
In terms of the negatives, he is 0/6 in the UK since joining the Greenall & Guerriero team from France. He has also been poor on his last two starts, albeit I do feel he has had excuses for those runs. It’s understandable that his jumping was off on his penultimate start after unseating the run before. He also jumped right handed that day but that wouldn’t be a problem around this right handed track today. Then at Haydock he was not suited by a slow gallop and he shouldn’t have that problem today looking at the race!
At a price of 5/1, with three places on offer, I think he looks to be an excellent each way bet. I would be quite disappointed if he wasn’t up to winning this race barring a major mishap and I’d certainly be shocked if he couldn’t finish in the first three. All of that said, he does need to put in a clean round of jumping, which isn’t guaranteed and I’d have preferred a little more juice in the ground (Soft, Good to Soft in places as I type this). Given these concerns, I have trimmed the stake down to 0.75pt Each Way.
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