Key Points
- Today’s betting tip won this race last year
- She defends her crown off the same handicap mark
- First time cheekpieces are applied and she is the the stable jockey’s choice
After tipping for the Flat at Catterick yesterday, I switch back to the National Hunt racing at Warwick today, where I have found a great each way bet at a double figure price. Today’s card is for one of the three Cheltenham meetings that were abandoned as a result of drainage issues on the track. So we'll see great mid-week action at Warwick, with superb prize money on offer, and very competitive fields.
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Betting advice
- 15:30 Warwick -
Greyval
@ 11/1 (4 places) -
1pt each way
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At the time of writing, the
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This mare has had excuses this season and can bounce back now!
I think Greyval is being overlooked for today’s race, and at a double figure price she looks a great each way bet to me. In this article, I’ll explain the reasons I’m backing her.
Greyval won this race last year
Greyval won a qualifier for this Chepstow race in March 2025. The handicapper only raised her mark 4lb, from 114 to 118, and she capitalised on that leniency by winning the Series Final at Cheltenham next time out. That form was franked by Bethpage, who finished second by a neck, and then went on to win her next two races.
We have a change of racecourse this year, but I don’t think that will hinder Greyval’s chances. Unfortunately Cheltenham suffered drainage issues, was forced to cancel the last three meetings of the season. However, Cheltenham’s loss is Warwick’s gain, as the course will now be hosting this year’s Series Final, which is worth £50,000.
Greyval defends her crown off the same handicap mark
After a disappointing campaign, Greyval comes here to defend her crown off the same handicap mark of 118. She proved last year she is capable of winning off this mark, and I see no reason why she can’t do it again.
Greyval started the season with a spin on the Flat, to blow away the cobwebs and put her right for a valuable race at Chepstow’s Welsh Racing Festival meeting. She only finished fifth that day, but it was a strong race and there was no shame in that, especially off a 7lb higher mark of 125, which was a career high.
Connections subsequently switched her to fences, and she was well beaten by the talented Pic Roc on debut. But she took a big backwards step when only 12th next time out at Cheltenham. She was then switched back to Hurdles at Kempton in a tough Class 2 Handicap over 3m, where she only managed sixth place off a mark of 123. Her latest run was the qualifier for this race at Ludlow, where the ground was unsuitably soft, so her fifth place there is easy to forgive. All of that means her mark is back down to 118, which leaves her dangerously handicapped.
First time cheekpieces are applied and Greyval is the stable jockey’s choice
There are a couple of other noteworthy things about Greyval. Firstly, her three best runs over Hurdles have been on left-handed tracks, so the switch to Warwick, which is also left-handed, won’t bother her. Secondly, all three runs were over intermediate trips on Good ground, which is exactly what she gets here, so the race looks for her.
Greyval’s trainer, Fergal O’Brien, is also running Siog Geal in this race. Although I’m a big fan of the mare, she comes here off a career high mark and it looks a tough ask to me. It may well be that the yard is simply making use of Fern O’Brien’s claim, but I think it’s more likely that stable jockey Jonathan Burke chose to ride Greyval instead.
Lastly, I find it interesting that despite having conditions to suit and a dangerous handicap mark, Greyval wears first time cheekpieces. I see that as a real sign of intent from her yard, suggesting they are giving her every possible chance of successfully defending her crown.
Can Greyval win the Series Final a second time?
I feel there are plenty of reasons to get excited about Greyval’s chance today. Firstly, she won the race last year, and returns this year off the same handicap mark. Fergal O'Brien's stable jockey, Jonathan Burke, chose Greyval over their other runner, Siog Geal, who is nearer to the top of the market. Conditions look perfect for her, with an intermediate trip on a left-handed track and Good going. I also like that she wears first time cheekpieces, which will help her stay focused and travel strongly through the race.
In terms of negatives, I’m struggling to find much! She hasn't won since her victory in this race at Cheltenham last year, but she had excuses. Her first run on the Flat was a pipe opener, and she was 7lb higher at Chepstow in a hot Handicap. Her next two runs were over fences, one being over 3m which didn't suit, and the latest run was on Soft going.
When you consider all of the above and the fact that she is available at a double figure price, I think Greyval is grossly underestimated here. As a result, she is a strong 1pt each way bet for me. I fully expect to see her finish in the first four, but I think she has every chance of winning.
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