Kotari can bounce back with conditions to suit!
We kick off this week’s betting tips with a visit to Nottingham, where I think Kotari is both underestimated and overpriced. On paper he looks to have regressed badly, but in fairness, he hasn’t had conditions to suit for a long time. So, with the going finally in his favour today, I think he can bounce back.
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Betting advice
- 16:00 Nottingham -
Kotari
@ 8/1 -
1pt Win
bet365 offers the best price for Kotari!
At the time of writing, Kotari is widely available at 7/1. However, bet365 has upped the ante with a fantastic price of 8/1. And if the price wasn’t enough to convince you, maybe bet365’s sign up offer will! If you sign up and bet £10, you’ll get £30 in free bets. Superb value on two counts right here!
Is Kotari regressive, or will he fire today?
After plummeting down the handicap over the last 12 months, many have decided to write Kotari off. However, I feel he’s had excuses and I believe he can produce a big performance today! Whether you think I’m right or wrong, here are my thoughts…
Kotari is 15lb below his last winning mark, and handicapped to win here
When he ran at Leicester, at the beginning of October last year, Kotari, was rated 85. Then his next race was the Class 2 November Handicap at Doncaster, worth £36,078 to the winner. That was a huge ask of him, but he was far from disgraced finishing 14th in a 23-runner field.
A few runs prior he won at Ascot, off a mark of 82, producing a RPR of 91. That was just one of the three occasions that he produced a RPR of 90 or above, so it was no fluke performance. However, after a spell in the doldrums, he now finds himself running in a Class 5 Handicap off a mark of just 67.
Being French bred, Kotari thrives when the ground is testing
What I find really interesting about Kotari is that he has never run on genuinely Soft going (or worse) since his November Handicap run, so the ground could be his key to success today.
If we look at his form by going, his runs on Heavy have produced RPRs of 74, 93, 88 and 83. His only run on Soft produced an RPR of 79. If he can reproduce a run to any of those levels today, he has a huge chance off a mark of 67.
At the time of writing, the ground is officially Soft, Good to Soft in places. However, Nottingham is expecting a further 13.4mm of rain to fall overnight, with more to come, which I’m hoping will take the ground to Soft, maybe even leaning towards Heavy. I think the more rain that falls, the better it will turn out for Kotari!
Rob Hornby is booked to ride, and first time blinkers go on!
Rob Hornby is booked for his fourth ride on Kotari here, with one win recorded from his previous three. His most recent ride was last time out for Kotari, where he ran a nice race for a long way before being outpaced at the business end over a shorter trip than today’s. That was at Windsor, which is a track on the sharper side, it was over 1m 3.5f on quicker ground and it developed into a sprint, which didn’t suit the horse at all. This longer trip and softer ground, should be much more to his liking, especially with the long home straight.
I also find it interesting that connections have persevered with cheekpieces, despite his mark falling from 77 to 67 when wearing them. However, taking account of the fact that he now that he seems to have conditions to suit, they’ve switched his headgear over to first time blinkers…
It feels like now or never for Kotari…
The positives for Kotari are obvious to see. He is extremely well handicapped, sitting 15lb below his last winning mark, and he should be suited by the track, trip and ground conditions. In addition, Rob Hornby has been booked to ride, and first time blinkers go on today. If he can produce anything like his best form, he could win this going backwards.
On the flip side, he’s become very hard to trust as he appears to have regressed quickly. As recently as May this year, he was rated 80 and running in Class 3 company and he is now 13lb lower running in Class 5 company. There is a chance he will continue in the same vein, in which case, he won’t be winning this…
However, with so much in his favour, I cannot help but think that he could bounce back with a bang. If he was a short price, I’d be happy to let him go but 8/1 makes him a viable proposition. He has the potential to make a mockery of that price and therefore he has to be a bet here. Judged on the price, you could argue something like half stakes and each way would be suitable but given his profile and fact this likely goes very well or very badly, I’m playing 1pt on the nose.
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