Key Points
- Today’s betting tip has excuses for his three runs in this campaign
- At 3lb below his last winning mark he’s handicapped to win now
- This horse loves Ludlow and is already a two-time winner here
What a week it’s been so far! I kicked the week off with an 11/1 winner in the form of Pallas Lord returning 7.6pts from a 0.5pt each way stake. I backed that up with a huge 2pt each way bet on Planned Paradise, who won in great style at 5/1, returning 16pts. Those two winners mean 5pts staked has turned into 23.6pts. Hopefully we can land the hat-trick today with my selection at Ludlow!
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Betting advice
- 14:07 Ludlow -
Rockinastorm
@ 4/1 -
1pt Win
bet365 has the best odds for Rockinastorm today
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Rockinastorm can make a comeback here!
Although Rockinastorm hasn’t won since December 2024, I think he can turn that around here after some help from the handicapper. Here I’ll explain my reasons for thinking that.
Rockinastorm has excuses for his three runs in this campaign
With form figures of F57 this season, it’s safe to say Rockinastorm has been rather underwhelming. However, I do feel that he has excuses for those poor performances. Rockinastorm was returning from a break of 219 days when he fell in a competitive Handicap at Cheltenham in October. It looked like a tired fall, which is understandable on his first start back.
As a result of that fall, he was off the track for a further 54 days. When he returned, he ran over C&D and led the field until three out. But once headed, he weakened out of the race, suggesting the run was needed once again. Last time out, he stepped up to 3m 4.5f on Soft ground, and he ran a cracker for a long way. However, he got tired and didn’t stay the longer trip in more testing conditions.
At 3lb below his last winning mark Rockinastorm is handicapped to win now
Whilst he needs to bounce back from three poor runs, Rockinthestorm has received help from the BHA Handicapper. On his final start of last season, he raced off 118 and his opening mark for this season was 117. However, after three starts this season, he has now dropped 5lb and races off 112.
If you look back through his form, Rockinastorm won two races last campaign. Those wins were off marks of 113 and 115, with the former at this track. With Rockinastorm now 3lb below his last winning mark, he surely has a chance here!
Rockinastorm loves Ludlow and is already a two-time winner here!
Rockinastorm clearly loves it at Ludlow, as shown by his form figures here of 31215. The first of his wins here was over 2m 7f, the same distance as today’s race, and the latter was over 1.5f further. In addition, between his two wins here, his second place saw him beaten by just a neck at the line. His previous form on this course suggests he can bounce back to his best here and produce course win number three.
Of course, Ballycamus must be respected, having won last time out over C&D, with Rockinthestorm back in fifth. However, the former has been raised 1lb for that, and he is only 1lb below his career high mark now. At the age of nine, is he going to suddenly find improvement to defy the rise, or is he going to struggle? I have a feeling it could well be the latter.
Can Rockinastorm return to winning ways on his return to Ludlow!
Everything looks set for a big run from Rockinastorm at Ludlow today. He had excuses for his three defeats in this campaign, which means he is handicapped to strike off 3lb below his last winning mark. He has a very strong record here at Ludlow, with two wins under his belt already, and I’m hopeful he can make it a hat-trick today.
In terms of negatives, he is winless in seven now, and he was well beaten by the opposing Ballycamus on his penultimate start. That said, I feel he likely needed that run, and he has a 5lb pull at the weights this time, so I’m pretty confident he can reverse the form.
All factors considered, I think 4/1 is a value price for Rockinastorm. Given the positives, I feel he is worth a full 1pt Win bet, but given the negatives, I won’t be going any further than that.
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